Yesterday, iron ore fluctuated narrowly. Last night, the Federal Reserve announced its September interest rate decision, raising interest rates by 75 basis points as scheduled, to 3.00-3.25%. Commodities are under pressure. Iron ore, as a global variety, accounts for a large prop

US dollar index rose sharply, reaching a high of 111.66 during the session, and finally closed higher, standing at 111; the 10-year US Treasury yield also rose sharply, closing at 3.534%. The yield on the US 2-year Treasury bond exceeded 4%, continuing to hit a new high since 2007. In terms of data, the total number of existing home sales in the United States released yesterday recorded an annualized annualized record of 4.8 million units, the lowest since May 2020.

Federals, the Federal Reserve announced a 75 basis point rate hike, raising the benchmark interest rate to the range of 3.00%-3.25%, and the interest rate level rose to a new high since 2008. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates five times in a row this year, and has raised interest rates by 75 basis points in the last three consecutive times. The Federal Reserve reiterated that it is appropriate to expect continued interest rate hikes. The Commission is highly concerned about inflation risks. Federal Reserve officials expect monetary policy to take a tougher route, and there will be at least a 75 basis point interest rate hike in 2022. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell continued to be tough at a press conference after the meeting, saying he would be firmly committed to reducing inflation and is adjusting policies to a level that is sufficient to limit economic growth. Powell also insisted that the U.S. economy is strong and does not expect to consider selling housing mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the short term.

At present, the Fed's tough attitude shows that precious metals are under great pressure. Therefore, if there is a short-term rise, it will be a better opportunity at high altitudes, but in the internal market, you should pay attention to the impact of exchange rate . (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

Songyang

Investment Consulting Practice Certificate Number: Z0000551

Asphalt

[Traffic Review]

BU12 closed at night at 3734 points (+0.92%).

[Important Information]

In terms of spot, international crude oil fluctuated wide, asphalt plate performance was slightly strong, low-priced resources on the spot side were supported, and overall demand was acceptable. The conversion of asphalt from the Xinhai Large Device in Hebei in North China has led to an increase in resources in the area, but the overall demand for rushing to work is still acceptable, and spot resources are still tight; the supply of refineries in South China is stable, and some refineries implement preferential policies for large orders, the demand for downstream terminals is lukewarm, and transactions are slightly dull. (Longzhong) Currently, Shandong asphalt spot stock is 4230-4520, East China region 4550-4850, and South China region 4750-4900.

refined oil benchmark price: Shandong local refining 92# gasoline-15 to 8749, 0# diesel+44 to 8690.

[Trading Strategy]

Baichuan Yingfu statistics, this week, the asphalt refinery started construction -0.68% to 46.55%, the refinery inventory increased by 0.16% to 30.74%, and the social inventory was -0.98% to 19.39% month-on-month. The discount on forward raw materials has rebounded slightly, and the cost side has driven a slight increase in asphalt prices. BU has significantly discounted spot prices in the long term, reflecting the market's concerns about future supply and demand easing, but the downward space on the market is relatively limited under low valuations. The price of the BU12 contract refers to the wide range of fluctuations in the range of 3600-3900. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

Crude oil

[Taiwan Review]

Crude oil settlement price: WTI2211 contract 82.94 fell 1.00 USD/barrel or 1.20%; Brent2211 contract 89.83 fell 0.79 USD/barrel or 0.90%. SC2211 rose 6.7 to 642.6 yuan/barrel, and rose 3.3 to 645.9 yuan/barrel in the night market. Brent's first-time price spread is -0.30 to 1.03 US dollars per barrel.

