As the "nine-in-one" election on the island continues to approach, the competition between the three major camps of blue, green and white is becoming more and more intense. According to Global Network citing reports from the island media, on October 7, the "Internet Thermometer" announced the latest forecast election rate of the "Six Capitals" on the island. The Kuomintang temporarily led in New Taipei City, , Taipei City, Taoyuan City, and Taichung City, while the Democratic Progressive Party temporarily led in Tainan City, Kaohsiung City and other places.
Taiwan has a total of 22 counties and cities, among which Taipei, New Taipei , Taoyuan, Taichung , Tainan and Kaohsiung are the so-called "six capitals", and their population accounts for more than 70% of the total Taiwan. Judging from the current election situation, the DPP is as stable as Mount Tai in Tainan City and Kaohsiung City, and the KMT's election situation in New Taipei and Taichung is also stable. The focus of the competition between the two sides is Taipei City and Taoyuan City. However, after the plagiarism storm of Lin Zhijian's paper and the slander of Zhang Shujuan in Zhou Yukou, the DPP's election situation in Taipei City and Taoyuan City is worrying. Taipei Mayor Candidate Chen Shizhong and Taoyuan Mayor Candidate Zheng Yunpeng's support ratings are lower than those of opponents Jiang Wan'an and Zhang Shanzheng .
Currently, most of the media on the island will focus on Taipei City, and the election in Taipei City is still very stalemate. In addition to the island media "Internet Thermometer" released a forecast poll, on October 7, the island's political commentary program " Critical Moment " also released the latest poll of the Taipei City election conducted by "Beautiful Island Electronic News". Jiang Wanan, who ranked first, had a support rate of 29.6%, Huang Shanshan, who was non-party, had a 28.1%, and Chen Shizhong was 27.8%. Judging from the published data, the poll values of the three people are very close, which means that any chance opportunity can have a certain reversal.
, head of Meilidao Electronic News, Wu Zijia, believes that the polls of Jiang, Huang and Chen are all entangled. Just like Twist Mahua, there is no problem of first place and second place. As for whether DPP candidate Chen Shizhong will be abandoned, Wu Zijia believes that Chen Shizhong still has the basic foundation of the DPP to support it. Although the hatred value among the three candidates is the highest, the final vote rate will not be too low.
Wu Zijia also analyzed that in the 2018 Taipei mayoral election, Ke Wenzhe only won more than 3,000 more votes than the Kuomintang candidate Ding Shouzhong, and won with a very weak advantage. Yao Wenzhi, the then candidate for Taipei mayor of the Democratic Progressive Party, received only 17% of the votes, and after the election failed, he withdrew from politics sadly. The reason why Huang Shanshan ran for election as an independent member rather than the identity of People's Party is actually to copy Ke Wen-je's victory experience in 2018 and gain the most support from middle-aged voters. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that Huang Shanshan will surpass Jiang Wanan in the future.
This Taipei mayoral election reappears to a "three-legged" posture, and the poll data of all parties are also different. But what is basically certain is that many polls show that among Jiang, Huang and Chen, the DPP candidate Chen Shizhong is extremely likely to win in Taipei City.
What made Chen Shizhong worse was that some media on the island analyzed that although Chen Shizhong received "emperorial choice" from Tsai Ing-wen and strong support from the "British faction" within the DPP, other factions of the DPP were very unfavorable. As early as when the Democratic Progressive Party discussed the Taipei mayoral candidates, Lin Jialong, who was not a "British" group, kept a close eye on the Taipei mayor's nomination, and he himself had been preparing for this, but the result was surprising. Tsai Ing-wen "selected" his confidant Chen Shizhong.
Nowadays, the DPP's strength is mainly concentrated in Hsinchu City, attacking the People's Party Hsinchu Mayor candidate Gao Hongan. From this we can see that Chen Shizhong has no way to get the full support from the DPP.
In fact, it is not surprising that the DPP will focus its campaign on Hsinchu City. Previously, the former "legislator" of the DPP, Guo Zhengliang, once analyzed that the DPP cares most about not the victory or defeat of the election between Taoyuan and Taipei, but the most about Hsinchu City and Yilan County . Guo Zhengliang explained that Hsinchu City is Lin Zhijian's territory, and the support rate of the People's Party's Hsinchu mayoral candidate Gao Hongan remains high, and the DPP hopes to be able to keep it. Yilan County has always been the old nest of the Democratic Progressive Party, but it has been ruled by the Kuomintang for a long time, so the Democratic Progressive Party also wants to get it back.In order to get back to Hsinchu City and Yilan County, the DPP is doing everything possible.
In Hsinchu City, Mirror Weekly revealed that Gao Hongan's doctoral thesis was suspected of plagiarism, and behind the weekly was the "British Department" of the Democratic Progressive Party; in Yilan County, the Democratic Progressive Party has been conducting "judicial pursuit" against the Kuomintang county magistrate Lin Zimiao.
At present, the election situation in Hsinchu has changed to certain changes. According to the latest Hsinchu mayor's election rate released by the "Internet Thermometer" on October 7, the People's Party Gao Hongan is still temporarily leading with 36.1%. Shen Huihong of the Democratic Progressive Party has achieved a catching up, surpassing the Kuomintang Lin Gengren's 31.4% with 32.5%, temporarily ranking second. The forecast election rate on October 1 showed that Lin Gengren was leading Shen Huihong's 31.7% at that time.
As the "nine-in-one" elections on the island approach, the future elections may become more and more intense.
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