There are also reports that India, which has been separated from British colonial rule for 75 years, surpassed Britain in GDP and became the fifth largest economy in the world, reflecting the continued decline in Britain's influence.

Author: Wulou

Recently, former British Foreign Secretary Elizabeth Trass (Liz Truss) became the third female prime minister in British history after Margaret Thatcher and Theresa May . There are also reports that India, which has been separated from British colonial rule for 75 years, surpassed the United Kingdom in GDP (GDP) and became the fifth largest economy in the world, reflecting the continued decline in Britain's influence. Trass' election highlighted the "turmoil" of the UK's economic and political situation. British media such as " Financial Times " used the new word "omnishambles" (total chaos) to describe the change of leadership of No. 10 Downing Street.

Four Prime Ministers and five Foreign Ministers in six years, and frequent government changes after Brexit have continuously consumed the trust of the British people in the government. The international community's perception and understanding of the United Kingdom is also changing. Trass' election did not eliminate the concerns of the British people, and the international community was full of doubts about him.

Prime Minister

When Tras ran for the leader of the Conservative Party, he was described by the Financial Times and other British media as the "worst first-choice candidate" by British media such as the Financial Times. The UK is currently facing a bad internal and external environment, including the energy crisis intensified by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, high inflation and strike protests. From a confidence and psychological perspective, the reshuffle of 10 Downing Street did not improve business sentiment and boost market performance, which was also a major blow to the already bleak UK economic outlook. On September 5, the pound fell to its lowest level since 1985 against the dollar, further reflecting the severe situation in the UK economy. At present, the UK's inflation has reached 13%, a 40-year high.

▲From left to right: Johnson , Theresa May, Brown, Cameron , Blair .

Since the beginning of Brexit, Cameron, Theresa May and Johnson have been forced to resign and bid farewell to politics. Many public opinion has already speculated on the fate of the Prime Minister of Tras. This is related to the overall public opinion and atmosphere in the UK.

Conservative Intra-party elections seem to give British voters the illusion of "regime change". In fact, the party election has nothing to do with mainstream public opinion. The number of voters only accounts for 0.3% of the national population (60 million), and will not take care of the demands of ordinary voters. Tras's premiership is not in line with the demands of British voters for a strong leader. Another partisan-wide poll by YouGov found that only 12% of British people expected Tras to become a good or great prime minister. In the eyes of ordinary British people, Trass is a weak leader. What really affects the election results is still economic issues, including the essence of Johnson's resignation due to the political pressure caused by intensified economic issues. The outcome of the 2024 British general election will also depend on economic issues. During the campaign, Tras intends to stop the recession through tax cuts by imitating Mrs. Thatcher . However, in the context of current high inflation and recession, financing the tax cuts by borrowing will increase financial market risks and are not in line with Thatcher's government's commitment to reduce borrowing. Once his economic "prescription" doesn't work, Tras will face the risk of stepping down.

▲On September 6, the new British Prime Minister Elizabeth Trass delivered an inauguration speech outside the Prime Minister's Office at 10 Downing Street.

Both the public opinion and the market are not optimistic about Tras' election. In addition to her deliberately imitating Thatcher's personal style and her overly tough and radical policy tendencies, it is mainly because the Conservative government has limited available means, and it is difficult for her to effectively deal with the domestic and foreign challenges facing the UK after she came to power. One of the key factors is the lack of steady and rational leaders in the British political arena in recent years, which indirectly led to the decline of Britain's international influence.

The international status of Britain should have

In the first half of the 19th century, the British Empire glorious period, Britain's colonial expansion reached its peak.In the 20th century, after world wars, , Britain voluntarily recognized the dominance of the United States, and during the battle for , it became an ordinary European country. After the end of the Cold War , Britain was dependent on the United States and acted as the "pawn" of the United States. After Brexit, Britain has become more dependent on the United States.

Although the discussion of the "sunset dusk" of the empire in this century has always existed, it is undeniable that Britain is still one of the Western powers, with an advantage in terms of economic scale, military strength, human resources, social and political resilience, and the constitutional model it represents. For example, as a veteran industrial country, the UK has an advantage in semiconductors, chips, biopharmaceuticals, environmental science and military industry. This is also one of the reasons why the United States is afraid of Chinese technology companies such as , Huawei, , and other html.

▲ From June 26 to 28, the three-day G7 summit was held in southern Germany, .

From an economic perspective, the total GDP of the UK in 2021 reached US$3.11 trillion, ranking sixth in the world, but the per capita GDP of the UK is about US$46,200, higher than economically developed countries such as Japan (US$40,700), France (US$45,000), Italy (US$35,600). India's per capita GDP in 2021 is only US$2,100. The UK is also leading the way in terms of finance, insurance and welfare systems and cultural influence. Among them, the capital London is the world's largest international foreign exchange market and the largest commodity trading market.