[Important Information]

Geographical, at noon yesterday, Russian President Putin released a video speech announcing partial mobilization, and would convene 300,000 reserve soldiers to fight in Ukraine and support the plan to annex parts of Ukraine. This is the first national speech since the Russian-Ukrainian War on February 24. In terms of supply and demand, EIA weekly data showed that as of the week of September 16, U.S. crude oil production remained flat at 12.1 million barrels per day on the month-on-month, commercial inventories increased by 1141 thousand barrels, and strategic inventories fell by 6899 thousand barrels. Gasoline inventory increased by 1570,000 barrels month-on-month, and consumption decreased by 172,000 barrels per day to 8,322,000 barrels per day, and the consumption level fell below the same period in 2020. Diesel inventory increased by 1230,000 barrels, and consumption increased by 277,000 barrels per day month-on-month, and the consumption level was also lower than the same period in 2020.Consumption of aviation coal fell by 244,000 barrels per day month-on-month, slightly lower than the same period last year but higher than the 2020 level.

Macro, overnight, the Federal Reserve announced its third consecutive rate hike of 75 basis points, and hinted that it is likely to make at least another rate hike of the same extent this year. The Federal Reserve raised its target range of policy interest rates to 3.00%-3.25%, the highest level since 2008. The latest forecast shows that by the end of this year, the target range of policy interest rates is expected to rise to 4.25%-4.50%, and then reach a peak of 4.50%-4.75% in 2023. Fed Chairman Powell vowed to "stay persistently" to fight inflation until the pace of price increases slowed significantly. He spoke out about the "pain" of the future, mentioning the rising unemployment rate and specifically noting that the real estate market may need to be "corrected".

[Trading Strategy]

The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike is implemented, and the medium-term economic downturn has led to weakening oil demand remains unchanged. Macro and demand are negative for oil prices, but the supply side is still relatively fragile. In the case of a stalemate in the Russian-Ukraine war, the EU oil embargo is implemented as scheduled at the end of the year. There is a possibility of tightening crude oil supply, and oil prices will remain wide fluctuations in the short term. Brent's main force refers to the 85-100 US dollar range. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

Fuel oil

[Taiwan Review]

FU01 contract closed at night at 2748 points (-1.54%).

LU11 contract closed 4555 points (-0.96%) at night.

Singapore market, the night market Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil swap month-on-month difference strengthened to US$18.5/ton, the high-sulfur monthly difference stabilized at -1 US$1/ton, the domestic and foreign price difference of US$15.4/ton, and the domestic and foreign price difference of LU11 is 0 US$0/ton.

[Important Information]

Longzhong Information report: The supply of high-sulfur fuel oil arbitrage entering Asia remains basically stable. Russia continues to look for sales in the Asian fuel oil market and suppresses the cracking spread of high-sulfur fuel oil in Asia. The low-sulfur fuel oil market remained basically stable, with the spot price spread and cracking price spreads of marine fuel oils containing 0.5% sulfur. In the Singapore fuel oil spot market, Tok Company purchased 40,000 tons of 380cst high-sulfur fuel oil loaded from Thai oil company PTT, which was loaded from October 5-9, at a price of US$3.00 lower than the Singapore quotation.

[Trading Strategy]

Singapore's high sulfur has become a global price depression. After the peak power generation season ends, supply and demand are relatively loose, while low sulfur has support for the peak consumption season in the long term. The price difference between high and low sulfur in the foreign market is running strongly. The internal LU follows the domestic pricing logic. When the export quota is surplus, the internal and external price difference of LU is significantly lower than the internal and external price difference of FU. Under the stable pattern of crude oil, fuel oil fluctuates unilaterally and wide-rangely, and low sulfur is expected to remain stronger than high sulfur in the medium term. (The above views are for reference only and will not be used as a basis for entering the market)

pulp

[Review of the previous day]

Futures Market: Slightly organized. The main SP contract of 01 closed at 6814 points, up +20 points or +0.29%.

