is used to listening to "no big impact on stock market liquidity". Why not try to calculate how big the scale of IPO financing that A shares will face in the future?
The stock market's IPO is like a landslide lake. The higher the gate blockage, the larger the Honghu .
In 2017, the overall IPO financing scale of A-shares was only 210 billion. In the first half of 2018, the IPO hole was re-tied a "slip knot" - entering the venue with a ticket. As of June 7. The total amount of funds raised in the A-share initial public offering was limited to a pitiful 51.8 billion yuan, and countless IPOs were cut and cleared. The careful arrangement of
will finally usher in the opening of the gate. There are signs that A-shares will face a financing demand of 1,000 billion yuan in the future, waiting for the incremental funds of A-shares to be resolved.
trillion IPO "Normandy Landing"
1. "Unicorn" 300 billion?
At 23:42 on June 6, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued 9 documents in a row to pave the way for CDR to raise funds in A-shares. This also means that the CDR of unicorns has entered the historical stage of A-shares with its average efficiency compared to the " registration system ".
How large the financing scale will the listing of unicorns cause? The scope provided by securities companies is very large, ranging from about 270 billion to 700 billion. Judging from the more official statement and the recent frequency of machetes for a single IPO, 300 billion may be a credible data.
Unicorns enter the market will cause two effects. One is the blood draw effect, the other is the siphon effect - on the one hand, the stock game funds in the stock market are attracted by new stocks, and on the other hand, due to the emergence of new hot spots in the market, speculative game funds have begun to leave traditional hot spots, and work together to speculate on new hot spots, resulting in the rise in the valuation of unicorn CDRs. The blood draw effect of
is controllable. The 300 billion yuan of funds is not much more, and the lesser one is not much, but the siphon effect is uncontrollable.
The amount of siphon effect depends on how high the valuation of the new economy is. As the market value of unicorn stocks expands, a large amount of market funds are frozen in high-valuation new economy stocks. Siphon expands in proportion with the increase in market value. If you find that unicorns generally double, then its siphon effect may reach 600 billion. The more it rises, the more it absorbs.
is difficult for you to determine. With the lessons of 360, the valuation of BATJ will be higher than the more crazy BATJ, and the siphon it will bring.
2. Shanghai-London Stock Connect/GDR draws 460 billion blood?
has you ever heard of GDR?
GDR is a replica of CDR, G stands for Global, which means global. It is understood that GDR will be first used in the Shanghai-London Stock Connect. The London Stock Exchange will select stocks in the FTSE 100 index to issue GDRs on A-shares.
Simply put, after the launch of the Shanghai-London Stock Connect, the British will go to A-shares to issue their shares. According to CITIC Securities , the fundraising scale of GDR on the London Stock Exchange will be 460 billion yuan, which is even higher than the 300 billion yuan of CDR, which is almost equivalent to the domestic issuance scale of 55 billion pounds on the London Stock Exchange - a bilateral credit swap at the securities level.
Recently, discussions about the Shanghai-London Stock Connect were put on paper again. The latest news is that regulators hope to "open the Shanghai-London Stock Connect before the end of the year."
3. 200 billion in the financial industry?
Today, CITIC Construction Investment’s IPO opened with a financing scale of 2 billion yuan. It ranked among the top IPOs this year, second only to the unicorn WuXi AppTec.
On June 5, China Insurance IPO passed the review, conservatively estimated the financing scale was 15 billion, and the financing capital set a financing record for A-shares in the past two years.
On May 29, the Agricultural Bank of China passed the meeting with a 100 billion yuan private placement, and the implementation is imminent.
Since the beginning of this year, the issuance of two major mothership-level regulatory chapters, "Measures for the Management of Liquidity Risk of Commercial Banks" and "Guiding Opinions on Regulating Asset Management Business of Financial Institutions", which have been brewing for ten years, means that the desire for a new round of capital demand in the financial industry has begun to become superficial.
In the first half of this year, Jiangsu Leasing, West China Securities and Chengdu Bank ranked first, second and fifth in A-share financing scale. The listed CICC ranked eighth. The listing of PICC will undoubtedly squeeze out the rankings of these little brothers.
But, this is not over yet.Since the beginning of this year, bank IPO review has progressed slowly. After Harbin Bank and Huishang Bank have successively withdrawn, there are still 16 banks in line with A-share markets, and the financing scale is expected to be around 50 billion.
Under the new asset management regulations, securities companies will also be listed in a rush. Hualin, Great Wall and Tianfeng will also be listed, with the expected financing scale of around 10 billion.
4. Really "not stressed"?
It is worth mentioning that whether it is financing in the financial industry, unicorn financing or Shanghai-London Connect financing, when it is a single case analysis object of securities firms, it will be compared with the A-share financing scale in 2017 (210 billion IPO + 120 billion additional issuance). Analysts often say in a comforting tone that "the financial pressure is not great."
