01. Preface
Many people say that the number of real estate agents who resign is now more because the current property market is in a downturn, so there are more talents who resign.
In fact, there are more people resigning from real estate agencies, and the core is that there are too many people in real estate agencies.
In the impression of crayfish, the real estate agency industry has been very saturated since 2015, and there are no need for so many real estate agencies in the country.
Because the threshold for real estate agency industry is relatively low, everyone can do it. In addition, as long as the real estate market peak season is encountered, any real estate agency can make money, so the already saturated real estate agency has become more and more people.
Real estate agency should be considered a very introverted profession, and more real estate agencies will resign in the future.
industry does not require so many real estate agents. Most real estate agents who can survive are those who can have two tricks.
In fact, since 2015, the problem in the real estate market has become that there are not enough buyers.
Nowadays, land in many cities has failed to be sold. Many real estate speculators say that this will reduce the supply of new houses in the future, especially in two or three years, the supply of new houses will decrease, and housing prices will rise sharply by then.
In fact, if there is no artificially creating urgent needs, the number of people buying a house will be significantly reduced in two or three years. The supply of new houses in
has decreased, but new affordable rental houses in various places have increased. Two or three years later, these affordable houses in will be launched in large quantities.
If house prices do not fall and wages do not rise, how can there be so many urgent needs?
As for those who can get in the car, if they see that housing prices do not rise, they will not have such a strong mentality of buying a house.
And when they move into affordable rental housing, they enjoy the same treatment as living in a new housing. Without the pressure from the landlord, it will be very difficult for them to take their family to pay their debts to buy a house. In the future, the population will be smaller and smaller, and there will be no need for so many houses. It would be great to be able to sell the current house.
tells a fact. Just go to the suburban ring line of first- and second-tier cities to see how many houses are being built, and there are densely packed vacant high-rise residential buildings.
02. In just over three months, second-hand houses in Wuke are like a roller coaster
Many landlords do not realize that they are trying every means to lock in the liquidity of second-hand houses.
Because only second-hand houses have no liquidity, then housing prices can be stable. If you say that house prices have fallen, then at least the transaction price of houses sold will fall, and the house will fall; but now that second-hand houses cannot be sold, the house prices will not fall significantly.
There are very few landlords who are willing to sell houses at a lower price, but compared with those landlords who sell houses at a lower price, there are only a small part of them who do not lower prices or are not aware of this problem at all.
Simply put, this small number of landlords who sell houses to cash out cannot affect the real estate market at all.
is like the one-sided real estate agency method developed in Shenzhen. Another important role is to make selling a house more difficult.
Think about this, it will become popular all over the country. You can only find one real estate agent to sell a house. Before this is sold, you cannot find a second one. This will make the speed of selling a house very slow, unless the price reduction is very high, otherwise it will be very slow.
Most second-hand landlords will not see their house price drop, they will worry about being killed in it; when they use money to sell their house one day, they will know how much the house price has dropped and they can only sell it.
Take Hangzhou's real estate market as an example. In just over three months, second-hand houses in Wuke are as exciting as roller coasters.
The regulatory impact of the real estate market is of course the first factor.
In the first half of the year, second-hand housing prices in Wuke rose rapidly, due to the new policy in September last year - Future Science and Technology City was designated as a "hot spot zone". Some houses completely lost their qualifications to swing new houses, resulting in a "super short squeeze" in second-hand housing.
is also trapped in a "short-term freezing" due to the new policy, the second-hand market is at its peak.
Since the "85 New Policy", the property has not obtained a new certificate and is no longer covered by the tight curse of "hot spots". Some house owners have moved from the second-hand market to the lottery for new houses.
However, Future Science and Technology City does not lack buyers, nor does it lack talented buyers. , their needs, accompanied by the influence of policies, switch back and forth between new and second-hand rooms.
In recent months, from Sky City, R&F Center, Pu Heyun Mansion, to the current Tingyun Shangfu and Times Tianjing, the winning rate of new houses has not increased with the cooling of the second-hand market.
is just the opposite, as always, it is very stable in competing for social security and even restricting sales.
plus popular properties such as Hujing Yunlu and Hangzhou Yard have been delivered one after another. Regardless of whether the second-hand housing prices of can rise, the market has become more popular and more popular, which will also help the regional second-hand housing transactions .
After all, Future Science and Technology City is still the area with the most concentrated high-paying people in Hangzhou. Even if there is a bubble and the foundation of purchasing power is there, the "battle royale" will not be staged.
Finally, let’s talk about why the third centralized land supply in Hangzhou is perfectly implemented to live in a house rather than speculation?
First of all, let’s review again. The “housing for living, not speculation” that crayfish has always emphasized is not whether to live in or buy a house, nor does it mean that housing will fall.
houses are not for speculation, in order to squeeze the profit margin of real estate speculators for buying and selling, and make real estate speculators unprofitable.
can’t make much money by buying and selling, so naturally no one will go to speculate.
So, the price limit for first-hand houses is far lower than the price of second-hand houses, which is the driving force that has inspired most people to desperately draw first-hand houses. Everyone hopes that a house with an inverted price difference can make a vote.