Spot Wood pulp Market: The imported broadleaf pulp market in Shandong Province can be circulated with scarce sources of goods, and the market is mainly composed of narrow consolidation, and the operators deliver the preliminary contract. It is reported that the market tax-inclusive reference price: bird 6,650 yuan/ton, goldfish 6,700 yuan/ton. The spot market price of imported needle slurry was consolidated at a high level, and the market fluctuated in a narrow range. Market tax-inclusive reference quotation: Silver Star 7500-7550 yuan/ton, Kellip 7650 yuan/ton, Beimu 7700 yuan/ton. ( Zhuochuang Information )

Spot packaging paper: The white card paper market in Guangdong has not fluctuated much. Local cash is delivered to tax-inclusive reference price: 250-400g full-gram flat white cardboard 5200-5400 yuan/ton. The market price range of whiteboard in the southwest region fluctuates and consolidates. The current market price of cash withdrawals for whiteboard papers in the southwest region including tax: 3900-4000 yuan/ton of A-grade whiteboard papers; 3650-3750 yuan/ton of B-grade whiteboard papers.(Zhuochuang Information)

[Important Information]

quoted ANN Vietnam News: Vietnam's domestic papermaking industry has achieved good growth in the past five years, and it is expected to maintain this momentum by 2025 driven by demand for toilet paper and wrapping paper. Vietnam has successfully become an exporter of various papers from a country with import demand, especially packaging paper. Exports grew by more than +65% each year between 2015 and 2020. According to data from authoritative institutions, Vietnam's exports in the first seven months of this year were US$1.13 billion, a year-on-year increase of +21.6%. Among them, the United States, China, Cambodia , and Indonesia are the largest markets. Over the past 10 years, the economy has faced many difficulties. Geopolitical tensions and the COVID-19 pandemic have disrupted supply chains and caused high inflation, but Vietnam's economy is still developing well, including paper. Paper production has grown by more than +25% per year.

[Trading Strategy]

In August, Japan's imported energy (oil, coal, natural gas) comprehensive price index closed at 337.1 points, up +109.1% year-on-year, with the previous value of +130.9%, and the marginal decline. The inventory of domestic white card paper factories closed at 839,000 tons, a year-on-year accumulation of inventory + 124.8%, and a year-on-year accumulation of inventory for the fifth consecutive week. The main SP01 contract should set a stop loss at the recent high of 6890 points. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

natural rubber and No. 20 rubber

[Review of the previous day]

RU Related: RU main force 01 contract closed at 13225 points, down -5 points or -0.04%; Japan's main force 02 contract closed at 226.3 points, down -1.2 points or -0.53%. As of 12:00 the day before yesterday, Yunnan WF closed at 12,000-12,250 yuan/ton, the second landmark closed at 11,000-11,100 yuan/ton, Thailand cigarette sheets closed at 14,500-14,650 yuan/ton, and Vietnam 3L closed at 1160-11,850 yuan/ton.

NR related: NR main 11 contract closed at 9810 points, up +85 points or +0.67%; Singapore's main TF12 contract closed at 133.4 points, up +1.0 points or +0.76%. As of 18:00 the day before yesterday, the market price of USD glue in Qingdao bonded zone was narrowly adjusted to USD 2.5-5/ton. The cargo of cigarettes closed at US$1550-1580/ton, the cargo of Thai standard spot or near-port closed at US$1380-1410/ton, the cargo of printed spot or near-port closed at US$1350-1360/ton, and the cargo of Thai mixed spot or near-port closed at US$1380-1400/ton.

synthetic glue related: North China butadiene 1502 quoted 11,700 yuan/ton. Sinopec's North China Qilu Shunding price was 12,600 yuan/ton. The price of East China butadiene is 9100-9200 yuan/ton.

[Important Information]

quoted QinRex data: From January to July, Vietnam exported a total of 427,000 tons of natural rubber, an increase of 14% year-on-year from 375,000 tons last year. Among them, the standard glue exported 260,000 tons, an increase of 6.6% year-on-year; the cigarette glue exported was 40,000 tons, an increase of 2.6% year-on-year; the latex exports were 123,000 tons, an increase of 38% year-on-year. From January to July, Vietnam exported a total of 556,000 tons of mixed rubber, a year-on-year decrease of -1.1% from last year's 562,000 tons. Among them, SVR3L mixed exports were 117,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of -33%; SVR10 mixed exports were 432,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of +13%; RSS3 mixed exports were 8,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of -0.5%. From January to July, Vietnam's natural rubber exported to China a total of 78,000 tons, an increase of 37% year-on-year from 57,000 tons last year. From January to July, Vietnam's mixed rubber exports to China totaled 556,000 tons, an increase of 0.7% year-on-year from 552,000 tons last year. Among them, SVR3L mixed exports were 117,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of -31%; SVR10 mixed exports were 432,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of +15%; RSS3 mixed exports were 7,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of -2%. Overall, from January to July, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed glue were 983,000 tons, an increase of 4.9% year-on-year from 937,000 tons last year; a total export of 634,000 tons in China, an increase of 4.1% year-on-year from 609,000 tons last year. .

