Direct News: U.S. Secretary of Commerce Raymondo said that under the Chip Act implementation strategy, U.S. chip companies that have received government funding cannot make new high-tech investments in China or other "worrying countries" for at least the next decade.

Direct News: U.S. Commerce Secretary Raymondo said that under the Chip Act implementation strategy, those U.S. chip companies that have received government funding cannot make new high-tech investments in China or other "worrying countries" for at least the next decade. What do you interpret this?

Special Commentator Liu Heping: I have said before that the core of competition between China and the United States lies in economic competition, the core of economic competition lies in technological competition, and the core of technological competition lies in competition in the chip industry. Or in other words, the main battlefield for future competition between China and the United States will be concentrated on this small chip. At the same time, in turn, since chips have become the core and soul component of the development of all industries, especially the electronics industry, the result of competition and game between China and the United States on this small chip will in turn determine the result of final competition and game between China and the United States in the economic, technological, military and even political fields. So, after the end of last month, the Biden administration has clearly required two American chip design companies, Nvidia and AMD, not to export high-end chips to China. This time, according to the previously passed "Chip Act", it explicitly prohibits American chip companies from investing in China in high-tech. These measures further confirm my judgment.

It is worth noting that this small chip is not only the crystallization of human industrial civilization and scientific and technological progress over the past few hundred years, but also the result of human economic globalization and division of labor and cooperation in the industrial chain. Among them, the United States dominated the upstream of the chip industry chain, that is, chip research and development and design, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan dominated the midstream of the chip industry, that is, chip materials, equipment and manufacturing, , the Netherlands, lithography machine is the most advanced in the world, while mainland China dominated the downstream of the chip industry, that is, the packaging and testing of chips. This means that if leaves economic globalization and global industrial chain division of labor and cooperation, no country in the world, including the United States, can produce a small chip alone at the current stage.

Then we can see from this that the United States attempts to completely exclude China and those countries that seem "worrying" to the United States from the production and supply chain of high-end chips in the world. In fact, it is to completely exclude the high-tech industries of China, Russia and other countries from the economic globalization system. In other words, the United States is trying to return to its past "half-spherical" state in the field of high-tech. We know that forty years ago, due to the Cold War of the East and the West, the two major camps in politics, economy and military conflicts were caused. This is the so-called "half-spherical" state. Later, it was because of the end of the Cold War of the Cold War, and the dilution of the differences between ideology and that mankind ushered in the era of real economic globalization and the global division of labor and cooperation of the chip industry. Now, in the United States, those so-called "worrying countries" obviously refer to countries whose ideology and values ​​are different from those of the United States. This means that the ideological "new Cold War" initiated by the United States is the root cause of the Biden administration's isolation of China's chip industry and promoting humanity to return to the "half-spherical" state. Therefore, the person who tied the bell must also solve the problem of anti-globalization, and to solve the problem from the source.

Direct News: A Biden administration's attempt to completely exclude China from the global high-end chip production and supply chain system will eventually get what it wants?

Special Commentator Liu Heping: I think that as economic globalization and global industrial division of labor and cooperation have reached a very high level, the Biden administration's move is undoubtedly going against the current, which will not only be very difficult, but also have to pay a huge price.

We know that when the Trump administration took the initiative to provoke trade frictions with China, especially tariff wars, the support and opposition they received were almost half-to-half. What they oppose are the importers and consumers in the United States, the public support is the local manufacturing companies and industrial workers in the United States, and the secret support is the countries that have trade competition with China, and they can take the opportunity to seize the market share of Chinese companies in the United States. However, this time the Biden administration is fighting a high-tech war with China, especially a chip war. is almost a voice of opposition, whether from the American business community or the public, or from other countries and regions that produce chips. According to Boston consulting firm , the Biden administration's move will cost U.S. chip companies 18% of global market share and 37% of revenue, and reduce 15,000 to 40,000 highly skilled jobs. South Korea, which has a very deep dependence on China's economy, has not made a clear statement on the Biden administration's initiative to establish a "Chip Quadruple Alliance". I believe that even related chip manufacturers in Japan and Taiwan dare not speak out.

However, I also believe that although the relevant countries and regions that produce chips around the world are resistant, in the end, they will still have to cooperate with the Biden administration's chip strategy. There are three main reasons behind this. One is that the Biden administration has raised the high-tech war and chip war between China and the United States to the height of ideological and national security disputes, and even to the height of collective security of the United States and its allies. No country or region dares to object when a big hat is suppressed; secondly, because the United States has seized the weaknesses of the other three parties in the "Chip Four-Party Alliance", Japan has sought the United States on the Sino-Japanese Diaoyu Islands dispute, South Korea has sought the United States on the North Korean nuclear issue, while Taiwan has sought the United States on the issue of arms sales; thirdly, the United States not only has a military alliance with Japan and South Korea, but also firmly controls the upstream links of the chip industry chain, which means that other chip production countries and regions, whoever leaves the US-led system, will be difficult to play.

Then in this case, there are only two roads facing mainland China. One is to fundamentally resolve the differences between China and the United States through diplomatic means and prevent the Biden administration from taking the pace of anti-globalization in the field of high-tech. After all, globalization is the general trend of mankind and a typical manifestation of mankind's building a community with a shared future. This trend cannot be reversed just by the United States if you want to reverse it, and it is not that if you want to throw me off the car, I have to get off the car willingly. And I think China should do this quickly and cannot make the US anti-globalization a trend and form path dependence. You should know that it is difficult to achieve the reason why the Biden administration wants to cancel the tariffs imposed on China now, because after a few years of imposing tariffs on China, a number of fixed vested interest groups have been formed at home and abroad in the United States, and they have become staunch opponents of the cancellation of tariffs on China. Second, if China still cannot stop the US high-tech war and chip war against China through diplomatic efforts, then China will have no other choice. can only show its courage and determination to work hard to develop and manufacture its own high-end chips. Although it is difficult to do this, no matter how difficult it is, you have to face it.