In the market where the second-hand market is sluggish and second-hand housing prices are constantly lowering, raises the first-hand price limit, which is equivalent to narrowing the inverted price difference between the first-hand and second-hand prices, which has been narrowed, once again.
After the profit margin of first- and second-hand inverted reversal was further compressed and reduced, accelerated the departure of real estate speculators.
1. The reduction in the starting price of land and the increase in the price limit of new houses have all left more profit space for developers. Only when is profitable can developers improve the quality of the property. allows home buyers who are truly willing to live in a higher quality house.
2. The reduction of land price upper limit will prevent the market from showing up again. From then on, market sentiment will be more stable, and the public's expected threshold for future housing prices will be lowered accordingly. This is another way to dispel the idea of making profits by speculating in real estate.
3. With the smooth implementation of the third batch of centralized land supply, the annual supply of Hangzhou's real estate market will be guaranteed tomorrow and the public's psychological expectation that the future supply shortage and may raise prices will be eliminated.
In summary, it can not only sell the land, but also control future expectations, but also improve the requirements for the quality of the property. So Crayfish said that the price limit for new houses has been raised. Let’s analyze it in depth: it is precisely the housing that lives in and not speculate.
03. Solution to the real estate bubble
. Other prices have risen, but the house prices have fallen backward, which is completely "insulated" from inflation , which means that the real estate market has lost its universal appreciation awareness.
House prices are essentially a game that passes the flowers on . Only when everyone has the expectations of recognizing its rising potential will there be a calmness that others once bought 5,000 yuan but I have to spend 10,000 yuan.
But now, the stable appreciation system has been broken, and the last wave of buying naturally becomes the buyer.
Therefore, the one who most desires that housing prices continue to rise is those who have bought houses, while those who have not bought it hopes that it will rise after buying.
As long as the house price stagnates , it will not be far from selling, and it is very similar to the current market.
Now you can see that whether real estate is moving forward or retreating, real estate will need to land hard on , and it will be cool.
The solution to the real estate bubble is to freeze the real estate market, and housing prices will not rise or fall, just so horizontal.
When the landlords of second-hand houses feel that housing prices are about to fall and the market is collectively pessimistic, they use policies to raise them, and then when the market gets hot, they use policies to suppress them, and just walk in a tightrope-like regulation.
The way we solve the real estate bubble now is like dismantling a bomb, cutting the explosion line, and without cutting the last line, any thread will be cool when it is cut off in the process.
So now when various places introduce real estate market regulation policies, they are very cautious. cannot puncture, nor can it continue to expand.
On the other hand, there have been various recent news that mortgage loans are going to be relaxed, and then the inertial conclusion is that houses are about to recover and increase prices.
This has become an instinctive underlying thinking, but it tells us a basic fact: plus leveraged loan is the basic driving force for our housing prices to rise.
20 years ago, when Wenzhou people gathered to speculate in real estate, they all collected cash and negotiated a good price with the real estate agency and waited for the house price to rise and sold;
Ten years ago, they closed their eyes and added leverage to borrow money to get housing tickets, and as long as they occupy a position, they can make money.
Some so-called economists say: "If you are hard to buy a house, then you just borrow money to buy it."
If you can make money by simply occupying a position, then the money in this world is too easy to make; just like in a company, different positions have different requirements and treatment, but if anyone takes up a good position, can he rest assured?
The final position is not a good deal. Responsibility, power and interests are trinity. If a company can make people's distribution of interests fixed by people, then the company will not be far from collapse.
People who want to make money will suffer in the end, and I don’t want me to lose, but we must recognize the reality clearly.
In the future, it will affect everyone's determination to buy a house. The purchase payment before buying a house is part of it. How to support this house after you buy a house may be more stressful than the purchase payment.
Just like everyone buying a car, many people are not that they can’t afford luxury cars, but because after buying a luxury car, the various maintenance costs of luxury cars are far more than ordinary cars.
So many people who have money to buy luxury cars do not buy luxury cars, but buy ordinary family cars because they can afford it, but cannot afford it.
houses are likely to be like this in the future. If you want to buy a high-quality house, you will face two large expenses, one exceeds the real estate tax of ordinary houses;
also exceeds the maintenance costs of ordinary houses, these two expenses will be the biggest difficulty for everyone to buy a house.
is like why young people abroad don’t buy a house? It’s not that they can’t afford to buy a house, but that they have done the calculations and buying a house is not as good as renting a house, so they don’t buy a house.
and why we often see those rich people abroad who used to be, but their families later declined and could not afford to support luxury houses. They had to sell large villas for $100, but they could not afford such houses.
04. Summary of the so-called price increase and inventory reduction of
. When the price rises to the end, it will be internal volume .
It’s like the housing prices have obviously increased by 2 or 3 times compared with 2015. Even in 2020, housing prices across the country have also risen a lot, but real estate companies all say they have no money and are losing money.
The furniture industry has basically increased this year, which is obviously more expensive than last year, but furniture manufacturers have come out and said that they have not made any money and are still losing money.
The person who sells things clearly raised the price, but he ran out and said he was not making money. There is a necessary prerequisite for the method of increasing the price and destocking of
, which is that consumers' income must increase. If consumers' income does not increase, increasing the price and destocking of stocking is equivalent to killing the chicken to get eggs. After the deposit of
is consumed, there is nothing left.
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