frozen food
This is an in-depth report on the development of the frozen food industry in 2019. It mainly focuses on three aspects: the overview of the frozen industry, the analysis of frozen categories and the prospects of frozen enterprises, and the in-depth interpretation of the development of the industry.
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丨 Quick-freeze industry profile 丨
my country's consumption is still low and the space is still large
Both supply and demand are changing
One
Development history : The quick-frozen industry has entered the "mobile Internet era"
my country's quick-frozen food rose in the 1980s and 1990s, and with the progress of the times and the improvement of living standards, it has achieved rapid development. Looking at the development history of my country's frozen food industry, it can be roughly divided into four stages: 1) the era of industry; 2) the era of commerce and trade; 3) the era of Internet; 4) the era of mobile Internet.
Since 2015, the frozen food industry has officially entered the "mobile Internet era". In this era of "traffic is king", it is required to provide high-standard food while solving personalized needs, which not only breaks through the demand bottlenecks it faces. Moreover, it can cater to the large-scale, process-based and standardized material requirements of the catering industry, and the standardized catering supply brand is developing rapidly.
2
Development status: Compared with developed countries, the per capita consumption of frozen food in my country is still at a low level.
Fast frozen food has become an important part of the food industry in developed countries due to its convenience and industrial characteristics. With the accelerated pace of life and the more refined social division of labor, the demand for frozen food is also stronger:
- per capita consumption , the per capita consumption of frozen food in the United States reached 60kg/year, Europe reached 35kg/year, and Japan also reached 20kg/year, but in comparison, my country's per capita consumption was only 9kg/year, which is a big gap compared with developed countries;
- In terms of the colors (category) of frozen food, the average number of types in the United States, Europe and Japan remains above 2,500, while there are only 600 types in my country, which is also a gap compared with developed countries.
Three
Development space: Both supply and demand are changing, and there is a large space for the development of my country's fast-freezing industry
Long-term trend: Under the socialization of housework, the increase in the use of fast-freezing is a long-term trend.
As the pace of life accelerates, the trend of socialization of housework is becoming more obvious. Compared with Japan, it can be found that in the socialization process of housework, the digestion of external food and frozen food is also increasing year by year. Therefore, it can be seen that the socialization process of housework is the main driving force for the development of convenient catering forms such as external food and frozen food.
1. Demand side: Family demand has been steadily released, and catering demand mismatch is obvious and rapidly amplified.
Family demand: The cooking technology of young people is beginning to decline, which is the main factor driving the development of convenient foods such as frozen foods.
Catering needs: Compared with family channels, catering channels are an important channel for frozen food. In fact, judging from the experience of Japan, which has a relatively developed industry, catering channels are the main force in digesting frozen food production capacity.
- In terms of quantity, of the sales volume of 1.6 million tons of Japan's rapid freezing industry in 2017, 41% were for household use (family demand), and 59% were for business use (catering and other demand);
- , 718 billion yuan was for sales volume in 2017. Among them, 42% are for household use and 58% are for business use.
If Japan is used as the reference system, the proportion of the quick-frozen industry in the family and catering channels should be 2:3. Food service channels such as catering are the main sales channels for quick-frozen food.
What is the roughly the channel structure of fast-frozen food in my country? According to our disassembly and calculations of categories, it is estimated that the structure of catering: family is about 3:7.
- According to IBIS data, supermarkets account for 61% of fast frozen rice and noodles food in my country, small retail terminals account for 23%, and other channels are only 16%.Considering the market size of 64.7 billion yuan for frozen noodles rice, it is estimated that 84% of frozen noodles rice are supermarket channels (i.e., family-oriented channels, corresponding to 54.3 billion yuan for market size), and 16% are catering channels (assuming that other channels are catering, Corresponding to a market size of 10.4 billion yuan);
- According to the channel data of a leading hot pot ingredients company, (general food manufacturing companies mainly go downstream through dealers. Here, assuming that the proportion of dealers to place catering is 70%), we roughly calculate catering : The family structure accounts for 62%/38% respectively (the leading data is more representative). Considering the market size of 41.1 billion yuan of frozen hot pot ingredients, it is estimated that 24.7 billion yuan of frozen hot pot ingredients will be taken into the catering channel, while 16.4 billion yuan will be taken into the catering channel. Family channels;
- Other categories assume catering: each family accounts for 50%. Based on comprehensive calculations, we can roughly calculate that the current Chinese catering channel for frozen food in my country: family channel = 36%: 64%. Judging from this result, there is still a lot of room for adjustment in the catering industry in my country's fast-frozen food.
