Stock index futures : Shanghai Composite Index once fell below 3200 points, and foreign capital made a sharp net purchase of
[Today's market] The four major futures indexes rose and fell. IH2209 closed at 2764, closing up 1.29%; IF2209 closed at 4081.4, closing up 0.18%; IC2209 closed at 6139.4, closing down 1.95%; IM2209 closed at 6710.2, closing down 3.21%.
overall market performance today is weak. The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3200 points again after nearly a month. The style of large and small markets has switched again, and the small market represents CSI 1000 Index fell more than 200 points. In terms of sectors, the big financial and consumer sectors performed strongly, driving the IH to fluctuate upward throughout the day, and performed the strongest among the four major futures indexes. New energy, automobile and other sectors fell by more than 4%. More than 4,100 html stocks in the two markets closed down, and the total turnover returned to more than one trillion yuan, reaching 1002.29 billion yuan.
[Funding Situation] Northbound funds have made a significant net purchase, with a net purchase of 7.9 billion yuan today. HTM The winning rate of the 7-day reverse repurchase is 2%, the same as before. Funds between banks are still relatively abundant. Although DR007 rebounds, it still operates at a low level, and the loose monetary policy has not changed.
[Basics] Both manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing PMI in August exceeded expectations, which will be beneficial to market sentiment in the short term. At the same time, the slight rebound of manufacturing PMI has also strengthened the positive effects of the market index, which mainly focuses on big finance and consumption, but it cannot make the current market's expectations for the economy significantly shift, and the stock index does not change its structural fluctuation.
At the same time, the Politburo meeting last night determined the meeting of the 20th National Congress, which will further enhance the positive effects on the market index. In addition, IH has been pulled back to the technical support level, and it is not ruled out that IH may be stronger than IM and IC in the short term. In the medium term, given that the current market expectations for the economy and policy have not changed, there is no systemic risk that IM and IC are stronger than IH, and we are still optimistic that the small and medium-sized index will be relatively stronger.
Views and suggestions: The short-term market style rotation is faster, and it is necessary to further determine the reversal points of multi-IM short IH and multi-IC short IH arbitrage.
precious metals: The investment demand for gold and silver ETFs has not changed to the downward trend, and the short-term negative for gold and silver has been strengthened
[Today's market] Both gold and silver closed down. AU2212 closed at 386.92, closing down 0.77%; AG2212 closed at 4202, closing down 1.38%. US dollar index fluctuated at a temporary high above 108, and the short-term suppression of gold and silver is still there; the yield on ten-year US bond returned to 3.1%, the real interest rate end was stronger than the inflation expectations end, and it returned to 0.5% after one month, and the short-term suppression of gold and silver is strengthened.
[Investment Demand] In terms of ETF holdings , on August 30, the world's largest gold ETF-SPDR holdings decreased by 4.35 tons to 976.26 tons, and the world's largest silver ETF-SLV holdings decreased by 17.20 tons to 14,559.78 tons. The demand for gold and silver ETF has not changed the accelerated downward trend since August 15, and the short-term negative impact on gold and silver has been strengthened.
[Brand] Powell and many Feder officials continue to convey the Federal Reserve's determination to suppress inflation. The market's expected probability of the Federal Reserve hike of 75 basis points in September has reached more than 70%. The US dollar index runs at a high level, real interest rates strengthen, and the two major indicators strengthen at the same time. It is negative for gold and silver in the short term, but there are no hawkish remarks that exceed expectations. It is expected that there is limited room for gold and silver to pull back. White House may cool down before the release of the major non-agricultural on Friday, which will weaken the market's expectations for another 75 basis points increase in interest rates in September to a certain extent. It may increase the bottom support of gold and silver in the short term, but it is expected that it will be difficult to break the current volatile pattern.
Views and suggestions: Maintain the clear view at the bottom of gold and silver in the early stage. The short-term weakening of gold and silver has led to an increase in the winning rate of medium and long-term bullishness.