[Trading Strategy]

Synthetic Gel, butadiene prices continue to fall, and trading is average. As of July, Japan's production of benzene and benzene closed at 63,900 tons, an increase of 34.0% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of marginal production increase. As of the week ending September 13: Domestic all-steel tire finished product inventory closed for 46 days, and semi-steel tire finished product inventory closed for 45 days, with an overall cumulative inventory of +12.3%, which is the fourth consecutive weekly marginal cumulative inventory.The RU01 contract is waiting and see, and the call option is sold at 13,500 points above and holds ; the NR11 contract is suitable for waiting and see, and pay attention to the pressure at the early low of 9,880 points. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

Plastic

Trade review:

Plastic fluctuated yesterday, L2301 closed at 8076 points, up 0.39% or 31 points, and night trading L2301 closed at 8038 points, down 0.47% or 38 points.

Spot market:

Yesterday, the mainstream spot price in East China was 8,300 yuan/ton, stable. The market price in North China is 8,300 yuan/ton, which is stable. The mainstream price in the South China market is 8,500 yuan/ton, -50 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of the US dollar market is 8,450 yuan/ton, which is stable. polyethylene spot market prices mostly fell, and traders actively shipped.

Important information:

1) Today's inventory level of major manufacturers was 660,000 tons, a decrease of 2.22% from the previous working day, with inventory of approximately 835,000 tons in the same period last year.

2) The Federal Reserve announced its September interest rate resolution, raising interest rates by 75 basis points as scheduled, to 3.00-3.25%. Economic expectations show that interest rate hikes may further accelerate in the future. The Fed's FOMC September dot chart shows that the Fed expects to raise interest rates by at least 75 basis points in 2022 and will not cut interest rates until 2024.

Trading strategy:

PE accumulated inventory last week, and the current inventory level is relatively low in the same period, which provides support for the market. The start of PE last week did not change much, but it has improved significantly compared with the previous period. Imports to the port are expected to accelerate after the typhoon, and the start of downstream construction continues to rebound marginally, but it is still weak, and short-term prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. In the medium term, construction starts rebound, imports increase, exports decline, and there is still a clear pattern of storm and short selling at highs. (The views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for trading)

methanol

[Trading Strategy]

Yesterday, two production safety accidents occurred in Shanxi, local safety supervision continued to become stricter, and pit price continued to rise; downstream chemical companies in Inner Mongolia region The demand for industry procurement is positive, port prices are high, pit prices are running firmly, Yulin region continues to rise, downstream procurement is difficult, coal prices in pit areas are mainly strong in the short term, and methanol production costs are strong. Yesterday, as the spot price of methanol in the northwest region continued to fall, coal-to-methanol in Inner Mongolia lost 220 yuan/ton, and northern Shaanxi and Jinzhong lost more than 390 yuan/ton. The expansion of production losses may inhibit the recovery of the operating rate. However, a 2 million tons new device in Inner Mongolia will be put into production this month, putting considerable pressure on market supply. In terms of demand, traditional demand has entered the peak season, and the operating rate continues to rebound, which has certain support for methanol; MTO changes little. As several sets of devices in the mainland of the port restarted, the purchase volume of raw materials rebounded month-on-month, but as methanol prices continue to rise, traditional demand and MTO profits have been greatly compressed again. It is rumored that several MTO devices are facing parking risks in the port area. In terms of inventory, as the operating rate continues to rebound, the operating rate of mainland enterprises has increased slightly, and the inventory of enterprises has accumulated slightly. The expectation of import reduction in port areas has gradually turned into reality. In addition, last week, typhoon affects import unloading, and inventory continues to be destocked. In terms of imports, there are more parking devices in Iran area, but recent market news says there is a recovery expectation, which is expected to have a significant impact on imports in October. Overall, the current methanol regional market has further differentiated, the supply pressure in the mainland has gradually increased, and the upward space is limited. Yesterday, the bidding price of mainstream manufacturers in Inner Mongolia continued to fall to 2360-2400 yuan/ton, and the bidding price of mainstream manufacturers in northern Shaanxi has dropped to 2360 yuan/ton. The decline space has been opened. However, the support for coal at the raw material side is strong, and there is a certain support below. It is not advisable to be too bearish on the mainland for the time being; the supply and demand in the port area are basically balanced with inventory deduction, and the import reduction brought about by Iran's production cuts support the strong port price, but the profit on the olefin side has been greatly compressed. There were rumors in the market that a certain MTO device was stopped at a loss, and it was still treated with a volatile idea.