2. Supply side: Cold chain progress + product innovation, industry changes are happening.
The rapid development of cold chain transportation has driven the increase in the radiation radius of the fast-freezing industry. Currently, fresh food e-commerce and fruit and vegetable and home delivery have become popular choices in the current consumer market, and have also driven the rapid development of the domestic cold chain logistics market.
- According to statistics, in 2018, my country's cold chain logistics market size has reached 303.5 billion yuan/+19%, and it is expected that the cold chain logistics scale will still maintain a growth rate of about 20%;
- Since cold chain logistics still has a lot of room for development in my country Many giant companies have begun to deploy cold chain logistics, especially e-commerce and express delivery companies that respond quickly to the logistics market, such as SF Express , JD , etc.
- With the rapid development of cold chain transportation, the sales radius of frozen food can be expanded and the radiation range will be further improved.
innovation capabilities enhance drive category explosion and quality upgrade. has experienced the "fighting" of homogeneous competition in the early stage and the continuous improvement of quick-freezing technology. Frozen food companies have begun to continuously improve their product innovation capabilities and embark on the road of differentiation;
- On the one hand, it is the explosion of new products. For daily consumer goods such as frozen food, innovation in categories is an important means to generate new demand. From the 2019 hot pot ingredients annual selection, we can see that there are more than 20 award-winning categories, and more and more brands are beginning to rely on special new products and hot pot products to gain market share;
- , on the other hand, is a quality upgrade. The quality upgrade of quick-frozen products is more in line with the current trend of consumption upgrading. Taking quick-frozen hot pot ingredients as an example, high-end fish paste products have gradually shown advantages in recent years, such as Haixin's "Yuji Brand" is the high-end products on the market. The representative of the company is that in 2017, Yuji product revenue reached 120 million yuan, with an annual compound growth rate of 33.5%, and a gross profit margin of 50.6%. There is also a lot of room for high-end products.
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丨 quick freeze category analysis 丨
noodles rice is large in scale, hot pot ingredients are very popular, pre-made dishes have high potential
Currently, the market is fast frozen noodles rice with a large proportion There are two major categories of quick-frozen hot pot ingredients. In addition, various leading companies have begun to launch quick-frozen dishes products for catering channels, which can divide my country's quick-frozen food into three categories: quick-frozen noodles, quick-frozen hot pot ingredients, and quick-frozen dishes.
According to the life cycle of the industry (comprehensive industry growth rate and market concentration), we believe that these three categories are in different stages of the industry's life cycle:
- Quick-frozen noodles are in a relatively mature stage, with a large industry scale and a leading brand The advantages are obvious and the market concentration is high;
- quick-frozen hot pot ingredients are in the growth stage, and the industry's growth rate is faster than the rice noodles, and leading brands are steadily increasing their market share;
- quick-frozen dishes, as the newly-rise category, are in the market In the pioneering stage, there is high potential.
1
Quick frozen noodles rice: the largest scale, the leading leader
Market size: The market size of quick frozen noodles rice in 2017 has reached 64.7 billion yuan.
- Due to the availability of data, we use output value to measure the market size here. According to data from the Bureau of Statistics and China Business Network, the market size of frozen noodles in my country in 2017 was about 64.7 billion yuan /+7.1%, and the CAGR in 5 years was 2.5%, showing the characteristics of the mature stage in the industry's life cycle.
- Although the growth rate of the frozen noodle rice industry has slowed down, there have been many emerging categories in recent years that have become large single products, such as hand-grabbed cakes, fried dough sticks, Cantonese pastries, etc. The industry is gradually showing obvious category differentiation, and emerging categories are beginning to push the industry trend to rise.