Coke: Pessimism spreads, steel mills intend to reduce the first round of
price: Today's 09 contract closed at 2520,01 contract closed at 2454, and the port's quasi-level coke warehouse receipt cost is 2824 yuan/ton.
downstream: The coke market is running weakly, and the prices of finished materials have continued to fall recently. The profitability of steel mills has declined. In addition, the consumer market is still weak. Steel mills are more cautious about raw material procurement.
Supply: Coke enterprises slowed down, inventory in the production area increased again, coke enterprises increased their shipments, and some of the central and western regions had a situation of shipment decline, and market sentiment further weakened.
Market sentiment: With the sharp decline in futures, the demand side is still suppressed under the epidemic, and it is difficult to release effectively. Mainstream bearish expectations are intensified, and the downward risk of coke spot prices in the short term increases. In the later stage, we need to continue to pay attention to changes in the inventory of the production site and the profits of steel mills.
Views and suggestions: Entering the last day of the delivery month, 09 coke fell by nearly 8%, hitting a new low. It is not ruled out that the basis for the 01 contract will be too large after the decline in the future.
Crude oil: Iraq situation plus European natural gas crisis, crude oil prices fluctuate in the short term
futures market, Berry Oil is currently fluctuating in the integer mark of US$95, and the domestic SC2210 contract closes at 716.5, a sharp decline.
Supply side: The progress of the Iran nuclear negotiations is not going well. Iranian said that if the verification is not stopped or the agreement will not be signed, Israel actively lobbying United States abandoned the agreement, and the prospects of the Iran nuclear power are cast a shadow. OPEC means that it will adjust its own output based on the amount of crude oil released by Iran.
Geopolitical aspects: In the early morning of August 30, Beijing time, Iraq announced a nationwide curfew. Previously, some demonstrators broke into the Prime Minister's Office of the "Green Zone", and militants clashed with Iraqi security forces and exchanged fire, which caused market concerns and supported oil prices to rise on the 30th. Yesterday, Iraq SOMO announced that Iraq's oil export business was not affected by the "green zone" conflict, and market sentiment was digested, and oil prices began to fall today.
Demand side: The downward pressure on the global economy is obvious, and the annual crude oil demand expectations have been repeatedly lowered, and weak demand still exists. US inventories continued to fall sharply, cracking profits rebounded significantly, and inflation remained unsolved; after the coal embargo policy for Russia came into effect, Europe's energy crisis was severe.
Macro: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell warned on Friday that Americans will enter a painful period of slow economic growth and possible rise in unemployment as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to combat inflation at a 40-year high, and this speech tells people in his most straightforward language to date the challenges the U.S. economy will face. In an opening speech for the central bank's symposium in Jackson Hall, Wyoming on Friday, Powell said the Fed would raise borrowing costs to the level needed to limit growth and would remain at that level "for a period of time" to drive inflation back.
Views and suggestions: The macro economy is still weak, and the market is pessimistic about subsequent demand. In the medium and long term, the current market logic of crude oil is still the logic of demand decline. The overall view of crude oil fluctuations remains unchanged. It is recommended to be bearish at high levels. In the short-term Iraq coup, the European natural gas crisis supports the space below oil prices, and the range is expected to fluctuate mainly.
methanol : The sharp drop in crude oil has driven the center of gravity of methanol to move downward. It is recommended to bearish at the
futures market at highs. The methanol 2301 contract closed slightly lower, with a closing price of 2574. Jiangsu spot quotation is 2535-2540, and the market transactions are average.
Supply side: The domestic methanol operating rate continued to decline this week. Due to poor profits, new maintenance devices were added this week, including Shenmu Chemical and Qinghai Zhonghao. Among the early maintenance devices, Chongqing Kabele, Dagang, Shilin Chemical, Hening Chemical, Sino-Singapore Chemical, Aowei Qianyuan and other devices are still under maintenance.In terms of foreign markets, the parking and maintenance of 4 sets of 7.25 million tons/year methanol equipment in the Middle East accounted for 58.97% of the overall methanol production capacity in other regions of the Middle East. Two devices attempted to restart this week, and imports are expected to increase in September.
