2022 has passed the first half of the year, and a "selling wave" has occurred in the real estate market. According to data, there are currently 2 central cities of 11html, and the number of second-hand houses listed exceeds 100,000 units, and most of them are high-level cities: Hangzhou lists more than 170,000 units, Chongqing lists more than 160,000 units, Tianjin lists 115.20,000 units, Chengdu lists 114.8.200 units, Shenyang lists 113.5.200 units, Wuhan lists 112.6.200 units, Nanjing, , Suzhou lists 20,000 units, Xi'an, Guangzhou, and Harbin lists 110.200 units. At present, the scope of this round of "selling wave" is still expanding.
There are two main reasons for the "selling wave" in the real estate market in the first half of the year: one is that the domestic real estate market has lost the money-making effect. For a long time, real estate speculators hope that housing prices will rise sharply every year so that they can be profitable. Since the second half of last year, housing prices in many cities in China have stopped rising, and some have even declined. According to real estate experts, for real estate speculators, once the housing price increase is lower than 9%, there will be no room for profit.
Another is that housing prices in various places have continued to fall, and real estate speculators are no longer optimistic about the future market and are eager to cash out as soon as possible. According to the February data of 6html, the situation of new and second-hand housing in 70html is in 2 key cities. There are 48 cities with new housing prices falling year-on-year, and there are only 22 cities with year-on-year rises. There are 2 51html that saw the price of second-hand houses fall year-on-year, and only 12html that saw the price of second-hand houses fall year-on-year.
Judging from the current situation, this round of "selling wave" in the real estate market in the first half of the year will continue in the second half of the year, and there is no sign of ending. Some insiders predict that due to the major reasons of 3, there may be a "selling wave" in the real estate market in the second half of this year, which will exceed imagination.
First, the effect of real estate regulation policies has been shown, and the trend of real estate market adjustment is difficult to change. my country began to regulate real estate as early as 2016, and has always emphasized the concept of "housing for living, not for speculation". By 2021, the real estate regulation policies in various parts of China have reached 651 times.
At the same time, Central Bank also sets three red lines for developers' financing, which means that developers' financing channels are blocked. Judging from the current situation, the effect of real estate regulation policies has begun to appear slowly, and once the real estate market adjustment trend is formed, it is difficult to reverse it.
Second, the situation of "oversupply" in the domestic real estate market will continue to exist for a long time. According to data, in my country, 96% of the families with own a property, and families with 2 or more have reached 41.5% of the families with 41.5% of the families with . In addition, the aging society in China is becoming more and more serious, and the demand for domestic housing purchases is becoming less and less.
At the same time, Southwest Finance University was in 2017. Data showed that there were 20,000 vacant houses in my country. After 5 years, including the incremental commercial housing, resettlement housing, affordable housing, etc. entering the market, there are at least 200 million vacant houses in China. Under this circumstance, it is a major trend to gradually adjust housing prices in the future. Therefore, it will be inevitable that the real estate market will have a "selling wave" in the second half of the year.
3, real estate tax is about to be implemented. Last year, 10html In February, China's senior management had already made it clear that the real estate tax would expand the scope of the pilot. It is expected that more and more cities will join the pilot project of property tax in the future. Some experts have predicted that property tax will be spread nationwide during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.
As the property tax progresses gradually, the housing holding costs of speculators will be greatly increased in the real estate holding process. Therefore, for real estate speculators, instead of facing the difficulty of being able to cash out houses in the future, it is better to sell the houses as soon as possible before the property tax is fully imposed.
In the first half of this year, a new round of "selling wave" in the domestic real estate market , and a large number of second-hand housing sources suddenly emerged in many cities. According to industry insiders, there may be a more violent "selling wave" in the second half of this year, which may exceed everyone's imagination. There are three main reasons:
① The adjustment of the real estate market has become a trend. If you monetize the house as soon as possible, you can put it into the pocket as soon as possible. ② The domestic real estate market has experienced a serious "oversupply" situation, and there is no hope of rising housing prices, so real estate speculators can only choose to sell their properties; ③ Property tax is getting closer and closer to us, and real estate tax will be imposed in more than two years in the future. Therefore, selling off excess real estate has become a consensus among real estate speculators.
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