Introduction: Deep into the hinterland of energy storage increment.
Previously, the news that Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH) entered the component link with a bidding price of 5 cents lower, which once collapsed the photovoltaic sector, and A-share market again showed three major negative news last week, pulling the photovoltaic and energy storage sectors together.
First, market rumors EU is formulating an emergency plan to adjust the correlation mechanism between electricity prices and natural gas prices, and carry out long-term "electricity market structural reform".
Affected by this news, natural gas prices/real-time electricity prices in some European countries fell sharply in a short period of time, allowing the market to follow the framework of "Photovoltaic energy storage installed hedge against high electricity prices" to escape.
Secondly, the US International Trade Commission (ITC) accepted an application from the US Ampt company to initiate a 337 investigation into the patent infringe of the photovoltaic optimizer, inverter and related components sold by SolarEdge (an Israeli company) in the United States, causing the market to worry whether the A-share company's overseas plan will be hindered.
Third, the rumors of inverter data falsification have caused the market to abandon related companies whose valuations are already quite high. Even though the leader of A-share inverter issued an announcement in the evening to respond to this remarks, the stock price generally fell by about 3% the next day.
The above three points have made new progress in the past two days. For example, on September 2 local time, Gazprom, a natural gas giant called "Gaso Russia", announced that its important natural gas pipeline to Europe, Nord Stream 1, cannot resume gas delivery as planned.
and domestic inverter companies export only string and micro-inverter products in the United States, and have obtained Ampt technology authorization outside the United States to accelerate market share replacement. In addition, the statistical caliber issues such as volume and price have made it impossible to get a glimpse of the export data of customs inverters.
However, the two high-level tracks of photovoltaic energy storage are in a panic, and it is an indisputable fact that they will be under pressure when they encounter negative news.
In this case, the entire market may still be able to choose track stocks to meet the position configuration requirements under the premise that the economic recovery is repeatedly affected by the epidemic and the policy is not stimulated by much force.
still has subdivided fields, which have not been greatly hyped, the industry logic is relatively "hard core", and there is indeed room for incremental performance?
Perhaps energy storage temperature control is a noteworthy sub-field.
temperature-controlled seeds germinate in energy storage
thermostat refers to a series of automatic control components that physically deform inside the switch according to the temperature changes in the working environment, thereby producing certain special effects and generating conduction or disconnection actions.
or through a temperature protector, the temperature controller , and the temperature controller issues a switch command to control the operation of the device to achieve ideal temperature and energy-saving effects.
In fact, before the large-scale application of temperature control in the energy storage field, the largest market share was the IDC data center. The core of the demand in the IDC temperature control industry comes from the strict restrictions on energy consumption levels in the future.
The indicator for measuring the energy efficiency of a data center is PUE, that is, how much electricity is truly applied to IT equipment in the total electricity provided to the data center. By dividing the total power consumption of the data center by the power consumption of the IT device, the PUE value is obtained. The closer
PUE is to 1, the lower the energy consumption of non-IT devices such as refrigeration equipment and power distribution equipment, the better the energy efficiency level of the data center.
According to the policies promulgated in 2021, by the end of 2023, the PUE of newly built large and above data centers should be reduced to below 1.3, and strive to achieve below 1.25 in severe cold and cold areas. In 2019, more than 80% of China's IDC data center PUE values were between 1.5-2.0, which was a significant gap from the target level.
There are two levels of temperature control according to the size and accuracy of the temperature.
is first of all, precision temperature control. The working equipment can withstand a small temperature range, and the temperature control accuracy requirements are high. Usually, air conditioning equipment needs to cool down. Typical application scenarios include IDC computer room (the working temperature is required to be controlled at 45 degrees-65 degrees), communication base station, energy storage (the target temperature is below 35 degrees), etc.
is secondly non-precision temperature control. Because the working equipment can withstand a wide temperature range and the temperature control system is relatively simple, it does not need to be used with air conditioners. Typical application scenarios such as ultra-high voltage DC transmission thermal management, the temperature requirement is below 50 degrees.
