Hello everyone, I am a professional investor Ye Qiu.
More than half of the National Day has passed, and Ye Qiu is also on vacation.
But now it is a key change in the key node of , it is necessary to sort it out in detail.
Ye Qiu said clearly [This is the bottom of history, the last opportunity to make money this year is here] !
Wait!
finally waited until the bottom to make full efforts!
This period of time has been really difficult. It has fallen for three months. I believe many friends have lost a lot!
Let’s look at the following set of data and count the bottom characteristics of the bear market in recent years.
From the perspective of breaking the net ratio, the entire market position is now even worse than in April 2022 (war and masks), January 2019 (leverage and Mao Yizhan), and March 2020 (the first mask outbreak).
From the data perspective, the market at has obviously fallen too far at this stage.
Currently, the market is not short of liquidity, M2 has repeatedly set new highs, and still lacks confidence and expectations, which is the main contradiction in the market at this stage.
Once confidence and expectations are fixed, there will be a good rebound.
There are two major contradictions in the current market:
Inner contradiction: When will the economy bottom out and rebound and return to the growth track? Forward-looking indicators are real estate and masks.
external contradictions: When will US dollar index peak, rate hike slow down, RMB exchange rate when will RMB exchange rate stabilize?
The first contradiction directly determines the expectation of profit; the second contradiction directly determines the direction and elasticity of valuation.
At this stage, the market is pessimistic about these two expectations, and the stock market is priced relatively well. Once these two contradictions ease, we will be greeted with a new round of money-making opportunities.
Fortunately, during the holiday, Ye Qiu had keenly captured the horn of the counterattack.
1, rate hikes gradually slow down
Compared to inflation, the Federal Reserve is more afraid of recession.
Before, the US dollar index climbed to the terrifying 114, but it has reached its peak recently. There are some small premises for the peak of
USD: one is the rise in the unemployment rate, and the other is the rise in the debt default rate.
This corresponds to the signs of economic recession and financial crisis.
So although the Fed has been very hawkish recently, economic data no longer supports hawkish actions.
U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI fell to its low in more than two years in September.
ISM order index is only 47.1, which is the lowest level since the outbreak of the epidemic, indicating that interest rate hikes have caused demand to weaken.
Therefore, after the PMI data was released, the market began trading recession expectations, and global stock markets started a violent rebound.
Previously, the Federal Reserve was worried that the economy would be overheating, resulting in high inflation, so it raised interest rates wildly, but now there are leading indicators indicating that economic demand is declining, greatly easing the pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates.
If the inflation data and unemployment data in September are not as good as expected, then this is the top of the US dollar index.
Compared with the US dollar, the most important thing for us is the RMB exchange rate.
RMB exchange rate directly affects domestic asset prices.
html Since August, the originally relatively stable RMB exchange rate slope has risen significantly, indicating that interest rate hikes have led to capital outflows.
But fortunately, the exchange rate began to peak under the repeated instructions of the central mother (using the exchange rate tool and working in the future).
Originally, two days before National Day, Ye Qiu expected the RMB exchange rate to peak, and the corresponding RMB assets A shares will have a very good performance.
But unfortunately, the mood was sluggish before the festival, and the trading volume was only a terrifying 500 billion yuan. This little wave cannot make a big wave.
Here we can see how pessimistic the market sentiment is, but how sluggish it is now. The spring compressed to the extreme, and the rebound will be as high as the rebound will be.
In short, from the recent data deduced, the pace of US dollar interest rate hikes will tend to ease in the future, the US dollar index is likely to peak, and the RMB exchange rate has peaked.
external contradictions affecting the trend of A-shares are significantly alleviated, and the balance of valuation will tilt to the other side of the rise in valuation.
2, confidence repair
Recently, the market is more pessimistic about the economy, and the trend of A-shares has also accelerated its decline, because the market is trading expectations that masks will only relax in February next year.
But is this true?
First of all, Hong Kong masks are significantly relaxed , which has been adjusted to 0+3. It is said that it will still be 0+0. It is actively encouraged to come to Hong Kong to consume and take the lead in launching countermeasures for economic recovery.
followed by North Horse started grandly on November 6th, and was previously cancelled in 2020-2021 due to the risk of mask transmission.
