[Text/Observer Network Xiong Chaoran] Over the past 20 years, with the booming development of the global aviation and tourism industry, Boeing and Airbus have made huge wealth. However, this prosperity was broken by the sudden outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic.
US financial media Bloomberg News wrote an analysis article on July 23 saying that in the face of the current world situation and industry situation, China Commercial Aircraft Corporation (Commercial Aircraft Corporation) saw "a good opportunity to break through" and is expected to narrow the gap with Boeing and Airbus, the two aviation giants .
Bloomberg report screenshot
Due to factors such as travel restrictions, lockdown and isolation brought about by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the global aviation industry has inevitably suffered a huge impact. Even large aircraft manufacturers such as Boeing and Airbus have not been optimistic in their financial situation.
Robert Springarn, an analyst at Credit Suisse Group AG, believes that the COVID-19 pandemic "may be one of the factors that significantly change the competitive environment of the industry". Some companies are busy getting out of the situation, while others with less stress may make a difference.
Bloomberg pointed out that reducing spending and laying off employees is the approach that most airline companies are currently taking.
Airbus encountered "zero orders" in June, which is the third month of this year that the company has not obtained new business. Airbus currently plans to lay off 15,000 employees, accounting for 11% of the total employee share. Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury warned in April that the company was facing a dilemma of "cash loss."
Boeing's situation is not much better. The company announced in May that it would lay off more than 6,700 employees. Due to the safety issues of the Boeing 737 Max model and the epidemic, Boeing has lost more than 600 orders in the first five months of this year. On April 25, Boeing also announced the termination of a US$4.2 billion deal with Embraer, a maker of Brazilian aircraft.
However, Bloomberg intelligence analyst George Ferguson said: "Just as other companies cut spending, companies like COMAC with a large amount of government funds can now continue to move forward."
Currently, the ARJ21 is the only aircraft operated by COMAC, which can carry up to 90 passengers. On July 10, the CA1109 flight operated by the new ARJ21-700 turbofan regional passenger plane from Beijing Capital International Airport to Xilinhot Airport , successfully completing the maiden flight mission and officially put into operation of the route.
Previously, only Chengdu Airlines , Tianjiao Airlines and other companies operated ARJ21 aircraft. But in June this year, COMAC delivered ARJ21 aircraft to China International Airlines, China Eastern Airlines , and China Southern Airlines for the first time. These three major airlines will receive a total of 105 aircraft by 2024. In addition, China Airlines also signed an agreement with COMAC, which plans to introduce and operate 100 ARJ21-700 and C919 aircraft from 2020.
ARJ21 aircraft is officially included in the fleet of Air China, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines. Picture from COMAC’s official website
According to the forecast report released by COMAC in 2018, in the next 20 years, China will have strong demand for commercial aircraft in China, and China is expected to deliver 9,008 passenger aircraft worth about US$1.3 trillion.
At present, the C919 single-aisle passenger aircraft designed by COMAC has completed its test flight and will be delivered and put into use in 2021. The goal will be to compete with Boeing 737 and Airbus A320. In addition, the CR929 long-range wide-body passenger aircraft jointly cooperated by COMAC and Russian companies is also under development.
On May 5, 2017, the first flight of the domestic large aircraft C919 was successful in its first flight from COMAC official website
However, COMAC is actually facing certain challenges. Some believe that the aerospace products made in China are “not certified outside the country”; others believe that the pandemic will lead to a slow recovery in international air travel, and many airlines are not even too late to sell oversupply aircraft, so aircraft sales will be more difficult.
Bloomberg pointed out at the end of the analysis article that, compared with the United States, at least the epidemic in China has been basically controlled, and domestic airlines in China have shown some signs of recovery.
Richard Aboulafia, an analyst at the Teal Group, an aviation market research firm, believes that recent tensions in Sino-US relations may prompt Chinese airlines to purchase their own aircraft, which is very similar to the situation when commercial aircraft produced in the Soviet Union became popular in the country during the Cold War for some political reasons.
Abrafia said: "We know that the ending of the Soviet Union is not very good, but China is different from the Soviet Union, and China is likely to succeed."
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