The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has arrived on the 224th day. The situation in both directions of Hongliman and Khlsong is very unfavorable to Russia. The Russian army may have to lose more positions before winter comes.
At the same time, Russian state Duma passed the constitutional bill of joining the Russian Federation as the subjects of the federal government. The territory of the Russian Federation will usher in another expansion since 2014.
First of all, we have to talk about the situation in the direction of Hongliman.
As the previous analysis of the military aircraft chart, the loss of the Greater Man triggered a chain reaction of Donomian dominoes. After seizing the Greater Man, the Ukrainian army expanded the results along the Gerlebezi River and pushed the front line to the east as a whole. At the same time, the Ukrainian army on the northern line launched an offensive southward in the direction of Kupyansk, intending to meet with the Ukrainian army coming from the direction of HK Liman. By noon on October 3, the Ukrainian army had made full progress on the northern line of Luhansk Prefecture, and Svato, an important city in the north of Crimina, was in danger.
▲October 3 Luhansk Oblast Western battlefield situation map
From the current Russian Ministry of Defense reaction, it is only a matter of time before Crimina and Svatore fall. If there is no accident, Voyevodivka, North Donetsk, Lisichangsk and other fortresses that are familiar to this summer will also return to the hands of the Ukrainian army in the near future. The suspense is only where the Russian defense line will retreat - Voronezh Oblast ? Rostov-on-Don?
The situation in the direction of Kherson was not much better. The battle between Andri Ivka and Boslev was very tight. Although the Ukrainian army suffered heavy casualties and equipment losses, the troops filling the line were continuously continuously, and the Russian coalition was struggling to resist. The overall movement trend of the southern front line was that Ukraine advanced and Russia retreated. The pro-Russian residents in the war zone that had just been submitted to Russia may face the risk of being liquidated after the Ukrainian army recovered the lost land.
Generally speaking, the Russian army felt like they were defeated after the referendum. Before, the southern line and the northern line were pushed together, but now the northern line and the southern line retreated together.
has retreated and advanced in the front, which is indeed true, but important cities such as Chongliman, North Donetsk, and Lisichangsk have a very heavy price to win. If you want to make a comeback after taking it, the price you pay may double. Therefore, the decision to abandon the defense should be evaluated very carefully before making it, rather than letting abandon the defense become the only option as it is now.
In addition, the Russian Ministry of Defense did not make a decision in the battle of Lisichangsk this summer, which made too many thunders bury the Ukrainian army. It is waiting for explosions one by one in October.
Although the Ukrainian army is strong in counterattack, the conclusion that the Russian army is really strong and whether it can defeat the Ukrainian army has to wait.
first, Russian Duma has just passed the legal status of the four eastern parts of Ukraine, which means that the Russian army has lacked some legal basis to protect the four eastern parts of Ukraine before. Now, Russia has a reason to declare war on the Ukrainian army. Once war is declared, it means that Russia may adopt indiscriminate bombing. Just imagine, if the Ukrainian army has all entered the places such as Chongliman, Lisichangsk, and the Russian army will have a wave of cluster bombing, how much will the Ukrainian army lose?
Of course, if the Ukrainian army can continue to attack and the Russian army still can't come up with any means, it really proves that Russia is not strong enough.
Second, some Russian military mobilization has just begun. Many new recruits need to receive necessary military training before they can go to the battlefield. This means that the Russian army will probably have a large number of reinforcements before winter comes. It remains to be seen whether Russia can launch a large counterattack at that time, but if the military centers are lost one after another before this, the morale of the Russian army will be a problem.
Third, why is Ukraine fighting against the Russian army now? In fact, the domestic economy has basically stagnated. For Russia, Putin still wants to use limited military investment to achieve its established goals. Seeing that it is impossible to swallow more Ukrainian territory, Russia obviously wants to stop.If this continues, Europe and the United States will be under great pressure, because supporting Ukraine's military weapons and equipment is one aspect, and large-scale support for Ukraine's economy is also a huge consumption.
It has to be admitted that Russia has fought so much recently. How good is it? Even Elon Musk can't stand .
▲Elon Musk predicted the final outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the results of netizens voting
Elon Musk recently tweeted to announce his prediction of the outcome of this round of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The key points of the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict predicted by Musk are as follows:
○Referendum into the fourth district of Russia and the fourth district will re-enter the referendum under the supervision of Ukrainian . If residents of the referendum area agree, Russia will leave.
○ Crimea officially became part of Russia because it has been like this since 1783 (it’s all the blame for Khrushchev ).
○ (Ukraine) promises to ensure water supply to Crimean Peninsula .
○Ukraine maintains a neutral position.
As of 7:00 on October 4, nearly 1.9 million netizens participated in the voting options set by Musk. As a result, 62% of netizens did not agree with Musk's prediction, and another 37% of netizens supported Musk's prediction.
▲ Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany Andre Melnik angrily pissed Musk
This prediction of Musk successfully angered both the Ukrainians and the Russians.
Ukrainians naturally would not agree to recognize Crimea as part of Russia, and the latest battle situation has allowed many Ukrainians to see hope. There are many people in Ukrainians who believe that the Ukrainian army has recovered Crimea. It is worth mentioning that Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany Andrei Melnik even directly attacked Musk without regard for his image as a diplomat.
Russians do not agree with Musk's prediction.
Crimea is a level of "since ancient times" in Russia's cognition. For the Russians, Crimea has no objection to returning to Russia's embrace, and its status naturally does not need to be discussed again.
As for the water supply problem on the Crimean Peninsula, it is undoubtedly the most secure solution for Russia to win Khlsson. Russia does not expect Ukraine to ensure water supply to Crimea after this battle. The only way is to win Khlsson.
Musk's prediction may have problems of one kind or another, but the sentence he added is correct - Before the finale of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, many people will die due to this war.
Although Ukraine is counterattacking, the casualties paid by it are obviously much higher than those of the Russian army. The Russian army can now lose its weapons and must not lose its lives. Although there are often news that Russian weapons and equipment are captured, few large-scale Russian troops have been hit. Obviously, the Ukrainian army's offensive capabilities are still focused on the competition for fixed targets, and the Russian army's ability to transfer and annihilate.
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