[Traffic Review]

Last night, methanol futures fluctuated and strengthened, and finally closed at 2712 (+34/+1.27%).

[Spot Market]

production location, the southern line of Inner Mongolia is quoting 2,400 yuan/ton, and the northern line of Inner Mongolia is quoting 2,400 yuan/ton. The price of Guanzhong area is 2,560 yuan/ton, the price of northern Shaanxi area is 2,340 yuan/ton, the price of Shanxi area is 2,510 yuan/ton, and the price of Henan area is 2,700 yuan/ton.

consumption place, Shandong regional market price is 2,780 yuan/ton, Shandong quotation is 2,700 yuan/ton, and Hebei quotation is 2,700 yuan/ton.

Southwest region, the market price in Sichuan and Chongqing is 2,500 yuan/ton, and the price in Yunnan and Guizhou is 2,800 yuan/ton.

port, futures trading rose, Taicang regional market price is 2,750 yuan/ton, Ningbo region price is 2,820 yuan/ton, and Guangzhou region price is 2,730 yuan/ton.

[Important Information]

This week (20220920), the weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region (excluding about length) totaled 14,700 tons (14,700 tons), a decrease of 14,300 tons (14,300 tons) from the previous statistical day, and -49.31%.

urea

[Price Information]

Yesterday, the main contract of urea futures closed at 2459 yuan/ton, +2.63%, with a position of 128,900 lots, +6,700 lots compared with the previous day, with a transaction of 146,200 lots, and the factory warehouse basis was -39 yuan/ton. In the spot market, Shandong Xiaozhong Granules mainstream ex-factory 2490-2550 yuan/ton, and Linyi pick-up price is around 2510-2520 yuan/ton. Shanxi Jincheng small particles for the reference price of quotations of 2410-2430 yuan/ton, and Yuncheng small particles for 2360 yuan/ton. The factory reference for Henan small particles is 2430-2450 yuan/ton, and the mainstream factory reference for Hebei small particles is around 2500 yuan/ton.

[Basic Overview]

Yesterday, the spot market in mainstream regions fluctuated narrowly, low-end price transactions showed signs of warming up, and factory quotations slowed down. Coal prices have continued to strengthen recently, chemical coal supply has become tighter, and urea cost support has continued to move upward. The production end has been temporarily stable, and daily output has maintained a high year-on-year growth, but some factories in Shanxi have expected environmentally friendly production cuts in October. According to Longzhong's caliber, domestic urea enterprises' inventory this week was 681,900 tons, up 42,800 tons month-on-month and 385,600 tons year-on-year; yesterday's daily urea production was 155,400 tons, up 22,000 tons month-on-month and 22,000 tons year-on-year.

