There will be something wrong with things!
Who is manipulating Next Media’s stocks? Nearly 40 hours after
was arrested, the leader of Hong Kong Jimmy Lai was granted bail in the early morning. In the past two days, in addition to the severe punishments that Jimmy Lai and others will be punished for violating the Hong Kong National Security Law, the stock price of Next Media Company he founded has also attracted much attention from the public.
When the boss and several senior executives were arrested and the company was investigated by the police, Next Media's stock price staged a strange market in three days since the 10th, and it once soared more than 20 times at its peak.
There will be something wrong with it.
Who or what force is it, manipulating Next Media’s stock price behind the scenes? What exactly do they want to do?
01
Let us first sort out the magical process of Next Media's stock price falling and rising in three days.
htmlJie Lai was arrested at around 7 a.m. on the 10th. After the opening of the day, Next Media's stock price plummeted 16%, falling to a historical low of HK$0.075. This seems to be a reasonable manifestation of the boss' arrest.
But in the afternoon, Next Media's stock price suddenly soared, and the trading volume also increased sharply from just a few hundred thousand Hong Kong dollars in the morning to nearly 400 million Hong Kong dollars. The stock price was pushed up 3.4 times at its highest, and even if it fell back at the close, the stock price reached HK$0.255.
Next Media became the stock with the largest increase in the Hong Kong stock market that day, and also set the largest single-day increase in the stock in 20 years of listing.
This is not finished yet. The next day, Next Media's stock price continued to show a strange momentum, firmly rising to HK$1.
In just two days, Next Media's stock rose from a few cents to HK$1.1 at the close of the 11th, an increase of about 20 times.
Today, Next Media rose first and then fell. The highest price in the morning was HK$1.75, and it opened after the afternoon market, falling 41% throughout the day, closing at HK$0.65. But even so, the increase is still considerable compared to HK$0.075 at its low three days ago.
Around this wave of abnormal movement, Next Media issued an announcement on Tuesday stating that apart from the police arrest, the board of directors did not know the reasons for the fluctuations in prices and trading volumes.
What is the reason behind the abnormal stock price of Next Media? It said it didn't know, and even if it knew, it probably wouldn't explain it. But there are already many speculations. The most common statement of
is that this is "small investors" supporting Jimmy Lai and Next Media. Someone with "Ting Next Media" even posted screenshots of their stock purchases on social media, as if that's true.
But this cannot stand scrutiny at all.
Even if there are really supporters who buy it, it is impossible for Next Media’s stock price to change so much. In just two or three days, it soared 20 times, involving circulating funds of several billion Hong Kong dollars. Such a huge capital market cannot be supported by retail investors who buy thousands or tens of thousands of yuan.
The second guess is that the market believes that after Jimmy Lai was arrested, the worst time for Next Media has passed and can "buy at the bottom".
Some people speculate that Next Media is likely to be acquired by others and then replaced, and even the Hong Kong government may take over it.
But this statement is also debatable.
Take yesterday as an example. Next Media sold 4.086 billion shares. But the major shareholder Jimmy Lai holds 71% of the shares, that is, only 29% of Next Media's shares are circulating in the market, about 800 million shares. That is to say, these 800 million shares were sold as many as five or six times in a day.
But no matter how many changes are, Jimmy Lai is still the absolute controller. It is almost impossible to change Next Media’s family by simply replacing the acquisition.
The third guess is that the "market maker" of Next Media stocks may be pulling up the stock price and taking the opportunity to sell, "if you don't take action, you will lose your hands."
A Hong Kong Securities analyst said in an interview that shareholders also hope that the stock price will rise because this stock has been sluggish for many years. Taking this opportunity to swell the stock price, these shareholders can make profits from it.
Market speculation is not completely impossible.
02
In addition to possible stock market speculation, analysts also pointed out that there may be political manipulation behind the abnormal stock price movement of Next Media.
such suspicion and vigilance really need to be there.
For example, there is a saying that overseas funds purchase Next Media’s stocks through securities institutions in Hong Kong. The market was rumored yesterday that the main buyer was capital from Taiwan.
They raise Next Media’s stock price, first of all, to create the illusion that “Hong Kong people support Jimmy Lai and Next Media by buying stocks.”
Secondly, it is also a disguised "settlement fee" to Jimmy Lai. It is well known that Jimmy Lai has the support of the United States, Britain and Hong Kong riots. After Jimmy Lai was arrested, those foreign forces raised their stock prices by purchasing Next Media stocks, making Jimmy Lai's net worth doubled.
