On September 15, 2008, the subprime mortgage crisis escalated, and the American investment bank Lehman Brothers company filed for bankruptcy protection. A "financial tsunami" that hit the world followed, causing a heavy blow to the economies of countries around the world. Although ten years have passed and the economies of most countries and regions have slowly recovered, the shadow of this financial crisis still exists today, and the negative impact it brings cannot be completely eliminated in a short period of time.
At the same time, the gap between the rich and the poor in some countries has widened, government debts in some regions have been high, and anti-globalization trends have emerged in some countries, and the financial crisis has shown signs of re-emergence.
The experience of world economic development in the past century shows that the economic crisis is cyclical and happens every ten years or so. Now it has just been the tenth anniversary of the outbreak of the last financial crisis. Will the next financial crisis come as scheduled?
From the current world economic situation, affected by the trend of trade protectionism, the global economic recovery force is quite fragile. Recently, it has entered a strong cycle of US dollar interest rate hike + balance sheet reduction . The appreciation of the US dollar and the currency tightening policy have induced the global dollar to return to the United States, causing the financing costs of other economies to rise. Some emerging economies are facing risks such as currency depreciation, fiscal crisis, and decline in foreign reserves. The concurrent factors have led to the seeds of inducing financial crisis.
The financial crisis is not without traces. By reviewing history, we can learn from relevant experience and predict the next crisis. The financial crisis ten years ago began with excessive innovation in traditional finance. In order to maximize profits, major American financial institutions developed various financial derivatives, carefully packaged them and sold them to investors around the world. Some financial derivatives were extremely complex, and even the sellers themselves did not know it. In the end, the financial crisis was triggered by excessive risks. The deeper reason behind
is that supervision is out of control. Regulatory authorities cannot understand the innovations of traditional financial institutions and cannot control the risks behind them. Since then, countries have learned lessons and strengthened supervision to make up for regulatory loopholes. Traditional financial innovation is restricted, thus controlling risks.
Every financial crisis has its differences, and the next time is no exception. In recent years, with the rapid development of information technology, the Internet has gradually become the dominant force in the social economy, technological innovation has become a hot field, various new technologies and new models emerge one after another, and the financial industry has also been greatly affected.
Based on the integration with Internet technology, Internet finance was born and developed very rapidly, and technology-based companies are the mainstream. Due to the rapid technological progress, the development of Internet finance is ahead of regulation. In recent years, in the face of a variety of technology and financial products, the supervision has been somewhat unable to do so. For a time, Internet finance is in a state of wild growth, and risks are increasing day by day.
In the past two years, the Internet financial bubble has been relatively inflated, and various technological financial innovative products are too complex, such as blockchain, virtual currency ICO, etc., which are difficult for ordinary investors to understand, and they do not understand the hidden risks. Therefore, investors are easily attracted by dazzling recommendations and high-interest returns, thus ignoring the investment risks behind them.
bubble is too big and will eventually collapse. The chaos in Internet finance needs to be rectified, otherwise it may become the fuse of a new crisis. Due to the lack of temporary strict and effective supervision of Internet financial innovation, coupled with the inherent advantages of Internet technology, the risks of technical financial innovation are infinitely amplified. Once a financial crisis caused by technological innovation breaks out, it will be more lethal than previous crises.
Therefore, on the occasion of the tenth anniversary of the financial crisis, countries should not only review history and learn lessons, but also be vigilant and be prepared for technological financial innovation to induce financial crisis. To prevent the crisis from causing harm to countries around the world again, we need to make professional predictions as soon as possible, formulate appropriate emergency plans, put institutional patches on Internet finance, regulate technical financial innovation, and discourage excessive innovation. We need to give priority to safety and stability, and prepare security pad to reduce the impact of the financial crisis on the social and economics of various countries. (Source: Beijing News)
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