Application scenario: a replacement for traditional staple food.
- The broad sense of staple food refers to foods that are frequently consumed in three daily meals, that is, provide people with the main source of energy and nutrition. Traditional staple foods in my country include rice, porridge, steamed buns, noodles, rice noodles, etc. As the pace of life accelerates, more and more people are beginning to choose frozen noodles and rice food as a substitute for traditional staple foods.
- Take Henan Province, where fast frozen noodles and rice enterprises are concentrated as an example. 25% of residents purchase factory-made staple food products from supermarkets, 31% purchase handicraft staple food products from the market, and 44% make staple foods from home. Only one-quarter of the residents who buy frozen staple food in supermarkets, and there is still room for improvement.
Main categories: The main frozen noodle rice foods circulating in the market include frozen noodle dumplings, dumplings, etc. Among them, dumplings and dumplings are the two main categories, accounting for 31.6% and 30.8% of frozen noodle rice products respectively.
With the increase in innovation and the upgrading of consumer demand, the categories of frozen noodles and rice are also showing a trend of blooming flowers, and new sub-sectors are constantly breaking out in large items, such as hand-grabbing cakes, cucumber buns, brown sugar steamed buns, etc. It is believed that traditional frozen noodles are close to saturation, and the subsequent growth of the industry will be driven by new large items from the subdivided industries that are constantly introduced, and the differentiation will be more obvious. The market structure of
quick frozen noodles rice is basically stable, with CR3 market share close to 64%, and the market concentration is relatively high. Since the frozen noodles rice is currently mainly positioned as a staple food substitute, it is more suitable for distribution in supermarket channels. Big brands such as Sanquan, Si Nian , etc. have gradually built certain barriers with their brand recognition and channel advantages. The entire market structure of frozen noodles rice is basically stable. The top 3 Sanquan, Si Nian, Wan Chai Wharf City The share is 28%/19%/17% respectively, and the three leading companies have accounted for 64% of the market share.
2
Quick-frozen hot pot ingredients: the track vent of quick-frozen food
Market size: 17 The market size of quick-frozen hot pot ingredients is about 41.1 billion yuan in annually.
According to data from the Bureau of Statistics and China Business Industry Network, the market size of my country's quick-frozen hot pot ingredients (including quick-frozen fish paste and quick-frozen meat products) in 2017 was about 41.1 billion yuan/+11.4%, and the CAGR in 5 years was 12.6%.
application scenarios: catering + convenience store + family, the application scenarios of faster frozen noodles and rice are more abundant.
Quick-frozen hot pot ingredients are one of the few categories among quick-frozen foods that have the attributes of snack foods. In addition to being widely used in the hot pot industry, they can also be used in catering forms such as Malatang, Kanto boiling, and barbecue. The application scenarios are very rich. The development of these application scenarios has driven the growth of demand for quick-frozen hot pot ingredients, which is expected to further increase the penetration rate of quick-frozen hot pot ingredients.
Main categories: The quick-frozen hot pot ingredients circulating in the market mainly include two categories: quick-frozen fish paste products and quick-frozen meat products, of which quick-frozen fish paste products account for about 55%, and quick-frozen meat products account for about 45%.
quick-frozen hot pot ingredients market structure is still in the integration stage, the market structure is relatively scattered and the concentration is low, and the rise of brands is expected to become the theme of the next stage. Compared with the quick-frozen noodles rice, the market structure of quick-frozen hot pot ingredients is relatively scattered. Anjing, as the absolute leader in quick-frozen hot pot ingredients, has a market share of about 9%, while Haixin and Huifa have a market share of 3% and 1.5% respectively. It ranks 2-3, with CR3's market share of only 13%.
We believe that quick-frozen hot pot ingredients are the track vents among fast-frozen foods, mainly due to the following points:
☉ Quick-frozen hot pot ingredients are fresh and salty, and can be used well in spicy catering scenarios, which meets the taste habits of most people. , has a huge potential consumer group;
☉ Take the good hot pot track and enjoy the vast space in the hot pot market;
☉ The rapid development of convenience stores has brought new incremental demand for quick-frozen hot pot ingredients.