[Trading Strategy]

Yesterday, the market opened higher and then fluctuated upward, and the market returned to the rising state. The cost side may be the main driver of the strengthening of the market. In the short term, we believe that futures premiums may further promote the warming of spot transactions. In addition, as autumn fertilizer approaches and cost support, the overall market may show a moderate upward trend. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

thermal coal

[Trading Strategy]

Yesterday, two production safety accidents occurred in Shanxi, local safety supervision continued to be stricter, and pit prices continued to rise; downstream chemical companies in Inner Mongolia region actively demanded, port prices were high, pit prices were firmly running, Yulin region continued to rise, downstream procurement was difficult, and coal prices in the pit areas were mainly firm in the short term. On the demand side, on the coal side, the daily consumption of coastal power plants continued to decline. Judging from the number of ships and ships in the port anchorage, the market coal procurement intensity further weakened this week; on the non-electric side, the load on chemicals started gradually increased, and the use of methanol and urea for coal is strong, supporting the price of pits to continue to be strong. In terms of inventory, port inventory, as the port coal prices rise rapidly, curbs the release of some demand. At the same time, power plant inventory rebounds rapidly, and the enthusiasm for power plants to transport has decreased. The port transfer has dropped sharply to around 1.1 million tons month-on-month. At the same time, as the Daqin Line's transportation volume stabilized at 1.3 million tons, inventory has been passively increased to 21 million tons. However, with the autumn inspection and peak season of Daqin Line, the port coal price continues to be strong, and the quotation of 5500K rose to more than 1,480 yuan/ton. Power plant inventory, as daily consumption declines, power plant inventory continues to rebound, and the number of days available continues to increase. Under the long-term cooperation guaranteed supply, inventory is expected to continue to rise. Overall, with the arrival of the off-season for power coal demand, it is expected that the port supply pressure may be eased, but the structural contradictions in inventory and the autumn inspection of the Daqin line in the later period, the decline window of market coal prices narrowed.Although the supply in Kengkou area is normal, it is mostly mainly focused on ensuring supply. The market coal volume is tight and chemical demand has entered the peak season, supporting the strong price of Kengkou. However, the frequent occurrence of policies has a great impact on coal price fluctuations, and we focus on policy regulation (the above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entry into the market).

[Spot Market]

21st, the coal prices in the origin remained firm, the spot coal resources in the port market were tight, and some traders reported that the railway plan gave priority to long-term contracts, and the market was difficult to approve cars. Some cargo pallets were forced to accumulate on the platform, and the port quotation remained high. The market quotation of 5500 knots was 1460-1490 yuan/ton, and some quotations reached 1500 yuan/ton, the market quotation of 5000 knots was 1300-1330 yuan/ton, and the quotation of 4500 knots was 1105 yuan/ton.

The current market for producing 5,800 tobacco coal in Shaanxi Province, the ex-factory price of 5,800 tobacco coal with tax included 1,180-1,280 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of 6,200 tobacco coal with tax included 1,310-1,440 yuan/ton. The current ex-factory price of 5,500 calories in tobacco coal in Inner Mongolia includes taxes of 950-990 yuan/ton.

[Important Information]

From January to August, the whole society's electricity consumption was 5783.9 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%. Among them, the whole society's electricity consumption in August was 852 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%.

PVC

Market review:

PVC fluctuated and weakened yesterday, V2301 closed at 6087 points, down 0.75% or 46 points, and night trading V2301 closed at 6092 points, up 0.08% or 5 points.

Spot market:

The domestic PVC market price continued to decline yesterday. The price of East China Calcium Trace is low as the range of 6250-6350. The center of gravity of the real-time transaction is still low. The sales of ethylene method are under pressure, and the price is partially lowered, and the mainstream delivery is lowered to 6500-6600.

Important information:

1) Yesterday, the domestic calcium carbide market price was mainly stable, the mainstream ex-factory price in Wuhai area was 3,450 yuan/ton, the market lancharcoal increased and the sound of rising lancharcoal was high, calcium carbide manufacturers suffered losses due to cost pressure, and some calcium carbide companies showed signs of lowering loads or shutting down furnace maintenance.

2) The Federal Reserve announced its September interest rate resolution, raising interest rates by 75 basis points as scheduled, to 3.00-3.25%. Economic expectations show that interest rate hikes may further accelerate in the future. The Fed's FOMC September dot chart shows that the Fed expects to raise interest rates by at least 75 basis points in 2022 and will not cut interest rates until 2024.

