text｜Qiu Liben
United Nations General Assembly has become a place of discussion on the Taiwan issue. US President Biden mentioned Taiwan in his speech at UN General Assembly , which is the first time in the history of the US president's speech at UN United Nations ; he reiterated the "one China" policy, not seeking confrontation with Beijing or the Cold War , and continue to resolve conflicts in a peaceful way. This is different from his argument that he would send troops to protect the station in the "Sixty Minutes" interview with CBS TV. It seems that his Taiwan Strait policy has changed direction again.
This is the dialectical development of the US Taiwan Strait. It insists on one China on the surface, but in fact it has changed its interpretation and developed towards the direction of "one China and one Taiwan". The "Taiwan Policy Law" that Congress will soon pass, military aid Taiwan, strengthen Taiwan's defense capabilities, and even promote "asymmetric combat power" militarily, extending the battlefield to the streets. This is the beginning of Taiwan’s “Ukrainization”.
But Biden's UN General Assembly speech lowered the tone of Taiwan's policy law, emphasizing that one-China principle actually presents a clearer strategic ambiguity; on the other hand, it is a vague strategic ambiguity. This is American sermon, which is on the surface to maintain the status quo, but in fact it changes the status quo and avoids an immediate showdown.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi also delivered a speech at the UN General Assembly, pointing out that Taiwan independence is a "gray rhino" and should be avoided with all our efforts. China is willing to continue to strive for peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and efforts, and to eliminate interference from external forces with the greatest measures. He emphasized that only by stopping separatism in accordance with the law can the peaceful reunification of the cross-strait have a foundation for realization; only when the country achieves complete reunification can the Taiwan Strait truly usher in lasting peace.
Regarding the recent tense situation in the Taiwan Strait, Wang Yi's speech seemed to be a reassurance. It can be seen that Beijing has not given up its hope of peaceful reunification and hopes to resolve Taiwan's problem by non-military means. Although radical remarks on the Chinese Internet advocate military reunification, the official positions are actually very restrained and there is no need to promote military reunification with great fanfare. Wang Yi's speech was also interpreted by Taiwan as saying that as long as Taiwan does not declare Taiwan independence, peace in the Taiwan Strait can continue.
This is also Beijing's strategic determination. It is not confused by the US "sausage-cutting" argument, but looks at the problem with a dialectical attitude, adhere to the priority of peaceful reunification, and putting greater pressure on avoiding the emergence of Taiwan independence. Because Beijing decision makers discovered that between peace and war, time is a friend of Beijing. As long as mainland China adheres to the current path of reform and construction, and its national strength is on par with the United States and its people's quality of life is not inferior to Taiwan, then peaceful reunification can be achieved naturally.
Washington 's strategists believe that time is the enemy of the United States. As long as the current economic structure continues to develop, the United States' national strength and military strength will gradually be compared by China. In the dispute over the Taiwan Strait, the United States will lose less and less bargaining chips. Therefore, some American think tanks even believe that the battle between China and the United States will be better than fighting late. Ukraining the Taiwan issue is equivalent to "Russification" China, consuming China's national strength, and putting the southeastern half of China's land into war again, which can curb China's rise.
In fact, there has been a recent discussion in the Western international relations community that China has risen to its "peak" and a "peak China" is taking shape. If the West does not curb it, it will be more difficult to control it in the future.
The West’s discussion of China’s peak revolves around the controversy over whether China’s national strength has reached its peak. Under the shackles of the epidemic, China's economic growth rate will decline this year, and will the strict control of the intellectual community cause China's innovation capabilities to decline? But on the other hand, some experts believe that China's national strength will soar in the next decade. Judging from the number of international patent registrations and papers published, China is already ahead of the world. Even under the pressure of the epidemic, the development of China's electric vehicles has risen against the trend, relying not only on the huge domestic market, but also exported to Europe and developed countries, forming a new growth momentum.
Therefore, the American hawks are currently obsessed with the anti-China ideology , and are deeply afraid that China's peak has not reached its highest peak and will soar in the future. Therefore, the United States has begun to take strict measures against China in chips, high-tech, and financial value chains, in an effort to curb China in all aspects and prevent China's peak from eventually exceeding the US's peak.
This also explains why the United States and Western countries are now trying every means to "stumbling" and decouple from China in different fields. At the US hearing a few days ago, the three major U.S. banks: JPMorgan Chase , Citibank , and Bank of America were asked what the reactions of the three major banks would be if mainland China attacked Taiwan. They all answered unanimously and would impose sanctions on mainland China.
This also creates a warning effect, and China will make advance arrangements for this "pre-promotion" financial sanction. In fact, the United States' long-term financial advantage lies in the hegemony of the US dollar, but now China has spared no effort to promote the internationalization of the RMB. At the Samarkand summit in Central Asia, it has long promoted the implementation of local currency settlement with other countries, got rid of the US dollar framework, and avoided the threat of the United States' weaponization of financial tools.
The Taiwan Strait game between the United States and China has entered a new stage. The original strategic ambiguity has become strategic clear, but in a flash, both sides must avoid an immediate showdown and change to a clear strategic ambiguity. The United States has shown its trump card, changed the interpretation of One China policy, and set conditions for force intervention, while China has strengthened its military deployment and crossed the middle line of the strait. This is the dialectical development of the Taiwan Strait policies of both sides, forming a new tension in China-US diplomacy. Both sides are preparing for each other's decoupling, but they still hold the pipa half-covered because there are too many calculations of economic interests behind them, and in the end, it depends on the results of the future elections between the United States and Taiwan.
Copyright Statement: This article is an original article from the author, and the image information is from the Internet. Illegal reproduction of the text content in this article is strictly prohibited without authorization. If reprinting or citing is required, the author's consent must be obtained and the source is indicated.
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-