Tan Ke: The US military ended its evacuation operation from Afghanistan amid the terrorist attack and explosion. The longest war in American history ended in haste, chaos and explosions.

Tan Ke: The US military ended its evacuation in the terrorist attack and explosion Afghanistan operation

Author: Tan Ke

Source: Fudan University American Research Center

WeChat platform editor: Zhou Yue

US military announced its evacuation on time when the last bell rang on August 31, Afghan time. The longest war in American history ended in haste, chaos and explosions.

On August 30, Eastern Time, the last C-17 flew away from Kabul International Airport

, Biden and the team failed the first major test

, promised that "no one will be left", but there are still about "10%" of Americans who are preparing to leave. On August 30, Eastern Time, Kenneth McKenzie, Commander-in-Chief of the U.S. Central Command, announced that as the last C-17 flew away from Kabul Airport, the United States marked the completion of the Afghan evacuation operation, and the last plane was also the U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan, Ross Wilson, was also the U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan. He said that since August 14, the United States has evacuated a total of 79,000 people, including 6,000 Americans, and the rest are Afghan translators, embassy staff, journalists, activists and families.

From the beginning, Biden and his staff repeatedly said that "no one will be left behind", but even Biden himself said in his TV speech on the 31st that "10% of Americans who wanted to leave Afghanistan did not evacuate." Regarding the reasons why these Americans have not evacuated, the Biden administration mainly explained that most of them are Afghans, and many people are reluctant to evacuate at the beginning because their families are in Afghanistan. Later, about 5,000 of these people expressed their desire to evacuate, and the United States and allies finally withdrew 5,500 Americans.

Former Vice President Pence tweeted, "It's really shameful." "It's not the American way to keep Americans there." "Any US president should understand this very well." Biden has been criticized by many Republican lawmakers. Nebraska Republican Senator Ben Sasse said in a statement that "the president's decision to leave Americans behind cannot be morally tenable," said "Shame is the president's choice. May history never forget this cowardice."

Although it can be felt that the left-wing public opinion is also critical, it is rare for Democratic politicians to stand up publicly to criticize. Publicly criticized include New Jersey House Representative Tom Malinowski, who had explicitly opposed Biden's withdrawal plan in April. It is not difficult to understand that he has a sharp attitude towards the administration's failure to evacuate Americans and Afghan allies. In addition, Rep. Seth Moulton, a Massachusetts , who served as a naval officer at , Iraq, called this situation "a disaster" and "avoidable."

2. Not only did all the personnel not be taken away, but weapons and equipment were also left behind. When the Taliban started to appear in the streets and alleys with weapons, people who know equipment have noticed that they are carrying American weapons. What’s more interesting is that when they took over Kabul Airport, they all appeared in all American uniforms and equipment. Americans may feel amused and laughed (it’s okay to carry American weapons, but even the uniforms are wearing American styles. Are they enemies or friendly forces?). The New York Times commented this: Unlike the previous scenes that were defeated by the Soviets, the American legacy is not the scene where the ruined armored vehicle wreckage was everywhere. Instead, they left behind all the weapons and equipment needed to provide the winner Taliban in the next few years, the result of spending 20 years and $83 billion in training and equipping the Afghan army and police forces.

3. Biden repeatedly published conclusions that differ from facts. If Biden had promised to ensure a "safe and orderly" evacuation operation before, it was because of a mistake in strategic judgment, but his later forced defense, it surprised the public opinion. In an exclusive interview with ABC ABC, he said that he did not think there was a way to retreat without confusion, and he asked repeatedly, how could that be possible.In other words, it is inevitable that chaos will occur. As soon as this statement was made, it triggered another wave of criticism. Later when talking about the evacuation time, he said that the army would be left there until everyone evacuated, but obviously this perception was wrong. Before he finished speaking, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Defense made it clear that it must evacuate before September 1, and if it is to be extended, further negotiations will be needed. And the facts did not follow Biden's words. The comments about the Taliban also showed an embarrassment of being unable to justify themselves: from firm "distrust" to suggesting that they were making changes for legalization, to the end his central commander made it clear that the Taliban played a "helpful and beneficial" role in the evacuation operation.

4. There are problems with departmental coordination. Biden complained in an interview that the reason he had previously judged that the Taliban took over Afghanistan was "impossible" because of inconsistent intelligence. If Biden's memory is not problematic, it means that there is a problem with the communication between and of the White House and other departments. From the perspective of American history, many crises have caused troubles in the absence of departmental cooperation or poor communication. In such an emergency, various departments seem to be still operating independently, and the news releases are held in their own way. Many questions from journalists participating in the press release of the Ministry of National Defense will be answered by "This question should be asked by the State Council"; vice versa. From the perspective of bystanders, there seems to be a lack of a comprehensive coordination mechanism. "There is not much communication there, not much cooperation. It is the source of chaos and disappointment," said Rep. Dean Phillips, a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee and Minnesota , in an interview with NPR. "In an interview with NPR, "there is not much communication there, not much cooperation. This is the source of chaos and disappointment," he said, a young aide in his office was embarrassed by the "poor cooperation" that the evacuation took.

The president national security adviser Sullivan, who was previously praised as the Democratic Party's most promising political star, did not show any extraordinary features in this operation. On the contrary, what people feel is powerless and pale. As a role that goes beyond departmental constraints, presents directly to the president and directly conveys the president's will, he should play a central role in handling this action. If this action was a failure, then Sullivan's ability may be questioned. Some commented that while he knew all the theories and academic arguments of foreign policy, his overseas experience was not strong, which could lead to a disconnect between ideas and implementation.

