01
Yesterday, the Japanese stock market was resting, avoiding the day when Asian stock markets generally fell. However, today, the Japanese stock market just opened and , and it had already fallen by 570 points, a drop of 2.1%.
This is not only a make-up decline, but also a continuation of the continued decline of US stocks last night.
The United States will release PPI data tomorrow and CPI data on Thursday. It is expected that CPI will still be at 8.1% or higher.
Although Feder has repeatedly emphasized that inflation is reaching a peak and falling, it is still in an absolute high inflation range compared with the past 40 years, which is still far from the real peak and falling, and there is even a high possibility of rebounding in the future.
The previous PCE price index has rebounded compared with the previous month.
The current economic data model predicts that the probability of the Federal Reserve hiring rate hiring 50 basis points in November is less than 20%, and the probability of hiring rate hiring 75 basis points is as high as 82%.
The United States has repeatedly raised interest rates sharply, but inflation is difficult to fall. No wonder JPMorgan Chase CEO warned everyone that the United States will officially enter a recession by mid-next year.
02
For ordinary Americans, the most pessimistic time has not yet reached.
The problem most American families face is the rise in prices, but income has not yet shrunk, and the employment rate is not bad.
For household assets, the main thing that has been significantly reduced now is stock assets. However, most ordinary Americans do not directly enter the market to buy stocks, but hold stocks through mutual funds , pension funds, etc., so the feeling after the asset shrinks is not too strong.
However, after the economy continues to deteriorate, the decline in real estate prices may bring a more pessimistic feeling.
The United States' continued interest rate hike will be used in real estate from two aspects.
On the one hand, the continuous increase in interest rates has caused new home buyers to be discouraged. Ordinary families who have already purchased houses are facing increasingly higher and higher pressure to repay loans.
On the other hand, the continuous interest rate hikes have also led to a worsening of the economic situation. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.4% next year, which means a large number of new unemployed people have emerged, and the income of home buyers has decreased, making it more difficult to afford the increasing mortgage.
In July and August this year, real estate prices in the United States have seen a significant month-on-month decline, and the decline has expanded significantly.
However, obviously the current decline is not too large, it can only be considered an adjustment. With the arrival of the recession, the future decline may reach 20%, or even higher.
03
Of course, the problems facing the United States are in the future, while the problems facing the Japan are in the current progress.
When the dollar index fell last week, the yen exchange rate did not rise significantly. When the US dollar index rose again, the yen exchange rate began to fall rapidly.
Last Friday, the exchange rate of the yen had fallen below 145.
When it fell below 145 in September, the Bank of Japan invested 30 trillion yen to enter the market to save the market . This time it fell below 145 again. Is there any better way for Japan?
No matter what, the Bank of Japan is currently trying to avoid using the shrinking monetary policy and firmly adopt the negative interest rate policy without hikes. Because Japan's economic bubble is too big, once interest rates are raised, it is very likely that the scene of a hard economic landing in the 1990s will be repeated.
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