In the early morning of the 5th, Beijing time, US stocks maintained their upward trend at the end of Tuesday, with major stock indexes rebounding for the second consecutive day, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by more than 1,500 points in two days. Investors continue to pay attention to whether the Fed's tightening monetary policy will turn. US bond yields continue to decline, the US dollar falls, and the money market expects federal funds rate to peak in March next year.
Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 753.41 points, or 2.55%, to 30244.30 points; Nasdaq rose 338.74 points, or 3.13%, to 11154.17 points; S&P 500 rose 103.69 points, or 2.82%, to 3782.12 points.
Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by more than 1,500 points for two consecutive days.
U.S. Treasury yields continued to decline on Tuesday, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling to 3.583%. The yield exceeded 4% last week.
USD fell to its lowest level since September 22, and the rebound of the pound caused the USD to face significant resistance. Britain's withdrawal from a tax cut has eased tensions over the government's fiscal health, despite doubts about the pound's prospects.
US stocks closed higher on Monday. Some analysts believe that some of the adverse factors faced by US stocks are easing and boosting investor sentiment.
People hope the latest signs of weak U.S. economy will prompt the Fed to reconsider its aggressive monetary tightening policy, while money markets expect federal funds rates to peak in March next year, with traders lowering their bets on the Fed's rate hike.
Investors believe that after the 3 percentage point rate hike began to have an impact on the economy, the U.S. manufacturing data was weaker than expected, supporting the Fed's dovish tendency.
Data released by the American Institute of Supply Management (ISM) on Monday showed that the ISM manufacturing industry purchasing managers index in September was 50.9%, lower than 52.8% in August, and the lowest level since May 2020, lower than expected; the final value of the manufacturing industry purchasing managers index (PMI) was 52, slightly higher than the expected 51.8.
JP Morgan pointed out that the global manufacturing PMI fell to 49.8 in September, the first contraction in more than two years.
The major U.S. stock index rebounded after experiencing a decline in September and third quarters on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed higher at 765 points on the same day, up nearly 2.7%, marking its best single-day performance since June 24. The S&P 500 rose about 2.6%, the largest single-day gain since July 27. The Nasdaq rose about 2.3%. "This is a rebound after the market pressure is released." He warned not to regard the stock market's performance as a trend, because the stock market rise one day driven by the release of pressure cannot change the whole story.
U.S. stocks rebounded on Monday, prompting investors to want to determine whether U.S. stocks have bottomed out. Before the US stock market rebounded yesterday, it had been more than six months since the US stock market fell into a bear market, and the S&P 500 has fallen by about 25% from its recent high.
Investors' pessimism about the stock market has reached its peak, and they invest their funds in other assets. Goldman Sachs' investor sentiment indicator was negative for the 31st week in a row, close to record levels.
Goldman Sachs strategists said this means the end of the "there is no choice but to stocks" (TINA) period. However, extreme pessimism is seen as a counter-trend bullish indicator.
The latest AAII US retail investor sentiment index shows that the number of short sellers (i.e. people who believe that stocks are lower in the next six months) exceeds 60% for the second consecutive week.
Due to the deterioration of bond liquidity and credit technology, Bank of US 's bull and bear indicator is still at the maximum bearish level of 0.0. But strategist Michael Hartnett warned that the indicator’s counter-trend buy signal did not work when a financial crisis occurred like in 2008.
Deutsche Bank analyst Jim Reid said: "There are a number of factors that have driven the US stock market to rebound on Monday, but the main reason is that more and more investors speculate that the Fed may soon turn to a more dovish stance, especially after the market turmoil in the past few weeks."
Morgan Stanley analyst Mike Wilson believes that the Fed will have to follow the Bank of England, end the quantitative tightening and restart quantitative easing, which will prompt the stock market to continue to rebound.
