Fine The Ministry of Commerce International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute Researcher
Ear September, international organizations have successively issued warnings on global economic risks. Not only are the growth expectations of developed economies such as the United States and Europe lowered, but greater systemic risks may follow. World Bank warns of the global economic recession next year, and OECD (OECD ) also said that the global economy is at risk of an unexpected decline. For a moment, "a storm is coming and the wind is filling the building", and many unfavorable factors such as the new crown pneumonia epidemic, energy shortage, high inflation and rising labor costs are superimposed on each other. Unstable economic expectations may lead to more negative impacts through self-reinforcement.
In fact, this is not the first pessimistic prediction of economic development by all parties since this year. Faced with difficulties, waiting for conditions to improve and economic recovery may take a long cycle, and the price required is unacceptable. Social groups with low income and insufficient savings may suffer a serious blow. What is more serious is that the economic downturn is unlikely to be limited to a certain country or a certain region in the current globalization stage. The extensive interconnection between countries will rapidly amplify the economic downturn risks and make it more difficult to control risks.
U.S. inflation is high. The continuous, rapid and significant rate hike is probably not the best choice that the Federal Reserve can make. In addition to the side effects of US trade protectionism , the current high inflation is also an important booster and amplifier based on misjudgment and slow action based on overly optimistic about the situation. Conversely, when the Fed truly realizes the need for action, it does not act in a responsible manner with the international monetary authorities, but instead takes unilateral action based on its own judgment on its own environment. Once again, while failing to resolve its own problems, it pushes other countries into a fire pit and knocks off a cliff.
Faced with the possible global economic crisis, all parties need global participation and collective action. The community with a shared future for mankind reflects such a mutual influence and dependence between civilizations, countries, cultures, and people. It is precisely because all parties have common interests that they can form common action. After being elevated to the Leaders' Summit, the G20 (G20) effectively prevented the economic decline after the global economic crisis in 2008 through coordinated actions by major economies in the world. What it turned out to be depends not only on the large amount of fiscal resources invested by countries, but also on the improvement of social expectations and confidence in future development. The concerns of the World Bank and OECD about the global economy also require policies and actions that combine virtual and real. It is necessary to improve the efficiency of utilizing limited resources through clear and accurate signaling, create conditions for the market's positive response, and thus enhance the market's ability to withstand negative impacts and stimulate the vitality of market entities.
So, how can we find a feasible path to avoid a sharp decline in the global economy in the midst of the chaotic global changes? This may not be effective, and it is difficult to achieve quickly. The wheel of history rolls forward, and changes in speed and direction require not only increasing the intensity of the effect, but also grasping the point and timing, in order to achieve the effect of "a little effort to achieve a thousand pounds". From cooperation between countries to the recovery of an industry or a certain segment of the market, we need to grasp the key points.
In fact, compared with before the epidemic, the total global commodity supply has increased, and market demand has not increased significantly. According to reason, there should not be a widespread and continuous supply shortage. The continued rise in prices of commodities such as energy, agricultural products, industrial manufactured products and consumer goods is largely due to concerns about unstable supply guarantees, which in turn stimulates the willingness of market entities to inventory. The key to solving this problem is to form a strong supply chain, while global market optimization is the largest platform and feasible way out for making full use of resources, which is inseparable from mutual trust and coordinated actions among countries.
As the world's largest country in goods trade, China plays an important role in ensuring the stable development of the global supply chain.However, due to various concepts and factors, trade with China, which was originally based on reciprocity relations, has been misinterpreted by some countries, thus limiting the supply of factors made in China and actively limiting the import of goods from China, which not only limits China's production and service capabilities, but also puts consumers in these countries in a more embarrassing situation. The lack of market competition further pushed up inflation.
The cold winter is coming, and European countries may be particularly cold this winter. Countries around the world need to join forces to keep warm, maintain and even enhance their ability to resist the economic crisis by leveraging their respective comparative advantages. We must actively reduce intervention and restrictions on the market, create better and diversified support for the stability of the global supply chain, form a virtuous cycle of market expectations improvement, and truly avoid or shorten the harm caused to countries by creating incremental growth. (Editor in charge: An Ran Hua Zhang Yuxin)
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