Trading strategy:

PVC starts to recover rapidly last week, and the overall start of construction rose by 5.2 percentage points to 77.6%. Upstream inventory was re-accumulated last week after destocking for four consecutive weeks. Social inventory accumulated inventory for three consecutive weeks. The marginal start of downstream products continued to rebound, but it was still weak year-on-year. The accumulation of inventory was mainly due to the rapid recovery of upstream production start. Foreign market prices continued to fall, new export signings fell to low levels, and overall supply and demand were not optimistic. However, due to the expansion of calcium carbide losses, PVC purchase of calcium carbide method profits, and chlor-alkali integrated profit losses, PVC valuation is not high, and the downward space is relatively limited, and short-term prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. In the medium term, PVC is still in a surplus pattern and short selling at highs. (The views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for trading)

PTA

[Traffic Review]

Yesterday, the main contract of PTA2301 futures fluctuated and consolidated, closing at 5610 (+70/+1.26%) on the day's trading session and closing at 5538 (-72/-1.3%) on the night trading session. In terms of spot, the basis for the main port was stronger, with the basis for the main port being 01+975, and the MOPJ in October was trading at US$682/ton CFR at the end of the trading session; the PX was valuated at US$1079/ton CFR, up US$26 from yesterday.

[Important Information]

1. From September 1 to 20, South Korea's total PX exports were 309,000 tons, of which 279,000 tons were exported to China. South Korea's total PX exports in August were 408,000 tons, of which 350,000 tons were exported to China.

2. Hainan Refining and Chemical's 660,000 tons PX device was stopped for maintenance due to a malfunction and the restart is to be determined. Another 1 million tons PX device is expected to be stopped for maintenance after the restart of this device. The maintenance time is expected to be about 2 months.

3. Yesterday, the production and sales of polyester silk in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were relatively weak. By around 3:30 pm, the average production and sales of polyester-spinning factories were 43%.

[Trading Strategy]

In terms of supply, PTA has slightly alleviated the recovery in processing fees and the shortage of raw materials. In the downstream, the losses of polyester filaments and staple fibers have expanded. Yesterday, some polyester silk factories increased their discounts, and the overall production and sales have been limited. In the medium term, the tight supply of TA will be greatly alleviated after the new PX device is put into production, and the short-term situation of strong near-term far weak still exists. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

PP

Market review:

PP showed a volatile trend yesterday, PP2301 closed at 7915 points, up 0.24% or 19 points, and night trading PP2301 closed at 7905 points, down 0.13% or 10 points.

Spot market:

Yesterday, the mainstream price of wire drawing in the East China spot market was 8,200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from yesterday; the mainstream price in the North China market was 8,070 yuan/ton, down the same as yesterday; the mainstream price in the South China market was 8,280 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from yesterday, and the US market closed at 970 US dollars/ton, down the same as yesterday.

Important information:

1) Today's inventory level of major manufacturers was 660,000 tons, a decrease of 2.22% from the previous working day, with inventory of approximately 835,000 tons in the same period last year.

2) The Federal Reserve announced its September interest rate resolution, raising interest rates by 75 basis points as scheduled, to 3.00-3.25%. Economic expectations show that interest rate hikes may further accelerate in the future. The Fed's FOMC September dot chart shows that the Fed expects to raise interest rates by at least 75 basis points in 2022 and will not cut interest rates until 2024.

Trading strategy:

PP accumulated inventory last week, and the current inventory level was relatively low in the same period, which has support for the market. The start of PP construction last week did not change much, but it has improved significantly compared with the previous period. Imports to the port are expected to accelerate after the typhoon, and the start of downstream construction continues to rebound marginally, but it is still weak, and short-term prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. In the medium term, construction starts rebound, imports increase, exports decline, and there is still a clear pattern of storm and short selling at highs. (The views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for trading)

PF

[Taiwan Review]

Yesterday, the main contract of PF2211 fluctuated and consolidated, closing at 7488 (+140/+1.91%) on the day's trading session, closing at 7418 (-70/-0.9%) on the night trading session. The overall price in terms of spot prices was stable, and the center of transactions rose. The center of gravity of semi-gloss 1.4D direct textile and polyester short Jiangsu and Zhejiang negotiations were 7650-7900 yuan/ton, the mainstream of Fujian is around 7900 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of Shandong and Hebei is 7700-8000 yuan/ton.