For precision temperature control, the core equipment that determines the temperature control and PUE value is a dedicated air conditioner. This is also the reason why the temperature control track, especially dedicated air conditioning companies, links the rise and fall of with the energy storage sector in the A-share market.
represents companies such as Fengfei Co., Ltd. (300990.SZ), Shenling Environment (301018.SZ), Yingweike (002837.SZ), etc.
has sorted out the market prospects of temperature control. Different technical routes and product technical indicators will also determine how big a cake each company can get in the future. This is also an important reference for downstream major customers to verify products.
currently has two mainstream methods, namely air cooling and liquid cooling. Because the principle of temperature control is to exchange heat through specific substances, air cooling means heat exchange through air, which is simply understood to be equivalent to the principle of air conditioning ventilation, while water cooling and liquid cooling are heat absorption exchange through liquids such as water, ethylene glycol , fluoride , etc.
But the heat dissipation efficiency of air cooling and liquid cooling is not the same order of magnitude at all. Because the thermal conductivity is completely different, the thermal conductivity of coolant is dozens of times that of air, which also determines that the air-cooling system cannot match liquid cooling in terms of maximum heat dissipation ability.
Therefore, in the fields of IDC data centers and energy storage, liquid cooling is the most important future technical direction.
As mentioned above, the working temperature range of the IDC data center is between 45 degrees and 65 degrees. There are clear energy consumption requirements in this application scenario, namely the PUE indicator.
The simple air cooling solution does not meet the industry's needs to reduce PUE in terms of heat dissipation efficiency and energy consumption. Therefore, engineering improvement solutions such as indirect evaporative cooling technology and server liquid cooling technology are the main technical solutions at present. The working temperature of
energy storage needs to be controlled below 35 degrees. Although there are no clear energy consumption requirements at present, air cooling is still the mainstream solution at present, because air cooling has great space requirements and is not conducive to the improvement of battery density. Therefore, the future of energy storage will also develop towards liquid cooling.
In summary, the three representative companies in the temperature control field, whoever can break through the siege of liquid-cooled products and get verification from major customers such as Huawei , CATL (300750.SZ), Sungrow Power (300274.SZ), Paineng Technology (688063.SZ), whoever will win more living space in the energy storage and temperature control field.
Can Shenling Environment break through the siege?
Among these temperature control companies, Shenling Environment, as a Huawei temperature control supplier, has attracted particularly attention from the market.
The company achieved revenue of 1.08 billion yuan in the first half of 2022, a year-on-year growth rate of 59.57%; and achieved net profit attributable to shareholders of 103 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60.41%. In terms of a single quarter, the revenue in the second quarter was 650 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35%; the net profit was 66 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11%.
points business, the company has made breakthroughs and progress in all business segments, among which liquid-cooled products have achieved more than doubled growth during the same period.
(1) Data service product revenue was RMB 263 million, an increase of 42% year-on-year. At the same time, other products such as engineering services and materials in this business field increased by about 386.22%, and the overall business in the data service field increased by about 72.61%.
The company's liquid cooling temperature control system revenue increased by 110% year-on-year, achieving large-scale delivery of overseas large-scale liquid cooling customers. In this part of revenue, in addition to the contribution from Huawei, revenue increased by 80% year-on-year;
(2) industrial air conditioning revenue increased by 51% year-on-year, mainly benefiting from ultra-high voltage power and other products. According to the company's announcement, during the reporting period, the company continued to promote the customized joint research and development of energy storage systems and major customers;
(3) The overall revenue of the special air conditioner sector increased by more than 99% year-on-year, of which, the revenue of special air conditioners increased by 13.18% year-on-year, and other products such as engineering services and materials increased by about 853.68%, mainly benefiting from the implementation of new scenarios such as hospital solutions.
As the main supplier of Huawei temperature control, although the company has not disclosed specific business data and product performance parameters, it can be inferred that Shenling Environment's product capabilities are still good.
