In recent months, in order to cope with the serious energy dilemma, many European countries have increased their dependence on traditional energy such as coal and oil. On June 21, European Commission President von der Leyen warned European countries to "cannot go back to the dirty fossil fuel era."
However, restarting coal-fired power does not mean that the EU will soon "reversal" in energy policies. In fact, the EU has accelerated its energy transformation.
On the one hand, the EU's environmental protection package "Fit for 55" made a major breakthrough in June this year. The European Parliament passed three core contents of the plan with a majority of votes: revision of the EU's carbon emission trading system, a new carbon border adjustment mechanism and a social climate fund.
On the other hand, in recent months, European countries have increased their efforts to introduce clean energy such as photovoltaics and wind energy in China. In May this year, the European Commission on Foreign Relations (ECFR) issued a report proposing that the development of European green energy will further rely on China's related industrial supporting facilities.
"Fighting left and right" energy policy
html On June 20, Austrian Prime Minister Carl Nehammer announced that he would restart and transform his country's power plant in the Merah district "to use coal to generate electricity again in an emergency." html On June 20, Dutch Climate and Energy Minister Rob Jetten announced that the cabinet will soon amend the law to lift the restrictions on the operation of its own coal-fired plants up to 35% capacity, allowing these plants to operate at full capacity until 2024. html On June 19, the German Ministry of Economic Affairs announced that it would restart domestic coal-fired power plants to increase power generation by up to 10 GW, exceeding Germany's annual new photovoltaic power generation over the years. html On June 16, the Greek government postponed its plan to decommission its coal-fired power plant until 2028, and increased its planned coal mining volume this year and next year. html On June 27, the French Ministry of Energy Transformation issued a statement saying that it is currently "considering" to reopen the coal-fired power station that was closed in March this year in Saint-Avold, eastern France this winter.In fact, the relaxation of coal policies in Europe began to emerge after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
html At the end of December, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi said that the country may reopen closed coal-fired power plants. Shortly afterwards, Enel SpA, the largest utility in Italy, said it would cancel its plans to convert its two largest coal-fired power plants into natural gas.In April this year, according to Bloomberg, Polish said that "it hopes to use coal to generate electricity after 2049 to strengthen its energy security." According to the "EU Green New Deal", the time point for Europe to reach carbon neutrality is 2050.
Also in April, the British Telegraph disclosed that British Commerce Secretary Kwatten wrote a letter to coal-fired power companies that are planning to close this year, asking them to "keep the turbine operation" this winter. Data from the Fraunhof Institute of Solar Systems in Germany shows that since March this year, coal-fired power generation in Europe has surged by 51%.
, on the one hand, accelerates the process of carbon emission tax , and on the other hand, strengthens local coal production capacity. Behind these seemingly "fighting left and right" or even "double standards" measures are the EU's unsuccessful responses to the " gray rhino " in the face of energy shortage and the uncertainty brought about by geopolitics and climate change.
On March 18, local time, in Athens, Greece, farmers gathered on the road in car to protest the rise in energy prices. Photo/IC photo
Winter is coming: Climate change intensifies the crisis
In fact, long before the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, Europe's energy shortage was already very serious in 2021. French, Spain, Slovakia and other countries were once forced to cut production or even stop production.
According to Statista statistics, in December 2021, the average monthly electricity price of Germany, France, Italy, Switzerland , Hungary , Greek and other countries rose by about 40% compared with the same period in 2020, soaring from 40 euros per megawatt-hour to more than 200 euros per megawatt-hour.
According to research by the European Institute for Environmental Policy (IEEP), the main reasons for energy shortages are due to unprecedented peaks in heating and cooling caused by the recovery in consumption in 2021. According to the assessment by the European Union's Climate Monitoring Agency, Copernicus Centre for Climate Change Services (C3S), Europe experienced the hottest summers and coldest winters ever, accompanied by fires, droughts and floods. According to the news released by World Meteorological Organization in June this year, 2022 is likely to be the third year since 1950 for the "three peaks of La Nina" (the La Nina phenomenon occurred in three consecutive winters in the northern hemisphere), and the climate change, temperature and precipitation fluctuations it brings may continue until 2023.