Demand side: This week, the start of MTO, dimethyl ether and methyl contraction rose, acetic acid and DMF started to decline, and other downstream methanol companies remained the same. Downstream demand remains weak, and urgent needs are needed to replenish the inventory. Domestic terminal demand has been poorly boosted, and it is still quite disturbed by the epidemic.
Inventory: Methanol inland and ports both saw inventory declines this week, down 0.6% and 8.3% respectively month-on-month.
Views and suggestions: Crude oil fell sharply today, energy and chemical prices fell sharply today, and methanol had limited declines based on low valuation. In terms of supply and demand, the fundamentals of oversupply have not been alleviated. New maintenance devices have been added on the supply side, and the operating rate has declined, but terminal demand is weaker. Returning to its own weak fundamentals, methanol fluctuates more often in the short term, and short positions can continue to be held at high levels. Short-term short positions are recommended for those without positions.
Palm Oil : New news is limited, and oil and fats remain fluctuated in the short term
Palm Oil 2301 contract rose 1.68% during the day, closing at 8,588 yuan/ton; Guangzhou market palm oil is 9,255 yuan/ton.
supply: Indonesia has entered a period of high palm oil production. In order to continue to encourage exports, Indonesia has extended the tariff exemption policy from the end of this month to the end of October. In addition, Indonesia raises the export price of gross palm oil, so its export pressure remains; Malaysia palm oil production has increased, but the Malaysian ringgit exchange rate is weak. At the same time, Malay lowers the reference price of gross palm oil, which supports the price of horse palm. After Indonesia raises the export price of gross palm oil, the price of horse palm may increase.
Demand: Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are coming soon, and the domestic market demand for stocking has increased, and short-term demand is supported; but after the double-featured stocking is over, oil consumption will enter the off-season again. In addition, the epidemic restricts terminal demand, downstream consumption is insufficient to boost.
1 alternative: Soybean oil is still affected by the US soybean weather hype at the supply side and is firm in the short term; the fundamentals of rapeseed oil are temporarily lacking, and the basics are slightly weaker than other varieties.
Summary: Palm oil's own fundamentals are in a pattern of oversupply and insufficient driving; domestic oil and fat inventory remains low to support the market, but with the continuous replenishment of domestic palm oil inventory, the fundamentals of palm oil are limited; however, the resonance of the oil and fat market has made palm oil susceptible to the influence of other oil and fat trends and the macro environment, and is treated with a strong short-term trend, and there is a possibility of a decline in the medium and long term.
Views and suggestions: It is recommended to treat short-term oscillations with strong thinking and pay attention to the risk of market decline in the future.
Soybean meal: US soybeans lack new hype materials, soybean meal remains volatile as US soybeans
soybean meal 2301 contract rose 0.72% during the day, closing price 3789 yuan/ton, and spot Zhangjiagang 43% protein soybean meal 4400 yuan/ton.
Supply side: Pro?Farmer's latest national output estimate report is expected to produce 51.7 bush per acre this year, with output reaching 4.535 billion bushhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
As a comparison, the US Department of Agriculture predicted in August that the average yield of soybeans in the United States would be 51.9 cloves per acre, with an output of 4.531 billion cloves. US soybean production has slightly decreased compared with the USDA report in August, but the decline is limited; coupled with the high probability of soybean production in South America in the future, global soybean supply still has a loose trend in the future, and the cost of soybean meal may gradually decline in the future. Domestic soybeans arrive in Hong Kong in recent months, and the downstream is now on pick-up period, so the overall supply of soybean meal is tight.
Demand side: Supported by the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, the demand for live pigs is still acceptable, and the demand for feed is also maintained optimistic. However, the COVID-19 pandemic suppressed terminal consumption, and subsequent feed formulas may be adjusted, it is still unknown whether the subsequent demand will expand.
Other factors: global drought is obvious, crop yields may be affected, and global crop yield reductions may push up agricultural product prices.
Views and suggestions: Weather concerns and domestic supply tightness, the soybean meal 2301 contract still maintains a strong trend, but the continuous driving is insufficient. Pay attention to the risk of rising and falling in the future market.
Source: Sanli Futures
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