ATFX Hong Kong stocks: overnight US bond yield and US dollar index both fell at high levels, US stock and international gold prices took advantage of the trend to rise sharply. Dow Jones rose 1.88%, Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose 2.05% and 1.97%, respectively, and COMEX Gold rose 1.97%. Boosted by optimism, as of 11:50 today, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.14%, with Chinese stocks and gold sectors performing the best.
Chinese stock leader Alibaba rose 4.42%, reaching a high of HK$79.2. Although the Hang Seng Index had fallen below the March low as early as September 22, Alibaba still operated above the March low, with significant resistance to declines. From March to the present, Alibaba's daily stock price has shown an "expansion triangle/flap mouth". As long as the pattern does not fall below the 71 Hong Kong dollar support level, it is possible that the trend of long-lasting growth will occur after the adjustment pattern is over in the future. Of course, this requires the cooperation of fundamentals.
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performance, Alibaba's Q1 financial report for fiscal year 2023 is not ideal. The total revenue was RMB 205.56 billion, down less than 1% compared with RMB 205.74 billion in the same period last year, basically the same as the same period last year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 22.659 billion yuan, down 49.72% from 45.068 billion yuan in the same period last year, close to half. In terms of growth, in 2018, Alibaba's revenue growth rate reached 58.12%, and by 2020, it fell to 35.25%, rebounded slightly in 2021, returned to the decline in 2022, and its revenue growth rate fell below 20%. By the first quarter of this fiscal year, the revenue growth rate directly entered the negative range. Overall, Alibaba Group's revenue has been on the spot, profits have been halved, and growth is insufficient, and its decline is significant. This casts a shadow on the technical bottoming rebound signal, and the bottom may fluctuate longer than expected.
The rise of the gold sector is more like a technical rebound, because the stock price of leading stock Zijin Mining basically resonates with the international gold price. Although gold prices rose sharply overnight, the medium-term trend was still significantly short, and Zijin Mining's trend structure was similar. If today is the starting point of a short-term rebound, Zijin Mining may rise to the range of HK$8~8.5 in the next week, with the corresponding international gold price ranging from US$1,700~1,750.
Radical Rate hikes in Western countries are the main factors leading to this round of major global stock market pullback. Federal , ECB and other Central Bank The main purpose of hikes in interest rates is to curb rising inflation rates. Logically speaking, only when the CPI data in Western countries shows a turning point can the stock market usher in a macro turning point. The growth rate of core CPI in the United States rose from 5.9% to 6.3% in August, and it is obvious that the turning point has not yet appeared.
Analyst team has a brief view: the short-term rebound will not change the medium-term bear trend, there is no clear support level below the Hang Seng Index, so it is advisable to wait and see the outside world.
ATFX risk warning and disclaimer: The market is risky, and investment should be cautious. The above content only represents the view of the analyst and does not constitute any operational suggestions.
This article comes from the financial industry
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