However, with the temperature control product coefficient and technical details released by Sungrow Power, it can still be seen that the future technical barriers of temperature control companies still need to be broken through, which is also the primary homework of Shenling Environment.
As mentioned above, the control of temperature control accuracy is the main technical barrier.
Take a 3MWh energy storage system as an example. If a 280Ah battery cell is used, it requires more than 3,000 battery cells in total. The temperature difference of each battery cell must be controlled within a certain range. Some logic algorithms are involved, which are also a place to test the technical development capabilities of various companies.
. Among the new energy storage temperature control products announced by Sungrow Power, in terms of aspects, liquid cooling temperature control can control the temperature difference within 2.5°C, and use power electronics technology to achieve temperature uniformity and current uniformity.
Through heating simulation, using multi-stage variable runners and microchannel current sharing design, the flow rate and flow rate of coolant are reasonably designed, and the size of the pipe diameter is strictly controlled. The life of the battery in the whole life cycle is expected to increase by two years.
is followed by cluster-level management. It obtains millions of large data through 4D sensing technology, uses progressive sleep algorithm, and intelligently adjusts heat dissipation energy efficiency in combination with operating conditions, which can reduce auxiliary power consumption by more than 40%.
Compared with traditional cooling systems, the full life cycle of 100 MWh can save auxiliary power consumption by 14 million kWh.
finally realizes millisecond current equalization and intelligently adjusts the charge and discharge at each place. The temperature control product of Sungrow Power Supply is to observe the real-time status of each cluster of batteries, intelligently adjust the charging and discharging power of each cluster, maximize energy and efficiency tracking, perform differentiated power distribution, and exert the potential of each cluster of batteries, thereby increasing the system cycle efficiency (RTE) by 3%, thereby increasing the available capacity rate by more than 2%. The technical details above
were also frequently mentioned in previous research on the energy storage temperature control industry. And most importantly, in addition to Huawei and Sungrow Power Supply, CATL also puts forward such requirements for manufacturers in temperature control.
This is also an important key point for whether Shenling Environment can win in the subsequent competition with its competitors such as Tongfei Co., Ltd. and Yingweike.
Recently, an announcement from Shenling Environment's investor exchange showed that the company stated that the number of orders in hand is relatively sufficient, and the growth in the past few years has been slower, largely due to capacity constraints. The completion of the company's IPO fundraising project has solved the capacity problem to a certain extent.
According to the prospectus instructions, the Shenling Environmental IPO fundraising project is a professional special environmental system research and development and manufacturing base project with a total investment of 630 million yuan. It was put into production in May 2022, which means that the temperature control capacity construction cycle is about 1 year.
Currently, the company continues to raise funds in the secondary market, such as building intelligent temperature control equipment intelligent manufacturing projects in the new infrastructure field and professional special environmental system R&D and manufacturing base projects (Phase II) through a private placement. The total investment amount is planned to be 910 million yuan.
If the private placement is successfully passed, according to the production capacity production progress at the time of the IPO, the private placement production line will be successfully put into production by the end of 2023, which is also the focus of continuous follow-up and research.
The industry believes that the reason why Shenling Environment continues to expand its production capacity is not only to ensure the status of Huawei's core suppliers, but also hopes to enter the list of CATL's energy storage temperature control suppliers.
Although Shenling Environment is currently in import, CATL has a relatively complete and mature supplier development process: the first step is supplier qualification certification, reviewing the company's technology, management, supply chain, etc.; the second step is product quality certification, and some product trial production; the third step is small batch supply certification, with the entire cycle ranging from 10 months to 12 months.
Whether Shenling Environment's technology and products can be recognized by CATL also needs to be followed closely. After all, CATL is currently introducing products from Tongfei Co., Ltd.
After understanding the company's market prospects in the domestic energy storage temperature control field and customer introduction, another major battlefield for photovoltaic energy storage in China - export, is also a focus that Shenling Environment must mention.