Dutch International Group said: "The market is going to launch a counterattack, but is there enough evidence to show that the policy is going to turn? We don't think it's yet.The Bank of England's reluctance to buy Phnom Penh bonds shows that it has not yet given up on its fight against inflation. "It is reported that the Bank of England purchased only £22 million in gold-edged bonds on Monday and rejected a offer of nearly £2 billion. "The Bank of England may begin to realize that hikes too quickly (especially in Europe) will lead to a severe recession, so they will slow down and reduce volatility." "
Dutch International Bank strategists are still skeptical of the Fed's imminent turnaround policy: "Friday's employment report may trigger a new round of hawkish repricing, which is a positive event for the US dollar. "
PineBridge Investments portfolio manager Hani Redha pointed out: "The bear market is not always going down. We expect the US stock market to be in a bear market throughout the year, and there is a very typical bear market rebound in the middle, which is expected. ”
New York Fed President Williams pointed out on Monday that given the current imbalance in supply and demand for the economy, it may take years to return to the target level. Deutsche Bank analyst Reid said Williams’s speech was not entirely a policy turnaround signal from the Fed’s core.
The currency market currently expects the Fed to raise interest rates by up to 125 basis points by March next year, while the market expects to raise interest rates by up to 165 basis points after the third rate hike last month. Michael Brown, chief strategist at CaxtonFX, said: “In fact, the Fed has only one goal now: bring inflation back to the 2% target. Unless we see inflation data improve for several consecutive months, it is hard to imagine the Fed turning, and next month, the Fed rate hike 75 basis points is still my basic assumption. It's hard to do too much in this case. "
On Tuesday, overseas central banks, the RBA unexpectedly raised only 25 basis points, raising the cash rate to 2.6%, lower than the market's general expectations of 50 basis points. Before that, the RBA had raised interest rates by 50 basis points.
Tuesday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the September job opening and Labor Turnover survey report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, JOLTS), the U.S. has 10.1 million job openings in August, with a total of 6.3 million recruiting and a total of 6 million resignations.
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Apple iPhone export value in India doubled. It is reported that in the five months since April, Apple exported iPhones from India exceeded $1 billion. At the current rate, iPhone phones made in India will reach $2.5 billion in the 12 months to March 2023.
According to reports, the European Parliament approved new rules on Tuesday, starting from the fall of 2024, USB type-C will become the standard charging interface for small electronic devices such as smartphones and tablets. Starting from 2026, USB-C will also become the standard interface for laptop chargers. This vote confirmed the earlier agreement reached between EU agencies, which will make USB-C connectors for Android-based devices the EU standard, forcing Apple to change the charging ports of its iPhones and other devices. After the directive comes into effect, the committee will have two years to formulate new rules to regulate wireless charging technology.
Boeing is not expected to complete the certification of 737MAX10 by next summer. According to a letter sent by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) on Monday, it is expected that Boeing will not complete 737MAX by next summer. 10 aircraft certification. Unless it is granted extension from Congress, Boeing must meet the new modern cockpit alarm requirements, which may significantly delay the launch of the aircraft.
Credit Suisse whistleblower deletes posts that it may be on the verge of bankruptcy. There were market rumors that a large investment bank is on the verge of bankruptcy. Some overseas self-media speculated that one of them may be Credit Suisse. The market is worried that it may become the "next Lehman Brothers ", triggering the global financial crisis .
The latest news on Tuesday showed that David Taylor, the official starter of the news and a business journalist of ABC Australia, has deleted the social media post that has attracted widespread attention.
data shows that "My Wood" Casey Wood bought 2.13 million shares of at the bottom when Tesla fell sharply on Monday.
Rivian announced that it will produce 7,363 vehicles in the third quarter of this year and deliver 6,584 vehicles. The company maintains its annual output of 25,000 vehicles unchanged.
It is reported that HSBC Holdings is considering selling its Canadian business for billions of pounds.
Other markets, New York Mercantile Exchange's December gold futures closed up 1.7% at $1,730.50 per ounce. December silver futures closed up 2.5% at $21.099 per ounce.
11 natural gas futures closed up 5.67% at $6.8370 per million British thermal units. Brent crude oil rose 3.31% to $91.8 per barrel.
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