Nanjing's real estate market has always been relatively strong, and every node of the real estate market surge in 2004, 2009, 2013 and 2016 was hit. Prices in first-tier cities rise, Nanjing rises; prices in third- and fourth-tier cities rise, Nanjing rises.
Nanjing housing prices danced with the national real estate market, and forced the housing prices in first- and second-tier cities to a level of 30,000 yuan per square meter. Nanjing people have poor incomes and rely on housing prices to obtain qualifications to compete for new first-tier cities.
Recently, houses in Nanjing seem to be unable to sell. The new house in Xinbaohong Community in Qilin Science and Technology Innovation Park in Chengdong has offered a "80% off house". Some people have calculated that buying a new house at a 80% discount can save 500,000 to 600,000 yuan.
"If I hadn't had money, I would have bought it now." An intermediary engaged in second-hand housing transactions said: "If I had lost my money in two years, I would earn at least 1 million."
Nanjing is known as the "Four Little Dragons of China's real estate market" (Nanjing, Suzhou , Hefei, Xiamen ). Houses are symbols of wealth. I have hardly heard of any real estate projects selling 20% off. What's wrong with this dragon?
"20% off houses" are already the bottom line of developers
Last year, the second phase of Suning Ruicheng in the Hexi section of Nanjing was launched. The bank needs to issue a 5 million asset certificate to be qualified to view houses.
On the first day of the opening, there was drizzling drizzle in the sky, and people rushing to grab houses lined up. The author once wondered if it was , Suning, , that caused the illusion of a booming property market. Otherwise, how could there be so many millionaires in Nanjing?
A bank staff member said that their bank has indeed received many customers who issued asset certificates recently. It seems that Nanjing people are still rich, and under the background of "housing for living, not for speculation", they still maintain confidence in real estate value appreciation.
But why did the "20% off house" appear in the east section of the city after less than a year?
It is true that the Chengdong sector is not as attractive as the Hexi sector, but it does not directly give a 20% discount. Ordinary home buyers may not have any perception of the "20% off house" and do not know what the 20% off house means to the real estate market? For developers, 20% off is close to the bottom line of price reduction.
5 Wanda Wang Jianlin talked about the profit of developers: "Half of the housing prices are land transfer fees, which are given to the government. The other half is the developer, among which the developer also has to pay construction costs and management costs. If the one that can be put into his own pocket, the gross profit is 20%-25% good."
If Wang Jianlin's words are true, Xinbaohong will almost make money by selling "20% off houses", and the gross profit is only 0%-5%.
This year, in order to reduce inventory and quickly recover health, Evergrande has launched "80% off room" and "30% off room" activities in many places. The intensity of Dalian Evergrande sales staff has become the idea of buying a house:
"Buy a house worth 1 million yuan, buy it for 700,000 yuan, and sell it for 900,000 yuan next year, and you can also make a net profit of 200,000 yuan." For Evergrande employees, grabbing a "30% off room" means making a profit.
As a result, Evergrande's "30% off room" action attracted the attention of local regulatory authorities. Owners in other nearby communities complained that Evergrande disrupted the market. Evergrande received a notice from the regulatory authorities: sales shall not be lower than 80% of the registered price. The cases of
Wanda and Evergrande tell us: "20% off houses" are already the bottom line of developers, and even the lower ones is "cutting their losses". Xin Baohong's creation of a "20% off house" means they are anxious and afraid that the property will be unsalable.
The real regulation of Nanjing's real estate market
I remember from 2005 to 2010, after two or three rounds of surge in China's real estate market, the country introduced a series of regulatory policies, most of which were limited in effect. Some people online joked: "The more housing prices are regulated, the higher the regulation."
In fact, the high housing prices at that time were closely related to the large influx of US dollars into the country. After joining the WTO, China's foreign trade demand has increased sharply, exports have increased year by year, and a large influx of US dollar foreign exchange - China's economy has never been so brilliant.
The problem is that the US dollar cannot be used directly from China. , the central bank will hedge against and issue additional RMB, resulting in an increase in currencies entering the market. The huge liquidity is uncontrollably rushing into real estate, and with the acceleration of urbanization, there is a problem that housing prices do not rise.
