Introduction: This year, due to the impact of the overseas epidemic, the domestic shipping market has been seriously affected, and shipping transportation costs have experienced an incomprehensible increase.
An ordinary container is shipped from China to the west coast of the United States, and the freight is as high as US$16,000-20,000. This is impossible in any previous year.
, especially the freezer related to agricultural product exports, is even more difficult to find. Many friends who do foreign trade exports of agricultural products should have a deep understanding.
In August, my country exported a total of "fresh or refrigerated garlic" to about 215,350 tons, while the export volume in the same period last year was 176,230 tons, an increase of 22.2% year-on-year.
The export volume of garlic has increased for the first time after five consecutive months of year-on-year declines!
In August, my country's export volume of "dried garlic" (garlic powder, garlic slices) was about 19,500 tons, while the export volume was 15,540 tons in the same period last year, with the export volume increasing by 25.54% year-on-year.
Countries have increased their efforts to supervise maritime transportation, and some shipping companies have announced that they have frozen shipping prices. Can the chaos in maritime transportation change?
Domestic garlic export trade mostly uses FOB (on-ship delivery price), that is, the importer bears the transportation costs. Therefore, the increase in freight costs does not cause any major losses for domestic garlic exporters.
However, due to the increase in freight, many merchants have extended the pickup time. They hope to wait until this price increase cycle has passed before shipping.
is becoming more and more common, and export garlic that has been processed and packaged has to be temporarily stored in the warehouse. Delayed shipment greatly increases the pressure on warehouse storage. Over time, it is easy to lose orders.
In fact, the increase in sea freight costs also includes additional expenses such as retention fees and congestion fees. Especially these new policies to increase costs are still increasing, and the high costs have caused many foreign trade companies to suffer.
and some domestic garlic traders, when the freight costs first increased, they negotiated with customers and each bear half of the costs, but many customers would rather not have goods than bear high transportation costs.
In the end, the high freight costs will still be paid by consumers. The price of goods has also risen with the sea freight costs, which has increased several times.
Regulatory agencies in various countries have begun to pay attention to the "sky-high freight" situation, and some countries have also begun to crack down on unfair charging.
Perhaps due to regulatory pressure, in mid-September, shipping giants chose to freeze sea freight prices, but the "freeze price" does not mean that sea freight prices are constant, and freezing of sea freight fees is just freezing spot prices.
does not exclude additional additional charges, which has become a major burden for import and export merchants, and the charges are usually excluded from the freight benchmark.
Therefore, some freight forwarders and cargo owners do not buy into this action by the shipping company. In their opinion, shipping companies have pushed freight rates to high levels, and the suspension of price increases does not affect their profits.
Many export traders bluntly stated that the current maritime market is simply a chaotic market, and prices have changed a lot. Affected by this, many freight forwarding companies cannot provide accurate shipment prices every day.
garlic exports are on the rise. How long can it last?
During this period, due to the domestic market, the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day stockings need to be prepared, and market distributors are still very enthusiastic about getting goods. Some foreign customers have temporarily failed to deliver due to high freight costs in the first half of the year. During this period, concentrated shipments have begun to occur.
So, we see that in August, the domestic garlic export volume rose sharply to 215,350 tons, and the export volume increased by 22.2% year-on-year.
In addition, as various garlic producing areas have entered the autumn busy farming season one after another, and garlic processing and packaging labor is tight, some customers choose to ship in August to avoid shipments during the busy farming seasons in September and October.
Judging from the current data in September, the domestic garlic export volume is about 80,000 tons.It is estimated that the export volume of garlic will be around 120,000-140,000 tons throughout September. This number may drop slightly compared with the same period last year.
The garlic that is now out of stock is mostly old garlic and freshly preserved garlic. The garlic stored in the new season of this year is very small.
Old garlic mainly benefits from price advantages. The current selling price of old garlic last year is mostly around 2.1-2.2 yuan/jin. Compared with this year's garlic purchase price, the price advantage is still very obvious.
hedging garlic, because when garlic storage, the futures price of electronic disks is about 6,000 yuan/ton, while now the price of electronic disks is only about 4,800 yuan/ton. Many hedging products have already made quite profits.
Since the price of garlic when it was purchased and stored was not significantly lower than the current spot garlic, the price drop was still relatively powerful for this part of hedging garlic.
In the past two days, the main garlic production areas of all garlic have been affected by rainfall, and the market for cold storage has stabilized. The volume of goods for sale in the warehouse has increased slightly, and the demand-side procurement is average. Jinxiang production areas have not been easy to organize the counterpart new garlic in the warehouse, and the activity of old garlic trading has increased partially.
In-store trading activity in Pizhou, Cangshan and Laiwu production areas is not high, and prices and market conditions are running smoothly. In addition, due to the rainfall, the trading atmosphere of garlic off-site warehouses in Qixian and Zhongmu production areas is light; the supply of processed garlic off-site warehouses in Pizhou production areas is not large, and the price has risen slightly.
It should be noted that the amount of old garlic and hedged garlic accounts for a relatively low proportion compared to the entire garlic inventory. This part of garlic itself has a price advantage, so the general library of garlic can't compete with them in terms of price.
Recently, the supply of goods for sale in the warehouse has increased, and it is precisely these garlic that is increasing its shipment efforts. This also shows that many garlic storage companies have begun to worry about the later trend of garlic. According to previous years' experience, they will have to wait until the end of the year to take action.
at the end:
8 garlic exports rose year-on-year, but the editor believes that this is a seasonal reason, not that the export situation has reversed. It is also necessary to look at the export data in September and October to determine whether it is a reversal?
If the export volume continues to rise in September and October, and the freight freezing price continues, it can basically be determined that the export situation has reached a stage of bottoming out and reversing. Otherwise, it can only be considered a brief rebound.
Sometimes opportunities are just waiting. Pick up your mood and wait slowly. Maybe it is a good choice. What do you think?
or above is only the opinion of Huanghuai Hongdae, for reference only!
If you want to know more about garlic analysis, please pay attention to Huanghuai Hongda and give you a different interpretation!
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