Since Russian President Putin announced the local mobilization and the Russian army will use "all weapons and equipment" and "all military forces", the debate about whether Russia will use nuclear weapons has been quite lively. It can be said that this is the biggest unsolved case since the Russian-Ukrainian war entered a new stage, and it is also a prominent issue that has a significant impact on Central and Eastern Europe and even the global situation and the future world.
, including Ukrainian , President Zelensky, insisted that this was just Putin's desperate attempt to jump over the wall and intimidate. Its purpose was to cover up his battlefield failure and bargain with the West. Some people even said that it was to retreat from Ukraine to cover up, and asserted that Russia would have to withdraw its troops soon. These people believe that Russia will not and dare to use nuclear weapons, and that Putin's intimidation will still be unable to avoid failure. In the end, what awaits him will be the trial of the law. As expressed by US Secretary of State Blinken , the final result can only be Putin "accepting trial."
There is another saying that as the Russian-Ukraine war tends to be severely expanded, this war already has the obvious characteristics of world war and a total war. In this case, Russia is very likely to use nuclear weapons. At critical moments, Putin is completely likely to use small-equivalent tactical nuclear weapons to achieve the battle and tactical tasks he needs. Therefore, Putin's declaration on the Russian army's use of "all weapons and equipment" and "all military forces" cannot be simply regarded as a deterrent strategy. Years of experience have proved that Putin has always been true to his words. He is not a politician who is accustomed to scaring people with big words. On the contrary, what he says can basically be fulfilled, or in other words, from his own subjective intentions, he strives to fulfill them. Generally speaking, he is a person who is consistent in words and deeds.
So, how should we judge the possibility that the Russian-Ukrainian war will develop into nuclear war ?
Regarding the first statement, I think that Zelensky's words and saying this are understandable, because he really can't have any other solutions besides this. If he admits that 's nuclear strike against is possible, what can he do? I can't admit defeat now. If one day the nuclear strike really comes to the head, I have to bite the bullet and say wherever I go.
But it is a bit ulterior motive for others (especially the British) to clamor Putin to not be afraid to use nuclear weapons. They do not really care about the life and death of the Ukrainians . What they really care about is whether Ukraine can continue to fight bloodyly. As long as Ukraine continues to fight bloodyly, everything is enough. As for whether this war will expand into a nuclear war in the future, this is probably not what the British are concerned about. If the Americans leave it to measure and grasp it, the British responsibility is to rush to the fire, fearing that the war will not burn strong and the chaos in Europe will not be big enough.
Frankly speaking, the United States is more serious about Russia's use of nuclear weapons. Previously, in response to this trend, Biden firmly said three "No" in an interview, and later, he once again strongly condemned Russia's attempt to use nuclear weapons at UN General Assembly . According to media reports, US officials revealed that in recent months, the US government has been communicating with Russia privately, warning them that the use of nuclear weapons will have serious consequences. The report also said that US State Department was involved in such private communication with Russia, but officials did not disclose the details of the communication, nor did they say whether the warning was issued again after Putin's speech. Various facts have proved that the United States did not regard Putin's declaration as a joke, but instead took a serious attitude and responded seriously.
It should be said that at the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian war, nuclear weapons came on stage and began to play a role. People will not forget that Russia held a massive nuclear war exercise before the outbreak of the war, which caused a sensation at that time. In other words, the deterrent effect of nuclear weapons has been shown long ago, and nuclear weapons have already appeared.Now that the war has reached this level today, the role of nuclear weapons has been further utilized and exerted, which is obviously in line with the development logic of the war. When two people fight to the depths, they use whatever guys they want, let alone a large-scale war between countries. When they embark on the road of life and death, it is impossible to hide key weapons and killer weapons. Of course, no one can assert that the Russian-Ukraine war is destined to develop into a nuclear war, but under the current circumstances, the possibility of Russia actually using nuclear weapons is increasing dangerously.
As for how big this possibility is, it will change with the actual progress of the battlefield and war, and everything will be transferred based on time, place and conditions. If Russia advances smoothly in the future and continues to win with existing conventional means, in this case, it is unlikely that Putin will use nuclear weapons, and may even gradually remain silent; on the contrary, if Russia fails one after another, the dangers face becoming increasingly greater and a serious crisis of failure occur, the possibility of Putin using nuclear weapons will increase sharply. Putin will not hold a large number of nuclear weapons in his hands and not use them, but will sit on the battlefield and watch his army be annihilated, and will sit on the Ukrainian army march into Moscow. The entire Russia will not sit on the sidelines of its country to fall apart again. They have made and reserved so many nuclear weapons, but are unwilling to be used as decorations and exhibitions. Now Russia's nationalist sentiment is so high that it will never wait to die to accept the so-called "trial" of the West.
This is probably the terrifying thing about the Russian-Ukrainian war. If nuclear war really starts, it will be unimaginable what the future of the world will be like. Of course, it is a hasty to prepare for this now, but it may not be possible to take it lightly and ignore it. You need to pay close attention to it at all times.
Note: The author of this article is Zhang Zhikun, a core member of the "Qin'an Strategic Think Tank", and is the original work of on this platform . In the new year, I wish everyone join hands, overcome the epidemic, curb hegemony, and move towards a better future together.
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