Most of the reasons for the surge in China's real estate market are external, and internal adjustments are difficult to achieve results.
People who don’t believe it can look at South Korea. From last year to this year, housing prices in Seoul, South Korea have soared by 70%. Moon Jae-in has introduced more than 20 regulatory measures in succession. Has it stopped Seoul’s housing prices? No.
Because the US dollar issued by the United States has rushed into the South Korean real estate market, seeking high returns, Moon Jae-in can't control Americans no matter how much regulation is made.
Nowadays, the era of high growth in China's foreign trade is over and external pressure is reduced. With the remaining internal problems, if internal problems are regulated, housing prices will naturally be curbed.
Since 2018, Nanjing has actively regulated housing prices and reduced the demand for commercial housing by increasing the supply of affordable housing.
Nanjing stated that it is willing to reduce the supply of commercial housing and increase the construction of affordable housing. To this end, it is necessary to reduce the annual land finance of more than 20 billion yuan and plan to formulate a property tax collection method for Nanjing. It is understood that the land transfer fee for affordable housing is only 12.5%-17% of that of commercial housing.
This is an important transformation. In the past, Nanjing relied on land finance, but in the future, it relied on property tax.
Property tax means that those who hoard multiple houses will face more spending on vacant houses, increasing the cost of real estate speculators. The government can also add new sources of wealth and gradually get rid of its dependence on land finance.
For example, if a family of three owns two houses, each with 90 square meters, one house is to live in and invest in one house. There are 30 square meters of housing per person per person, and one house with a 90 square meters does not have to pay taxes, and the other house with a 90 square meters is subject to taxes.
If the house price is 30,000 yuan per square meter, a house with a price of 2.7 million yuan may have to pay a property tax of 1%-3% every year, that is, 27,000 yuan to 81,000 yuan. For ordinary middle-class people, the cost of speculation in housing will increase greatly.
Nowadays, Shanghai and Chongqing have piloted property tax collection, and Nanjing will not be far away.
Xinbaohong's parent company urgently sells 40 projects
"20% off houses", the developer of Xinbaohong, which was invested by three real estate companies: Xincheng Holdings , Poly Real Estate , and Hongyang Group , with a shareholding ratio of 34%, 33%, and 33%. It was established in 2016. Its registered place is Nanjing, Jiangsu, and mainly operates the Nanjing real estate market.
The major shareholder Xincheng Holdings sold more than 200 billion real estate in 2018, and there were 299 projects under construction, with a total investment of 460 billion, ranking eighth among Chinese real estate companies.
Unfortunately, in 2019, Xincheng Holdings exposed the scandal of the chairman molesting a young girl, which caused the company's stock price to plummet. In order to recover funds, Xincheng Holdings sold 40 real estate projects to avoid a plummeting stock price.
At the same time, the country's regulation of real estate is becoming increasingly tightened, with the number of regulation reached 620 times throughout the year. Xincheng Holdings also faces the dual pressure of the company itself and external regulation.
In 2020, Xincheng Holdings' real estate sales fell 7.3%, falling out of the top ten real estate properties, ranking twelve. This is the first time that Xincheng Holdings' sales have fallen since 2015.
, Xincheng Holdings' sales target in 2021 is only 260 billion yuan, only 10 billion yuan higher than last year, which shows its growth pressure. Although Xincheng Holdings has passed the most dangerous period, the company is still facing huge pressure to recover funds.
Today's real estate companies have a bit of a "battle royale" flavor. Under the pressure of the "three red lines", every company that crosses the line has pressure to turn green, but market demand will not be created out of thin air in the short term. In other words, market demand is a fixed value in the short term, and each company needs to increase its own sales in order to turn green.
"all-red real estate companies" such as Evergrande, R&F have lowered prices and promoted promotions to compete for market share. Whoever runs slowly will be in trouble.
"20% off houses" cannot represent the overall picture of Nanjing's real estate market, but it is more like a signal. Xin Baohong has begun to worry about selling houses, fearing that he will fall behind in the "battle royale" game and become a takeover. This game is destined to have a group of losers. Obviously, Xincheng Holdings is taking the lead.
Author: Jiang Zuo Youan
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