Direct News: The US side has further restricted China and Russia's export of high-end chips. Today, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce responded with firm opposition and urged the US side to immediately stop the wrong practices. Mr. Guan, what do you think about this?
Special commentator Guan Yao: In response to the latest actions of the US Department of Commerce, some media have made such a title, "The US side takes action against chips, China responds." But I personally think that to put it more accurately, it should be that "the US side takes action against US chips", which is also the paradox and absurdity of the US side's actions. We see that the stock prices of the two American chip manufacturers Nvidia and AMD both fell sharply yesterday during the after-hours trading period, especially Nvidia's stock price fell by more than 6 percentage points.
For the two chip manufacturers, it can be said that is leaking and is raining overnight. Because the climate of the high-end chip market is changing, buyers are "short chips everywhere" are turning to sellers' "insufficient demand". South Korea's latest quarterly trade deficit hit a 30-year high, and the sluggish chip exports are generally recognized as one of the main reasons. The company announcement submitted by Nvidia to . The US Securities and Exchange Commission shows that the relevant restrictions involve US$450 million in mass production and pre-sale of AI chips, which is only a quarterly sales data, so the market responded panic.
But I think that we should pay more attention to the latest disclosure method of the US side. In fact, it is a victim of restrictions by US companies. According to the information disclosure regulations of listed companies listed in . That is to say, if Nvidia does not disclose it to the outside world, the restriction order may not be exposed for a while. To apply a stock market regulation term, the latest US chip export restrictions are carried out in the so-called " window guidance ". This is more secretive, more focused, more directive, and of course there is no bottom line. It focuses on the population smart chip products that the US claims may be used in the military field, and also ranks Russia as a restriction target, but this is a completely symbolic arrangement, because the United States has long imposed extreme restrictions on Russia, and Nvidia and AMD have no Russian customers at all, so the latest restriction order is directed at China.
is also paradoxical that in response to the latest restrictions by CNBC Finance and Television, a spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Commerce only issued an vague statement, saying that specific policy changes will not be announced at the moment. In order to protect the national security and diplomatic interests of the United States, the United States will continue to take necessary additional actions in the fields of technology, terminal applications and end users. The subtext of the statement is very clear, and a more secretive and focused "window guidance" regulation will continue. What it conveys is the new trend of the US's chip war against China.
Direct news: So what are the new trends in the US's chip war against China?
Special Commentator Guan Yao: Today, the US CNN TV station has a highlight of the report from Hong Kong. The new rules are a reminder of how US-China tensions remain high over business and tech. The new rules are a reminder of how US-China tensions remain high over business and tech. The new regulations of the US and China have continued to have tense relations in the field of economy, trade and technology. I personally believe that the US's promotion of chip wars against China is a whole government action, a consensus between the two parties, and a main battlefield for the Biden administration's so-called comprehensive strategic competition with China.
Previously, Biden signed the so-called chip bill, trying his best to win over and build a so-called four-party chip alliance, including Taiwan. Pelosi rushed to Taiwan against the wind and caused a sensation in the Taiwan Strait. However, during her debut on the flash , she also specially arranged a meeting with TSMC senior management, including the latest U.S. restrictive actions revealed by the information disclosure announcement of US listed companies, etc., which are strengthening this trend, that is, the US fights chip war against China and fights high-tech wars, and even promotes "decoupling" in specific fields. This is both a system behavior and a long-term goal, both with the so-called goal setting and tactical promotion methods.
Now it seems that even if you pay a price similar to NVIDIA's "killing 800 enemies and losing 3,000 enemies", the US side will do whatever it takes. I noticed that Nvidia's announcement also emphasized that it will consider providing alternative solutions to Chinese customers under the regulatory framework, so based on its own interests, US companies are actually quite helpless and reluctant to set the latest restrictions on the US Department of Commerce.
Of course, this also witnesses from the opposite side. China is accelerating the directional efforts to build a new development pattern and accelerate the directional efforts of scientific and technological self-reliance and self-improvement. Specifically for the chip industry, whether in the industrial chain and supply chain, this is a cutting-edge industry that allocates resources and manpower globally and emphasizes the international division of labor and is also a highly integrated cutting-edge industry. In the short term, the United States will close its doors to China. The more the United States implements chip blockade, the more we should embrace the external world with a more active and proactive attitude. As China's top leader repeatedly emphasized, China's door to foreign cooperation will only open wider and wider. In the field of high-tech, especially chips, we cannot blindly be optimistic and deceive ourselves, and we will wishfully think that we can close the door and make development and leap forward. Recently, there have been rumors that several senior executives have been investigated for the National Development Fund of the Chip Industry, including some investment failure cases, and the alarm bells are ringing.
Direct News: Today, Tsai Ing-wen shouted when she saw the governor of Arizona, the United States who was visiting Taipei, clamoring to build the so-called "democratic chip" with the United States. What is your analysis on this?
Special Commentator Guan Yao: Three Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist Thomas Friedman has had a confusing idea in the past two years. The so-called "deep product" is of course corresponding to "shallow product". The latter includes clothes worn on the body, shoes worn on the feet, solar panels on the roof, etc. Friedman explained that in the past 40 years, China's exports to the United States mainly exported shallow products, while many of the US exported to China were deep products, including computers, software, etc.
Friedman's discourse logic is that when China only outputs shallow products to the United States, the United States will not have too many political considerations. However, in the past 10 years, China has relied on its own technological development and progress to achieve the improvement and leap of the value chain and began to sell high-value-added deep products similar to Huawei 5G equipment to the United States, the US's so-called values and social system doubts attached to the deep products were greatly aroused, and collisions were inevitable.
In my opinion, Friedman's set of attacks is actually aimed at the Sino-US trade war and even the chip war and high-tech war. Under the framework of so-called competition for values and institutions, it provides a set of high-sounding "discourse paradigms". If Friedman's explanation is valid, then I would like to ask, since the US has sold "deep products" to China for more than 40 years, why hasn't China been stimulated with so-called values doubts?
Governor Tsai’s so-called “democratic chip” is undoubtedly following the trap of Friedman’s words and digging out a new trap, that is, emphasizing TSMC’s chips, which are also such “deep products”, which have so-called values and institutional attributes. Taiwan wants to create “democratic chips” with the United States. This is the latest claim of Governor Tsai’s “relying on the United States to seek independence”. In other words, Taiwan is in the same group as the United States in terms of values and social systems, and is in the same camp as the United States. This is a typical act of forgetting the clan. Wang Yi once criticized Tsai Ing-wen. If Mr. Zhongshan had a spirit underground, he would definitely denounce such an unworthy descendant like Tsai, and it would not be unfair to curse him at all.
Author丨Guan Yao, Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Broadcast Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan" special commentator
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