This time, North Horse was restarted, with a scale of up to 30,000 participants.
30,000 people can’t wear masks to participate in marathons!
In addition, the Watson MRNA vaccine has been approved overseas for the first time, and it has been approved for marketing overseas. Will it be far away in China?
Various signs indicate that masks have begun to completely turn from the first extreme pessimism, but the market was too pessimistic before, fearing that there would be uncertainty during the National Day holiday, so they directly ignored these sharp changes.
In addition to the relaxation of masks, the most unexpected thing is the continuous stimulation of real estate.
Before the National Day, real estate policies continued to be important.
First, lower the interest rate limit for the first home, and then improve the tax refund for house exchange.
Many people complain about the heavy thunder and small raindrops, which is a future that does not understand the expected one.
As long as you are determined to stabilize the real estate, it will continue to stimulate the future until it is completely stabilized.
The bigger advantage here is to stabilize real estate. If the real estate is stable, the economy will be stable, and if the economy is stable, the stock market will rise.
In short, there will be a good market trend in October.
masks turn (HK, reopened in two years), real estate is stimulating wildly (first house rate cut, house change tax refund); this is the expectation of bottom profits;
The United States began to decline (the lowest point of the epidemic caused by the epidemic), and interest rate hikes slowed down; this is an improvement on the valuation side.
currently has both reversed its profit and valuation. It is just a double-click to cherish the last long time this year!
But unfortunately, the mood was sluggish before the festival, and the trading volume was only a terrifying 500 billion yuan. This little wave cannot make a big wave.
Here we can see how pessimistic the market sentiment is, but how sluggish it is now. The spring compressed to the extreme, and the rebound will be as high as the rebound will be.
In short, from the recent data deduced, the pace of US dollar interest rate hikes will tend to ease in the future, the US dollar index is likely to peak, and the RMB exchange rate has peaked.
external contradictions affecting the trend of A-shares are significantly alleviated, and the balance of valuation will tilt to the other side of the rise in valuation.
2, confidence repair
Recently, the market is more pessimistic about the economy, and the trend of A-shares has also accelerated its decline, because the market is trading expectations that masks will only relax in February next year.
But is this true?
First of all, Hong Kong masks are significantly relaxed , which has been adjusted to 0+3. It is said that it will still be 0+0. It is actively encouraged to come to Hong Kong to consume and take the lead in launching countermeasures for economic recovery.
followed by North Horse started grandly on November 6th, and was previously cancelled in 2020-2021 due to the risk of mask transmission.
This time, North Horse was restarted, with a scale of up to 30,000 participants.
30,000 people can’t wear masks to participate in marathons!
In addition, the Watson MRNA vaccine has been approved overseas for the first time, and it has been approved for marketing overseas. Will it be far away in China?
Various signs indicate that masks have begun to completely turn from the first extreme pessimism, but the market was too pessimistic before, fearing that there would be uncertainty during the National Day holiday, so they directly ignored these sharp changes.
In addition to the relaxation of masks, the most unexpected thing is the continuous stimulation of real estate.
Before the National Day, real estate policies continued to be important.
First, lower the interest rate limit for the first home, and then improve the tax refund for house exchange.
Many people complain about the heavy thunder and small raindrops, which is a future that does not understand the expected one.
As long as you are determined to stabilize the real estate, it will continue to stimulate the future until it is completely stabilized.
The bigger advantage here is to stabilize real estate. If the real estate is stable, the economy will be stable, and if the economy is stable, the stock market will rise.
In short, there will be a good market trend in October.
masks turn (HK, reopened in two years), real estate is stimulating wildly (first house rate cut, house change tax refund); this is the expectation of bottom profits;
The United States began to decline (the lowest point of the epidemic caused by the epidemic), and interest rate hikes slowed down; this is an improvement on the valuation side.
currently has both reversed its profit and valuation. It is just a double-click to cherish the last long time this year!
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-