Recently, 13 predictions about real estate in 2016 became popular because he divided the future development trend of my country's real estate into 13 steps five years ago. Now it seems that all of them are said by him, especially the 8th and 9th of them. It seems that what we are experiencing now. Interested friends must see the end and see if you can understand the future real estate trends.
This post published in a forum in 2016 summarizes my country's real estate market into 13 must-pass paths. So far, 7 of them have been implemented, and they have developed strictly in the order they set up, which is amazing.
The seven items are:
First, open the gate to release water, reduce the down payment ratio, and lower the mortgage threshold . In the past many years, many regions have not hesitated to introduce many regulatory policies to increase people's enthusiasm for buying houses, such as lowering the down payment threshold, reducing the deed tax, etc.;
Second, housing prices have begun to soar , which everyone has experienced, especially in recent years, which has reached a nearly crazy increase;
Third, selling land to solve the local government debt crisis , which is what we often call " Land Finance ”;
Fourth is to drive away deposits into the housing market. means that for a house, everyone has to empty several wallets, and continue to pay off their mortgages every month in the future, turning all the cash into real estate;
Fifth is to stop overseas mergers and acquisitions and save foreign exchange ;
Sixth is to follow US imperial tighten currency , which means that the mortgage interest rate we are seeing continues to increase;
7 is to transfer most of the risks through CDS , which has little to do with us ordinary people, so let’s not worry about it for the time being. Looking back now, all seven items above
seem to have been implemented without exception. Some people have said that these problems have actually been known for a long time. It was already very late when it was proposed in 2016, and some have been implemented for many years. Since what has been gone, we will no longer understand. Next, let’s learn more about what will happen in the future.
Article 8: Real estate purchase restrictions are manufacturing ceiling, housing prices have begun to fall . This has begun to appear in third- and fourth-tier cities and below, especially in areas with underdeveloped economies and net outflow of population. It is an indisputable fact that housing prices have fallen.
Article 9: Taking over at a high level or investors cannot cash out . Under the current national policy of implementing the "housing for living, not for speculation", mortgage loans have been tightened and housing prices have fallen. Many real estate speculators do have signs of being trapped. This is exactly what we are experiencing now. From this point of view, this is still relatively accurate.
Then comes the prediction of the future.
Article 10 Land fiscal transformation , this has shown signs from recent policies. Over the years, relying on land transfer has made governments at all levels rich in income. These are the fundamental reasons why housing price adjustments across the country have only seen slogans but not actions. In the future, with the introduction of policies such as renting and selling equal rights, property taxes, and the current state vigorously develops the real economy and revitalizes manufacturing, which is actually paving the way for local governments to transform from land finance.
Article 11 is the property tax we mentioned just now. Property tax has been mentioned more than once. Many places have begun pilot implementation and are expected to be implemented on a large scale in the future. So let’s wait and see what kind of method and model to collect it!
Article 12 drives away the remaining funds and re-enter the industrial . This is complementary to the tenth land fiscal transformation. Only by revitalizing the real economy can local governments let go of their dependence on land finance, and are also the basic guarantee for promoting a virtuous social cycle and ensuring employment. Therefore, in recent years, from the flow of credit funds from banks, it can be clearly felt that the country has given great support to small and micro enterprises, advanced manufacturing, new technology industries and other fields.Article 13 and the last one is the internationalization of RMB , not to mention this. The hegemony of the US dollar has made the whole world extremely angry. If China wants to get rid of this constraint, it must make the RMB stronger. Seeing this, everyone may understand that our country has vigorously carried out the Belt and Road Initiative, the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank , and the digital RMB that has been fully promoted recently, are all paving the way for the future internationalization of the RMB.
Summary, this "forecast" from 2016 is still relatively accurate in looking back. It can also be said to be a review of major events in the real estate market over the years. Many predictions for the future are implemented one by one without exception. Some have ended, and although some policies are still being formulated, the possibility of implementation in the future is already very high.
In short, in the future, under the background of "housing for living, not for speculation", the regulation of the real estate market will continue to be carried out. In which direction will the future housing price trend develop? Should it continue to rise rapidly or housing prices be like onions? There will still be multiple models, such as the leasing model, the government cheap supply model, or the mixed development of multiple models, all of which may be possible.
The people's demand and desire for housing are actually very simple. As long as you can enjoy the most basic living security within your own ability and you can enjoy the most basic living security without any pressure, it is enough. I hope that in the future we will no longer worry about the house, and I hope that we will no longer be busy and busy for a house in the future.
So what is the ideal state of obtaining housing in your mind?
You can use your imagination and post your ideas to the comment section. You must have ideals. What if they are realized?
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