In other words, under the cloud of energy shortage, Europe's energy demand may further increase due to extreme weather in the second half of 2022.
consulting firm Rystad Energy estimates that by the end of October this year, the EU's natural gas storage facilities could reach two-thirds of storage levels, lower than the EU's previously proposed four-fifths of target. On June 30, the Economist published an article warning that if the "North Stream" natural gas pipeline under repair fails to restart on time after the repair is over, the European natural gas storage level may be only 60% before winter this year.
Most EU countries enter winter in October, and winter is approaching, so there is not much time left for the EU.
European countries develop new energy, which is beneficial to China's related industries
What will Europe do in the energy dilemma?
coal is obviously not a long-term option. Even if governments can overcome political pressure, the current coal capacity equivalent in Europe is not large. According to the International Energy Agency's estimates, even if the coal-fired plants that were successfully restored and closed down, filled in aging equipment, and equipped with relevant professional and technical personnel, the total production capacity was only about 28 billion cubic meters of natural gas, which was difficult to make up for the gap in the energy substitution of about 100 billion cubic meters of natural gas proposed by the EU in the "REPowerEU" energy package in March this year. .
. Due to its safety hazards and waste disposal problems, the European government often has political risks in promoting nuclear power. In addition, the high construction cost, long cycle and complex approval characteristics are also very difficult to promote production expansion in the short term.
market has given the answer. According to the analysis of China's customs export data by PV InfoLink, photovoltaic module exports in January-May 2022 reached 63.4 gigawatts (GW), a year-on-year increase of 102%. Among them, the European region imported a total of 33.3 GW from January to May, an increase of 144% year-on-year, accounting for 52% of the total export volume. It is the region with strong demand growth and the largest total demand among the five major sales areas (Europe, Asia Pacific, America, Africa, Middle East ). Among them, there are seven European countries that import more than 1 GW of photovoltaic modules in China: Netherlands, Spain, Germany, Poland, Greece, Portugal and France.
It is predicted that the European market demand for China's photovoltaic modules is expected to reach 65 GW this year, surpassing the 40.9 GW record set in 2021.
In addition, in April this year, the Port of Taranto Wind Power Plant in southern Italy, built by a Chinese enterprise, was officially put into operation, successfully completing the first appearance of my country's offshore wind power complete machine project to go overseas in Europe.
Recently, at the 10th World Peace Forum, many international politicians and experts told the New Beijing Think Tank that the only way for the EU to solve the energy dilemma is to "bet" on new energy.
EU Ambassador to China Yu Bai (Nicolas Chapuis) told the Beijing Think Tank that since the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, Europe has paid a great price. Many European countries have encountered difficulties in energy and need to "get energy help in this regard from Norway , the United States, Qatar , Indonesia , and Japan, but this is not enough, so the core of the problem is how to accelerate our energy transformation. This conflict (Russia and Ukraine) will force us to transform to green energy as soon as possible."
Robin Niblett, director and CEO of the Royal Institute of International Affairs, believes that energy pressure will further encourage "intergovernmental elimination of barriers and achieve interconnection between energy grids and oil and gas grids within EU countries and between the UK and the EU".
Danish ambassador to China Thomas Østrup Møller said that restarting coal is a transitional act because "now "generating a unit of renewable energy generates electricity cheaper than coal unit of electricity, and using coal is not an economic act."
Next step, the EU may accelerate its investment in innovation in the field of clean energy. "We now know how to produce solar and wind energy. We already understand these technologies. What we need to do is to further improve efficiency. This is where we need to cooperate." Ambassador Mueller said, "If we want to overcome the current crisis, the only way is that countries around the world must cooperate better."
The "gray rhino" of energy shortage has prompted the EU to accelerate energy transformation and seek international cooperation, which will bring new development opportunities to China's new energy industries such as photovoltaics.
text / Senior researcher at the Beijing Think Tank Kong Xue
editing / Li Xiaoxiao
proofreading / Zhao Lin
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