With a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.3 times, ACBS Securities believes that it is an attractive opportunity to invest in securities. The Vietnamese market is traded at the cheapest price in the ASEAN region.
From a regional perspective, except for Indonesian and Singapore , most stock markets recorded negative growth compared with the beginning of the year. Compared with the beginning of the year, the Vietnam Index almost fell the most, at negative 25.0%, comparable to the Hang Seng Index and Taiwan Stock Exchange indexes.
In terms of valuation, VN-Index currently has a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.3 times (as of September 28, 2022), 19.6% lower than the 10-year average of 15.3 times.
ACBS Securities considers this an attractive investment opportunity. Vietnamese stock market trading prices are the cheapest in ASEAN.
compares the stock markets in Vietnam and other markets in the region.
Regarding profit growth, ACBS predicts that the profits of listed companies in Vietnam will increase by 17.5% over the previous year. The momentum comes from the banking industry, industrial parks and the recovery of domestic consumption after the epidemic.
It is worth noting that ACBS expects the stock market to return to normal in 2023. By then the valuation will return to its historical highs. However, the rest of the year will continue to trade around valuations from the market to April, with market sentiment being depressed.
3 scenarios of the VN index in the last 6 months of 2022
In the basic scenario, ACBS maintained a 19% profit outlook by the end of 2022 thanks to the banking, transportation, real estate and utility sectors. As the impact of the Ukrainian war begins to emerge and the heavy pressure on the anti-corruption action the country has taken, the possibility that the VN index will trade within the valuation range recorded in the second quarter of 2022 has increased investor confidence. This caused the Vietnam Index to fall by about 1,400 points by the end of 2022. The optimistic scenario of
is based on the recovery of global international flights; the positive impact of the Vietnamese government's financial and currency package ; corporate profits exceed expectations; as global and domestic problems are resolved, there may be signs that the worst period has passed, investor sentiment remains optimistic by the end of the year. By then, ACBS assumes the return multiple will return to 15 times and the VN-Index will reach 1,500 - 1,600 points.
In a pessimistic situation, uncertainty and fear continue to shroud global markets and inflation concerns are intensifying. Central Bank deals with inflationary pressure by raising interest rates. China's economic slowdown will extend the disruption time of global supply chains. Even a new variant of COVID-19 that threatens economic activity.
The above factors will drag down profits below expectations. Stock market valuations fell due to new investors' indifference and cautious observations. The Vietnam Index will be difficult to rise by the end of the year and close at around 1,200 points.
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