5. The judgment of the situation in Afghanistan was severely failed. Biden repeatedly mentioned that they originally thought that the 300,000 Afghan government forces, which had been trained for 20 years and had all American equipment, should have enough ability to deal with the Taliban, but they did not expect that they would flee without a fight. But why did they flee without fighting? This Biden and his team never gave an answer, the only explanation is because they have no will to fight. No matter what the reason is, it is not important. What is important is that Biden's intelligence system is problematic. If it is either the intelligence itself, it is communication disorder and the White House's leadership is problematic.

6. Biden's public opinion fell sharply. Pew Research Center (usually left-handed) polls from August 23 to 29 showed that most people were dissatisfied with the Biden administration's actions. Only 26% think that the completion was good or excellent (good/excellent); 29% think that the fair was not satisfactory; 42% think that the implementation was very poor. ABC/Ipsos poll (left) shows that 59% are dissatisfied with Biden's handling of Afghan evacuation, and 38% are affirming. A poll released by the Rasmussen poll (which is said to be more pro-Republican) on September 1, 52% of the people surveyed believed that Biden should resign on the withdrawal of troops in Afghanistan, 39% expressed opposition, and 9% expressed uncertainty. A survey on approval ratings released by NBC News in late August showed Biden's overall approval rating was 49%, compared with 53% in April. Among them, for Afghanistan, the support and non-support are 25%-60% respectively. When US House of Representatives Dean of Pelosi tweeted Biden's "firm leadership", she was scolded and responded by saying that she was " Alzheimer's ", "madman", and "idiot", and called Biden a "traitor" and "cold-blooded killer".

7. Biden still insisted that the evacuation operation achieved "extraordinary success." The TV speech that Biden made after his evacuation was almost a congratulatory letter. He said: "Last night in Kabul , the United States ended the 20-year war in Afghanistan, the longest war in American history. We completed one of the largest air transport in history, with more than 120,000 people evacuated to safety. This number is more than twice the number that most experts think is possible. No country, no country has done such a thing throughout history. Only the United States has the ability, will and ability to do this, and we have done it today. The extraordinary success of this mission is attributed to the incredible skills, courage and selfless courage of the US military, our diplomats and our intelligence professionals."

2. Will the failed image of the withdrawal operation affect Biden and the Democrats?

For the Democratic Party, the most worrying thing is the impact of this crisis on future election situations. In fact, the New York Times lamented that the Democrats are increasingly worried about their ability to control Washington's power in this operation and the way they later responded to the crisis. Republican even directly called for impeachment and asked Biden to resign. But:

. How likely is it to be impeached first? Republican boss Mickey McConnell directly stated "impossible". He said that in a Democratic majority House and the Senate Congress, the president will not be exempted, and that it cannot happen. Of course, it is even more impossible for Biden to resign himself. He did not admit that he had done anything wrong from scratch. Moreover, even during the ceremony to welcome the bodies of US soldiers, not only did he try to talk to the first lady, but he was also photographed checking the watch on his wrist. Obviously, he took it calmly.

2. Secondly, will it damage the Democratic Party’s future election situation? If an election is held right now, it will obviously have an impact, but if it is one year or two years later, it is estimated that Afghanistan or the Taliban will no longer be the ones who have occupied the headlines at that time. Of course, if Afghanistan or the Taliban become headlines again by then, the Democratic Party's election situation will indeed be affected. For American voters, although they feel that they should not see soldiers killed by bombing, they may also accept the fact that it is God's responsibility to sacrifice for the country. What they are more worried about is that their self in the United States will become the target of bombing in the future. If this happens, Biden and his Democrats may face a real crisis.

3. Again, the instability of the situation in Afghanistan itself may also trigger American public opinion. How does the Taliban government work? How the United States handles its relationship with the Taliban has become a new anxiety in the current US foreign relations.

III. Support and opposition to withdraw troops from Afghanistan

. The majority of the people opposed the war and supported the withdrawal of troops. According to a Pew Research Center poll from August 23-29, 54% said withdrawal was the right choice, and 42% opposed it. 69% believe that the United States' Afghan War was a failure.

2. Scholars’ views. Scholars who have long been engaged in US security strategy expressed support for Biden's decision on whether the United States should end the Afghan war. At the beginning of the withdrawal, when people were whipping the chaos in Afghanistan, Stephen Walter of Harvard University still expressed his support on Twitter: "Although the withdrawal operation was tragic, Afghan (withdrawal) did not hurt the credibility of the United States", (later written into an article published in Foreign Policy). Christopher Layne, a great strategy scholar who came out with him, said in an interview with the author that the collapse was almost certain when the Afghan government and military knew clearly that the United States would end its military commitments. The U.S. military certainly opposes President Biden's decision, but their opposition is illogical. Those who support continuing the Afghan war believe that “we only need a little more time and more military.” However, after 20 years of failure, supporters of this war have no winning strategy – except that the United States should continue an open-ended commitment to stay in Afghanistan. Indeed, it is just a "forever war".Ryan believes that the establishment of the U.S. foreign policy has shared responsibility for the collapse of Afghanistan. Their failure to learn from history and be consumed by arrogant power leads them to believe that the United States can reshape Afghanistan in its image. President Biden saw through the lies and false assumptions of diplomatic establishment and the U.S. military, and realized that they had never had a viable plan to achieve a "victory" in Afghanistan, which is commendable. It's time for the United States to end its role in the Afghan war.

* Statement: This article only represents the author's personal views and does not represent the position of this official account

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