Yes - at first glance, the isolated 300 billion and 460 billion are indeed less than the 1.4 trillion in 2017. However, considering that the remaining IPOs will also be launched, considering that the targeted additional issuance will become more and more as the IPO holes become tighter, and considering that most of the 1200 billion additional issuances in 2017 are not directly demanding money from the secondary market, and these 1200 billion will release the pressure of lifting the ban in 2018, we have to be wary of the impact of future financing peaks on the A-share stock game market.
is the success of the trillion-dollar financing
. The price and scale are two feet, while the actual carrying capacity and spiritual carrying capacity of A-shares are two pillars.
blood draw effect is a sensitive word in the hearts of A-share public. The tombstones of several bull markets all came to the peak of IPOs, so smart regulators tried to complete the market comfort work before large-scale financing, and they have emerged one after another since the first half of 2016.
Since 2018, the regulatory authorities have clearly expressed their attitudes and even made people feel a little unkind, just to arouse even a little investment enthusiasm.
1. Divide all the reds
In July 2017, China Shenhua released a dividend case of RMB 2.51 per share, with a total value of RMB 59.1 billion, setting a company's dividend history. At the beginning of 2018, regulators continued to pay dividends for the whole nation, resulting in Langsha Co., Ltd., which has never paid dividends for 20 years, announced this year that it had "Iron Tree Blooming". What is the difference between
dividends and no dividends? From the perspective of the amount of equity, dividends and no dividends do not affect the company's shareholders' rights. "After all, you just changed your place to install money and deducted income tax." However, in the most classic securities market theory, dividends have actually been a "counter-process" of IPO blood draw, and are the largest source of incremental funds in the stock market.
From the perspective of market mechanism, most of the dividends earned by investors will still be invested in the stock market. Specifically, it is used to copy the original asset allocation (there are more institutional investors), forming an indirect and independent "repurchase chain". For example, the deified dividends are still one-third higher than before dividends even on the basis of deductions. This is the best example of the positive feedback on market value caused by the repurchase chain.
Just imagine, if the A-share market has a dividend yield of 4%, there will be 2 trillion yuan in a year for dividends, and about 1 trillion yuan can be used to fill the financing needs of the A-share market. Why worry about not raising money for IPOs?
Many analysts believe that the dividend promotion at that time was a signal light that the regulatory authorities lit up when the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 bull market was facing a window period.
2. Foreign capital, "A-shares welcome you"
In the past few years, the regulators have done three things to introduce overseas capital, including striving for MSCI allocation funds, expanding the amount of investment attracted by QFII, and allowing foreign capital to enter the domestic financial industry in a controlling stake.
In order to further stimulate QFII consumption, the regulatory authorities have also lifted the restrictions on the shareholding ratio of QFII single-ticket investment.
The result of this is that the 150 billion QFII permit quota updated by the China Securities Regulatory Commission in July 2015 was 143.765 billion in the first quarter of this year, with a usage ratio of 95%. Both the absolute and relative ratios hit a record high, which means that if foreign capital is to continue to attract foreign investment to expand domestic investment, the QFII limit needs to be expanded again within a few months. From a realistic perspective, the possibility of this is extremely high.
Interestingly, some people found that foreigners did not buy it.
Red Finance once reported on the situation of incremental funds inflows abroad after the "CSRC stated that MSCI allocation has been basically completed". Most MSCI funds are mainly based on the layout of domestic investment management entities, with the allocation strength of about 1,000. In contrast, the net inflow of funds from overseas inflows allocated to A-shares is almost zero.
3. Clean up the IPO queue
In March this year, the investment banking circle received a window guidance from the China Securities Regulatory Commission, saying that it was a plan to "dissuade 50% of the IPO companies to withdraw." The specific situation is - for companies that retrial IPOs, the profits of less than 100 million yuan in three years and do not reach 50 million in the last year, and will not be allowed to go public; for companies that newly declared, the net profits of the last year must exceed 80 million, and the GEM shall not be less than 50 million, otherwise the approval will not be given.
Tiger Finance specifically asked investment bankers for confirmation of this matter at that time and received a reply that "this is true".
At that time, there were many discussions about unicorn listing and CDR preparations circulating in the market, and IPOs were called "invitation system" by some big Vs.
The three most recent unicorn IPOs: WuXi AppTec, Ningde Times and Industrial Fulian all have one thing in common, that is, the amount of funds raised has been reduced. WuXi AppTec's financing scale has been reduced from 5.74 billion to 2.13 billion; CATL's financing is expected to disclose 13 billion, but after actual modification, it shrank to 5.46 billion; Industrial and Financial Network raised 27.1 billion with revenue of more than 200 billion, but it is still questioned that it has "adjusted the amount of funds raised."
In contrast, the financial industry has the highest IPO raised this year, West China Securities, with about 4.967 billion yuan. As a non-unicorn but a financial institution, the financing amount has not been cut, which is obviously a different ranking. The function of
A shares has always been defined as a financing tool for the real economy. However, there have always been big shots in the investment circle that A-shares have never advocated the investment function of A-shares without any distractions from beginning to end. The investment function of the stock market may not necessarily contribute to economic construction and reform.
For this trillion-dollar financing, the big V Cao Shanshi said that A-shares replaced the concept of "expanding the scale of financing" with "promoting the listing of unicorns." Some people also say that the regulators did not use the name of "registration system", but implemented the reality of "registration system".
Finally, some people speculate that there will always be a heavenly soldier and heaven will come, and they may be our long-lost comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut.
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