Europe's energy is tight, Shenling Fali Heat Storage + Heat Pump
Shenling Environment previously issued an announcement stating that it plans to jointly invest in the establishment of Guangdong Shenling Thermal Storage Technology Co., Ltd. with Zhongzhi Investment, Shenling Investment and Zhongmei Investment. The company decided to plan to enter the air energy heat pump heating field, combining solar energy utilization and energy storage technology to provide integrated photoelectric storage and heat storage solutions for customers in the European market and even globally. At present, the thermal storage company has completed industrial and commercial registration. The reason why
wants to make overseas layouts in heat storage and heat pumps is also similar to that of A-share photovoltaic energy storage companies - I hope to get a share of the big cake of overseas exports.
Simply put, an air energy heat pump is a device that uses a small amount of electrical energy to drive the heat pump unit, circulates in disguise through the working medium, and then utilizes thermal energy in the air. It is mainly used in hot water, heating, drying and other fields, and has the characteristics of energy saving and pollution-free.
Compared with other heating methods, the primary energy consumption of air source heat pump is only 27% of electric boiler , 49% of coal-fired boiler, and 59% of gas boiler .
simply sorted out recent news. First, the German cabinet passed a number of energy-saving measures this Wednesday.
From September 1, except for hospitals and other places, the heating temperature in public buildings can only be up to 19 degrees Celsius. In corridors, halls and other areas, the ornamental lighting in heating buildings and streets will be completely shut down, and the lighting of the floor shops at night may also be banned. A ban on heating for private pools is also being planned.
In addition, the Russian Nord Stream No. 1 natural gas pipeline mentioned at the beginning of the article is suspended indefinitely. Industry estimates that this will keep European natural gas tight until the end of 2023 to mid-2024.
Relevant people predict that the European energy crisis combined with China's "dual carbon" strategy will accelerate the increase in the penetration rate of air energy heat pump .
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has catalyzed the European energy crisis. Europe is facing the background of interruption of natural gas supply. The energy dependence of more than 70% of natural gas is urgently needed to change its energy supply structure.
As an important field of energy consumption, the advantages of air source heat pumps not relying on fossil energy and high energy efficiency are highlighted. They are included in the "REPowerEU" energy plan and are expected to become the mainstream heating method under "gas shortage".
Therefore, after Shenling Environment disclosed such business and related company investments, the market directly gave a 20cm daily limit. But in addition to being excited, we must be aware that it still takes time from completing industrial and commercial registration of a thermal storage company to finally providing products and solutions to customers.
valuation has broken through the upper edge. Can the performance be verified?
needs to remain rational in the face of market and stock price fluctuations. Shenling Environment has risen by more than three times since the end of April, and the K line chart and historical valuation quantile have both broken through the center.
From historical experience, if a stock breaks through the center in the photovoltaic and energy storage sectors, it means that the market has predicted that the subsequent company's performance will increase significantly. Judging from the performance trend of Shenling Environmental, the growth rate of net profit attributable to shareholders of this year's first quarter report is exactly the incremental turning point.
After the first quarter report of 2022 achieved a revenue growth rate of more than 120% and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 724%, Shenling Environmental announced that in the face of the severe global epidemic situation, the company achieved rapid growth in the first quarter of 2022, mainly because in recent years, the company insisted on focusing on its main business and production capacity gradually released. Although
does not explain the specific reasons and customer revenue structure, with the official implementation of the IPO fundraising and investment project put into production in May, under the performance of base effect , Shenling Environment may still maintain a high growth rate before the 2023 interim report.
returns to the original problem. Although the temperature control production expansion cycle is only about one year, the performance between the mid-to-annual report in 2023 will face a high base and capacity incremental gap. It is indeed necessary to be vigilant whether the market will fulfill its expectations in advance.
Temperature Control This big cake has begun to be put into the pot, and the chopped green onion has also been spread to Europe. However, if manufacturers like Shenling Environment want to continue to obtain high valuations, they must have technology, customer verification, production capacity, performance increment, and profitability one by one in order to "worthy" the market's expectations.
This article is from Alpha Factory Research Institute
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