Editor of every business: Du Yu
According to CCTV News, on October 12 local time, Feder released the September Feder (FOMC) meeting minutes. According to the content released in the minutes of the meeting, the Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates by at in November and December respectively. market participants generally expect that the pace of interest rate hikes will slow further after December, and fund interest rates will peak in the first half of 2023.
According to Cailianshe, real estate billionaire and former CEO of Starwood Group Barry Sternlicht recently said that the Federal Reserve's eagerness to raise interest rates and curb inflation is "draining" the US stock market .
Image source: Photo Network-401699920
will still raise interest rates sharply? The Federal Reserve revealed heavy information
On October 12th local time, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in September. According to the minutes of the meeting, the Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates by 75 basis points and 50 basis points respectively at the November and December meetings. market participants generally expect that the pace of interest rate hikes will slow further after December, and fund interest rates will peak in the first half of 2023.
In addition, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 12th showed that U.S. PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month in September, higher than Dow Jones's expected with 30.2% ; it increased by 8.5% year-on-year, lower than the 8.7% increase in August. On Thursday, the CPI (Consumer Price Index), which measures inflation levels, will also be announced, which will become an important basis for the Federal Reserve's policy on hikes in November.
The Federal Open Market Committee decided in September to increase the target range of federal funds rate to between 3% and 3.25%, and is expected to continue to increase the fund rate appropriately. In addition, the Commission will continue to reduce its holdings of Treasury bonds, institutional debt and institutional mortgage-backed securities .
Fed director Bowman: If there is no sign of downward inflation, it is still possible to raise interest rates "significantly"
Fed director Bowman said that if there is no sign of downward inflation, it is still possible to raise interest rates "significantly". Fully support the Fed's previous 75 basis points rate hike. Federal funds rates need to rise to limiting levels and stay there for "a while." Inflation is too high and it must be lowered, and if inflation starts to decline, it will be appropriate to slow down the pace of rate hikes. It is not clear how high interest rates need to rise, and the significant uncertainty of the inflation outlook makes it challenging to provide accurate guidance on the interest rate path.
According to Securities Times , however, some dovish statements were also reported in the meeting. Some members pointed out that in the current highly uncertain global economic and financial environment, it is important to adjust the pace of monetary policy tightening and reduce the negative risks to economic expectations. After the minutes of the meeting, the U.S. Treasury yield fell, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell to 3.9%, but it was still at a high level.
Real estate billionaire: The Federal Reserve is "draining" the stock market, and all fish will die
Real estate billionaire and former Starwood CEO Barry Sternlichter (Barry) Sternlicht recently said that the Fed's eagerness to raise interest rates and curb inflation is "draining" the U.S. stock market. He warned that as the economy and liquidity begin to shrink, even "healthy fish" will die. In an interview, he criticized the Fed for slow response in dealing with the market conditions of inflation and excess liquidity. Soaring prices finally prompted the Fed to raise interest rates sharply and began to shrink its balance sheet this year, but economists warned that a rapid pace of tightening could easily drag the U.S. economy into recession.
"Powell did this too late, incredible. When the meme stock craze began, he sat motionless. "He added that the belated reaction could wipe out the gains of investors across the market.
Sternlicht likens the stock market to a "pond", noting that there are also "smart fish" in the pond, but "if you think healthy fish will survive and sick fish will die, you're wrong, Fed is draining the water from the entire pond, so all fish will die .""
Legendary boss warned: A "perfect storm" is forming in the United States
Picture source: Photo Network-500853338
On October 11th local time, The founder of the world's largest hedge fund Bridgewater and legendary investor Dalio (Ray Dalio warned that with the Fed's continuous interest rate hike, a "perfect storm" is forming in the United States and will cause economic pain to spread.
Dalio said that the U.S. government's stimulus plan during the epidemic has caused an economic bubble. The easing policy has caused unprecedented inflation in the United States, and now the Federal Reserve is stepping on the brakes, which will cause a huge regression. Coupled with international geopolitical conflicts this year, multiple factors have contributed to a "perfect storm".
Dalio added that when the federal funds rate exceeds 4.5%, it may put the U.S. economy into recession. On Tuesday, U.S. President Biden said, "If the U.S. economy has a recession, it will also be a very slight recession."
Wall Street giants warn: it may fall 20% again
Image source: Photo Network-500911049
According to brokerage China, some authoritative institutions are not optimistic about the peripheral market. S&P report shows that the global recession risk has deepened; at present, Wall Street giants' expectations for the US stock market are also quite pessimistic. On October 10, local time, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned that S&P 500 index may continue to fall, and the decline may "easily fall another 20%" from the current level. In addition, Michael, the big short seller on Wall Street and Morgan Stanley chief strategist. Wilson also stated in the latest report that the S&P 500 index will drop to 3,000 points, the price-to-earnings ratio will further drop to 13 times, and the US stock market will bottom out and the bear market will end.
Dimon said that soaring inflation rate, interest rate increase exceeds expectations, the unknown impact of quantitative tightening policies, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine are all very serious problems, which may push the US and global economies into recession, and the US may fall into some kind of recession after 6 to 9 months.
The three major U.S. stock indexes closed down Nasdaq continued to hit a new low since July 2020
Eastern Time on October 12, three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed down , the S&P 500 fell 0.33%, the Nasdaq fell 0.09%, and the Dow fell 0.1%. The S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq fell six consecutive times, the S&P 500 index closed at its lowest level since November 2020, and Nasdaq continued to hit a new low since July 2020.
Daily Economic News Comprehensive CCTV News, Cailianshe, Securities China, Securities Times
Daily Economic News
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-