[Important Information]

Yesterday, some preferential sales of polyester silk in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased. By around 3:30 pm, the average estimated was below 60%. The average production and sales of straight-spinning and polyester factory was 51%.

[Trading Strategy]

Short fiber production enterprises continue to lose money. With the improvement of orders since September, the downstream of short fiber production has started to increase, and the inventory of finished products has declined. However, due to poor profits and slow inventory reduction in orders as compared with previous years, the supply and demand of short fibers are not driven upward, and the inventory of raw materials in polyester mills and traders are relatively low. They have the intention to replenish goods in the near future, and processing fees may be repaired upward as raw materials weaken. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

MEG

[Traffic Review]

Yesterday, the main contract of EG2301 futures fluctuated and consolidated, closing at 4398 (-57/-1.31%) on the day's trading session and closing at 4352 (-46/-1%) on the night trading session. The basis for spot is weak. Yesterday, the MEG spot base 01 contract discount was around 80-95 yuan/ton, and the futures basis for October was 45-50 yuan/ton.

[Important Information]

Dalian Hengli's 1.8 million tons/year MEG device was previously passively stopped due to ethylene cold box failure in mid-September. The equipment repair is currently smooth. It is expected to restart around the end of this weekend and early next week. The 300,000 tons/year synthesis gas glycol device in Weihua, Shaanxi will be restarted recently. It is expected that the equipment will be discharged around the end of September. The device was previously stopped for maintenance at the end of August. The 330,000 tons/year MEG device in India's IOC will be stopped for technical transformation in the near future, and the parking is expected to remain until December; the 280,000 tons/year MEG device in Sasol, the United States will be stopped for maintenance in early October as planned, and the maintenance time is expected to be around one month.

[Trading Strategy]

With the restart of the maintenance device and the new device in Weihua, Shaanxi, the supply of ethylene glycol has gradually rebounded, and the downstream polyester has low profits and high inventory has been limited in the start of construction, and ethylene glycol has accumulated inventory pressure in the fourth quarter. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

EB

[Traffic Review]

Yesterday, the main contract of EB22010 futures fluctuated and consolidated, closing at 9155 (+12/+0.13%) on the day's trading session and closing at 9119 (-36/-0.4%) on the night trading session. In terms of spot, the spot self-picking price of Jiangsu styrene was 9650-9800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton month-on-month, and the price of styrene was 9650 yuan/ton in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei market was 9650 yuan/ton, a constant month-on-month, and the price of styrene was 9500-9600 yuan/ton in South China market was 500-9600 yuan/ton month-on-month, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The average spot price of East China pure benzene was 7875 yuan/ton, a constant month-on-month.

[Important Information]

According to Zhuochuang Information statistics, as of September 21, 2022, the trade volume of pure benzene ports in East China was 62,500 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from September 14, a month-on-month decrease of 14.97%, and an increase of 41.40% year-on-year. The total inventory of styrene East China main ports decreased by 40,000 tons at 41,500 tons. The spot commodity volume in the main port of East China decreased by 1,800 tons to 25,600 tons, and the total inventory of styrene manufacturers decreased by 6,400 tons to 126,000 tons compared with last week.

[Trading Strategy]

Supply, the 500,000 tons/year styrene device in Dagu, Tianjin was stopped near the 50-day parking styrene device in Dagu, Tianjin was scheduled to be parked for about 50 days. Tianjin Bohua's 450,000 tons/year styrene device was suspended on August 13, and qualified products were produced nearby on September 16, and currently normal production was normal. In late this month, Sinochem Quanzhou 450,000 tons, Ningbo Daxie 280,000 tons, Oriental Petrochemical's 120,000 tons are planned to restart, and the overall supply is increased. In terms of demand, it is still acceptable to prepare for the solar terms and prices fluctuate in the short term. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)