In addition, the United Kingdom is also one of the Five Constables of the United Nations, the Five Eyes Alliance and the AUKUS Alliance, and is also a military ally in the NATO system second only to the United States. It has a certain voice in the international security situation. For example, judging from the Iraq War , Libyan War and the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Britain is an indispensable "bridgehead" for Europe, the United States and the West. Under the NATO framework and the US-UK iron-core alliance system, the British military has strong military deterrence capabilities, which can operate unilaterally and can cooperate bilaterally and multilaterally (US-U-UK-French), which can be said to be at ease within the European security system.

Therefore, the decline in Britain's strength is relatively and has certain special features.

In fact, another aspect of the discussion on "British decline" refers more to the failure or inability to assume the international obligations and responsibilities it should bear as a Western power. Japan is also a developed economy, but due to historical and constitutional factors, Japan plays a limited international role. The UK is different. Although its national strength has declined relatively, the international community still has high expectations for it. The same expectation also exists in the UK, where British voters have been tired of leaders of disadvantaged countries in recent years and are eager to see a strong leader.

The lack of leadership in the UK now is manifested in the strategic loss in the process of development, mainly due to the lack of intelligent political leaders. Kissinger said that the current international community lacks strong, courageous and intelligent leaders, which is also a judgment made by Johnson, Trump and others coming to power and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict cannot be alleviated. Not only are they unable to resolve geopolitical conflicts and domestic dilems, they are also sensational on the international stage, keen on political shows, and are lacking in international convention. They have not actively sought solutions to difficult problems such as economic difficulties, climate change, nuclear proliferation and regional conflicts. Trass is also part of this type of leader.

Lost from politicians to the country

Even though the UK has a certain advantage in the fields of population resources, technology, finance, military, culture, etc., it cannot withstand the squander and internal friction of politicians. Until Tras proved himself, Britain still lacked excellent political leaders who matched its strength and status.

At the beginning of the 21st century, after Blair came to power, he launched "bridge diplomacy" and "hub diplomacy" to act as the "hub" of the United States, Europe and the international community.After the financial crisis broke out in 2008, Gordon Brown, who succeeded him, played a core role in coordinating the West to deal with the credit crisis, but it is obvious that Britain's economic voice was no longer as good as Germany, France, China and Japan at that time. This is also the main reason why the Cameron Conservative government strengthened relations with emerging economies such as China and India after the Cameron Conservative government came to power in 2010. In early 2015, the Cameron government proposed to build a "golden age" and "golden decade" for Sino-UK relations.

But the 2016 Brexit referendum caused the UK's European influence to decline rapidly. The Conservative Party does not want Britain to continue to act as a "hub" after Brexit, but to lead the "global". Therefore, Theresa May once proposed the "Global Britain" strategy. After Johnson took office, he refined and put the strategy into practice, such as supporting Ukraine with a high-profile basis and setting the G7 agenda. But the biggest problem with this strategy is that it cannot be separated from the leadership of the United States.

For example, the UK hyped the topic of Hong Kong in China, to some extent, to cooperate with the United States' need to use Hong Kong topics to upgrade its game against China. At that time, it was less than two years since Cameron proposed the slogan of "Golden Age" between China and Britain. The abandonment of the strategy of strengthening China-UK bilateral relations is not because of problems with China-UK trade relations, but because the conservative US government wants to use topics such as Taiwan and Hong Kong to surround China after it came to power, so Britain has to agree and participate. This can also be seen from the fact that the UK initially accepted Huawei and finally chose to ban Huawei under pressure from the United States.

After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Britain's dependence on the United States became even more serious. This means that the autonomy and independence that Britain seeks after Brexit cannot be achieved at all. The Global UK strategy has basically been abandoned.

▲ Scottish National Party (SNP) once again emphasized the necessity of Scottish independence on September 5. (SNP Twitter photo)

After Brexit, the UK has increased its autonomy on the surface, but its vitality has been severely damaged and its international status has not improved. The populist trend behind the election of Johnson and Trass is profoundly affecting Britain, and the public's trust in political parties is also declining. Therefore, Tras will also be more tough and even radical in diplomacy. But the strategy of strong externally and working at the middle will only make the Conservative government look more weak. For example, on the issue of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Tras will inherit Johnson's policy, insist on weapons assistance to Ukraine, and adopt a tough stance to Russia. However, like the domestic inflation and energy crisis, she has very limited room for play. After all, the current British Conservative Party lacks new political thinking and it is difficult to have new creativity.

Although it is chaotic and full of uncertainty, there is still a chance in the UK. During Cameron's administration, the Conservative Party was able to strengthen cooperation with France and Germany, demonstrated a certain geopolitical influence, and cooperated with the United States to promote Britain's economic strategic layout in Southeast Asia and East Asia. The new conservative government still has a chance to find opportunities in the crisis before the next election.

premise is that the Conservative government must first control domestic political risks, such as the possible referendum of Scotland and the issues of Northern Ireland Protocol. If such political risks are not handled well, the UK may continue to be internally fouled and divided. Previously, Cameron's Brexit referendum was a kind of political gambling, but he lost the bet. If internal political risks are not handled well, the UK will only move towards more chaos and division, further reducing the UK's international status and influence.