Speaking of this, the beneficiaries behind this round of stock price movement in Next Media are probably not the only ones.
A Hong Kong scholar said that through the frequent turnover of Next Media’s stocks over the past three days, it is not ruled out that some people or forces are using the stock to rise in disguise to pay wages to "black violence" elements. Some people even speculate whether some "black violence" will plan new turmoil after collecting money.
People or political forces colluding with Jimmy Lai internally and externally may use ordinary investors who are unknown to be "takers" and cash out in disguise. This is something that cannot be ruled out.
After the implementation of the Hong Kong National Security Law, even Jimmy Lai himself was considered to be likely to run away.
Hong Kong media revealed that the Tai Po Taiping Industrial Center led by Jimmy Lai has recently been entrusted to an agent for sale. Due to the desire to cash out goods, the price of the price dropped rapidly from the initial exceeding HK$166 million to 133 million, a decrease of about 20%. The latest news from
After Jimmy Lai was released on bail early this morning, there have been more discussions about whether he will run away. But to be honest, the chance is not great.
suspects who violate the Hong Kong National Security Law can be released on bail, but at least two must be ensured: one is that they cannot escape, and the other is that they will not destroy the evidence.
When the media reported that Jimmy Lai was released on bail, they only said that they had paid 500,000 yuan in bail, but in fact the police should have deducted his ID. If you want to run, you can only smuggle, but Jimmy Lai is 72 years old and is still on bail, so the chance of smuggling is very small.
In any case, I still need a friendly reminder:
Retail investors who have not fully realized the political manipulation factors behind Next Media’s stock price must carefully take a look at the fundamentals of Next Media’s finance:
This is a company that has been losing money for years. Since 2013, its operating income has been declining continuously, and its profit has been negative since 2016. In the past seven years, Next Media has gradually dropped more than 90% of its market value, and its stock price has almost never risen to HK$1 again.
03
Catch monsters! After Next Media's stock price changed abnormally into a rare " monster stock ", the voices of demanding that Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission immediately investigate the motive behind it continue to increase.
Deng Decheng, chairman of the Hong Kong Political Research Association, a founding group, even directly wrote to the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission on the 11th, complaining that the latter did not suspend Next Media in real time, resulting in a significant change in the stock price. This may harm investors' rights and affect the reputation of Hong Kong's stock trading market.
Deng Decheng asked that Next Media be suspended immediately until the incident is reasonably explained.
But the problem is that the stock price soars alone cannot constitute a basis for suspending trading or direct investigation of it.
Why? Because the Hong Kong stock market only has a limit down, no limit up mechanism. Even if the stock price of a listed company in Hong Kong soars a hundredfold, the regulatory authorities cannot take any measures against it based on this. Some people say that this is a loophole in Hong Kong's regulatory mechanism.
Because of this, in a statement on the abnormal movement of Next Media’s stock price on the 11th, the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission first asked Next Media to disclose financial, operational and other situations in a timely manner, the second was to continue to closely monitor trading activities related to Next Media, and the third was to remind investors to be extra cautious when buying and selling Next Media’s stocks, but did not respond to the call for suspension of Next Media.
However, Deng Decheng and others who called for measures against "monster stocks" were right, that is, this would harm the interests of some investors and affect the reputation of the Hong Kong stock market.
Based on this alone, the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission has the responsibility to investigate Next Media stocks.
Putting aside political factors, a listed company's stock price surged abnormally under the plagued negative news. The regulatory authorities have every reason to suspect it and have the responsibility to investigate it to find out whether there are illegal transactions. This is the only way to protect the interests of retail investors or small investors from infringement.
Some analysts say that a possible illegal operation is that the many "retail investors" who purchase Next Media stocks are forged. Behind
is one or several large securities companies, "big investors" players, who have opened hundreds of retail investors through big data and other means to conduct small-scale trading operations. By gathering many "retail investors" together, the purpose of speculation and speculation can be achieved.
Although Hong Kong's financial laws and regulations have not yet been fully mature, they have corresponding regulations for regulation and handling.
If there is really a trick behind the stock movement of Next Media, clues will eventually be revealed in the strict investigation by the securities regulatory authorities.
Once confirmed, it is not a simple market speculation, but a deliberate operation with political purposes such as disasters and chaos in Hong Kong. Those who are waiting for the mastermind behind the scenes will not only be the "close supervision" and financial punishment of the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission, but also the iron fist and sharp blade to safeguard national security.
Special thanks to Hong Kong issue commentator Deng Fei
Image from the Internet
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