Before the festival, the reason why the stock market was so sluggish was mainly to avoid possible risks during the festival, especially the uncertainty of the peripheral stock markets. Therefore, the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets continued to shrink last week.
At the same time, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have also experienced a wave of continuous shrinking volume and falling. Shanghai Composite Index has also closed a negative line for three consecutive trading days, but the Shanghai Composite Index now has a very obvious feature.
That is, the Shanghai Composite Index has been running along the 5-day moving average for 9 consecutive trading days, and it is not far away from the 5-day moving average, nor has it broken through the 5-day moving average. At this time, the 10-day moving average is also in a downward trend.
month line is almost the same, but there is still a large deviation rate between the monthly line and the index .
It can be said that the problem with the stock market now is that there are certain differences in chips, and the short-term moving average has begun to move downward, and the deviation rate between the patch and the index is not very obvious.
and even the half-year line and annual line are still in a flattening trend. The quarterly line has changed from the previous flattening trend to the current downward trend. However, the downward trend of the quarterly line is not very obvious. In my opinion, the quarterly line has more passive downward trend.
Moreover, the moving averages are now above the index. It can be said that the pressure on the Shanghai Composite Index is too great. Not only that, it can be seen from the chip distribution chart that there is obviously a peak of chips at the 3230 point of the Shanghai Composite Index. What does this mean?
This means that there are many chips at this position, and the index is below this point. Then, the chips above are basically all floating losses. With the decline in the past few days, this chip peak has not fallen much.
Therefore, most of the floating loss chips are in the process of holding stocks, which is very unfavorable for the market operation. There is also such a situation in
including GEM index and Shenzhen Component Index. Among them, the chips of GEM are concentrated at 2600 points, while the chips of the Shenzhen Component Index are basically concentrated at 12100 points. The peaks of these two indexes are not weaker than the Shanghai Component Index.
Therefore, in my opinion, even if the Shanghai Composite Index will counterattack next, it will be just a rebound market.
However, it is worth noting that today, good news is coming again, so is the stock market counterattack imminent? At the same time, what is this good news? What impact will the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have on the next step?
It can be seen that the US stock market has also experienced a wave of sharp rises, with the three major U.S. stock indexes all rising by more than 2%, which is a rare phenomenon recently, which shows that the US stock market has also experienced a wave of bottoming out and rebounding.
This will have a certain boost to the opening of A shares next week. At least, A shares will be linked. Moreover, at this time, European stock markets will also collectively counterattack, and basically most European stock indexes are in an upward market.
is affected by this factor. Today, when of the Asia-Pacific stock market opened , many of them had a jump and rose. When the Tokyo Nikkei 225 index opened, it jumped and rose nearly 2%. At the same time, the South Korean comprehensive index and others began to counterattack.
This is obviously a positive impact on the stock market next week. Therefore, this is good news for A-share market . At the same time, at this time, the Panic Index VIX also began to show a downward trend, and the market risks began to decrease.
More importantly, funds do have a risk aversion before the holiday, but after the holiday, as the stock market opens, this risk aversion will definitely weaken, so the stock market funds will begin to have a return effect.
Moreover, from the historical trend, most of the stock markets are still in a rising trend after the holiday.
Therefore, the sluggish trading volume last week and the desolate trading trading will likely be changed in the next week. However, even if the stock market will be about to counterattack next week, it is only a repair market, not a reversal market.
To sum up, the author believes that there are indeed some technical counterattack signals in the current Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. Of course, since the pressure above is indeed not small, the overall volatile stock market will gradually intensify next week.
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