1. Today's copper price
LME copper price: US$7552/ton, up 2 US$2/ton
LME aluminum price: US$2305/ton, up 0 US$2/ton
2. This week's Yangtze spot copper price trend and analysis
8 copper price trend chart
0 In the week of September 2, the domestic spot copper price overall showed a continuous downward trend. The average domestic spot copper price was 62,532 yuan/ton, with an average daily decline of 788 yuan/ton; the average price in the previous week was 63,820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,288 yuan/ton compared with last week, a decrease of 2.02% month-on-month. Macro: Given the continued sluggish global economy recently, the market conditions of various non-ferrous metal markets are poor, metal prices are falling, the US dollar continues to raise interest rates in , global interest rates are rising, international market sentiment is weak, and consumption is frequently sluggish.
As a major metal consumer country, China can see from the manufacturing data that my country's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) declined in August, lower than expected. In addition, domestic commercial housing sales performed poorly in the first half of the year, due to the impact of the epidemic and the inability of suppliers to hand over the building, it had a great impact on consumers' confidence in buying a house. In terms of supply: The bottlenecks of overseas supply chains still exist, mine output is unstable, and output will have a certain impact on the domestic power limit policy and damage metal output, and the supply of goods is relatively insufficient. In terms of demand, global demand is still weak. The interest rate hikes in major European and American economies have a great impact on the world. The industry is afraid of highs, and copper prices continue to fall this week.
3. Domestic and foreign financial hotspots
Domestic aspects:
1. [Policy development financial instruments have been invested 300 billion yuan] After the State Council Executive Meeting first proposed "Measures to determine policy-based and development financial instruments to support the construction of major projects" on June 29, within 2 months, through the National Development Bank's China Infrastructure Investment Fund established by the China Development Bank and the Agricultural Development Bank of China's infrastructure infrastructure fund established by the Agricultural Development Bank of China, 300 billion yuan has been invested.
2. [The total profit of state-owned enterprises from January to July was 2675.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%] From January to July 2022, the total operating income of state-owned enterprises was 45779.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%. Among them, central enterprises had 25746.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%; local state-owned enterprises had 20033.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%.
International:
1. [Germany inflation hits a new high in August, and the probability of the ECB raising interest rates by 75 basis points has increased significantly] The German Federal Statistics Bureau released inflation data on Tuesday. After the readings in June and July fell, the inflation level in August hit a new high, becoming the highest record since the winter of 1973/1974. Data shows that Germany's inflation rate rose to 7.9% in August due to high energy prices, and compared with other EU countries (HICP) inflation data, the August inflation level increased by 8.8% year-on-year. The previous high came in May, when the figure was 8.7%. The Bureau of Statistics also said that Germany's energy prices rose 35.6% year-on-year in August and food prices rose 16.6%.
2. [Federal Chairman Powell said he would still raise interest rates sharply and "strongly" fight inflation] On August 26, local time, Fed Chairman Powell delivered a speech at the Jackson Hall Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, saying that the United States will continue to take measures to "strongly" fight inflation, but at the same time warned that strong interest rate hike measures will bring "pain" to American families and businesses. Powell's speech shows that the Fed may still raise interest rates sharply in the coming months, which may disappoint investors, who had hoped the Fed would ease interest rate hikes later this year.
4. Copper market weekly news
1. [Codelco's copper production will further decline in 2023 - Report] Codelco lowered its 2022 copper production forecast to about 1.5 million tons last week due to the low recovery rate of some mines and ore grades in its Chuquicamata mine. The company had previously expected to produce 1.61 million tons of copper this year.
2. [The demand for exchange rate increased at the end of the month, but the copper price is still weak for the time being] Overall, the US dollar is currently maintaining a strong trend, the fundamental changes of copper varieties are limited, spot transactions are not very active, but the overall inventory level is relatively low, so various factors are intertwined, and the operation is temporarily treated with a neutral attitude.
3. [More than 20% of global copper mines are mined from sustainable mines] According to August 30, Copper Mark said on Tuesday that more than 20% of global copper mine production is from sustainable mines. The copper industry created Copper Mark in 2020, a voluntary framework designed to promote responsible production practices and demonstrate commitment to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.
5. Copper price future market outlook
This week's copper price trend has fallen for five consecutive times! The market trend is quite weak, the macro atmosphere is getting worse, non-ferrous metals are under collective pressure, and the information on the Federal Reserve and Europe's interest rate hikes is clear. The strengthening of the US dollar has hit industrial metals, and the outbreak of epidemics in many domestic cities has aggravated market concerns. Metal demand is likely to be affected by related impacts, while supply and demand are very limited in the face of copper prices. If the epidemic continues to ferment, consumption may be hit hard. However, the uncertainty of the epidemic is very high, coupled with the continued support of domestic stability policies and the investment in state grid 4 State Grid beyond expectations, infrastructure acceleration and good development of new energy will all become strong support points to support copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will continue to fluctuate widely next week, so invest cautiously.
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