3
Quick-frozen pre-made dishes: the next blue ocean of quick-frozen food
Let’s take Qianwei Central Kitchen, which “entered” earlier as an example. In 2008, the fried dough sticks of Miss Food began to cooperate with KFC , opening up the era of popular fried dough sticks in catering. In 2012, Si Nian Group established an independent company Qianwei Central Kitchen and began to explore the cold food catering circulation market, achieving a sales mark of 100 million yuan in the year it was established. Currently, Qianwei Central Kitchen’s catering customers include KFC, Pizza Hut , McDonald’s , Zhen Kung Fu, Dicos, Yonghe Soy Milk, etc.
Qianwei Central Kitchen's success reflects the huge market for quick-frozen pre-made dishes that specialize in catering channels and have also attracted the attention of capital.
- As a pioneer in my country's quick-frozen dishes, Qianwei Central Chu has maintained an annual transaction scale and total profit growth of 20%-30% since its establishment. Its sales in 2017 have reached 610 million yuan and its net profit is nearly 47 million yuan. The success of Qianwei Zhongchu means that quick-frozen pre-made dishes have huge market space;
- 18, JD.com and Juewei Food jointly invested 100 million yuan in Qianwei Zhongchu, with an overall valuation of 1 billion yuan, which also reflects the The capital market’s concern for frozen pre-made dishes.
and other leading domestic quick-frozen companies have also opened up the quick-frozen dish market.
- Sanquan Food established a subsidiary Zhengzhou Kuaichu in 2016 to open up the domestic fast frozen dishes market for catering. In 2018, the company's catering channel's operating income has reached 560 million yuan/+45.9%, accounting for 10.1% of the total revenue. Become an important source of revenue contribution for the company; at the end of
- 18, Anjing Food also adjusted its business strategy, proposed "the combination of three swords and catering efforts", and launched the sub-brand "Mr. Frozen Products", which is specifically positioned in the catering ingredients category, thus Start entering the catering channel. Currently, the main products include tempura fish, tempura shrimp, bean curd, etc.
Quick-frozen pre-made dishes are still in the early stage of development and the market size is not high. However, relying on the vast catering market, quick-frozen pre-made dishes enjoy a lot of room for development and have become a track that the leaders of quick-frozen food have begun to enter. It is quick-frozen food. The next blue ocean market.
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丨 quick-frozen enterprises look forward to 丨
Looking forward to the future, what kind of enterprises can stand out?
Before we have learned about the development prospects of frozen food and major frozen products and Drive factors, so let’s talk about what kind of companies are expected to stand out in the wave of industry development?
A
Short-term: Blue Ocean Layout for Catering Channel
As the demand for semi-finished food at the catering terminal is increasing, the catering channel will become a new blue ocean for frozen food, giving the frozen industry new development opportunities. In our opinion, the current layout of fast-frozen companies in catering channels is timely.
1. The catering industry has a broad market, and the food supply chain enjoys trillions of market space.
1) People's rigid demand for diet has shaped the broad market space of the catering industry and maintained a stable growth rate. In 2018, my country's catering industry revenue reached 4271.5 billion yuan/+9.0%, and has maintained a growth rate higher than social retail sales for 2015 years.
2) The broad market of the catering industry has driven the development of the food supply market. According to statistics from Yiou Consulting, it is expected that the food supply chain will also enjoy a trillion-dollar market space.
2. The explosion of takeaway has continuously increased the demand for fast-responsive food supply.
data shows that in 18Q4, the overall scale of takeaway transactions in my country reached 140.6 billion yuan/107.7%, and has maintained a single-quarter growth rate of more than 100% since 2016. The explosive growth of takeaway has introduced more and more customer flow to the catering industry. and orders.
In addition, the rapid growth of takeaway orders + the demand for shortening delivery time determines that takeaway restaurants urgently need to respond quickly to the supply of ingredients, and also gives quick-frozen food opportunities.
3. The pressure on the cost side requires quick freezing of semi-finished products to save costs.
The prices of labor, rent, raw materials, etc. in the catering industry are constantly rising, and cost pressure has compressed the profit margin of catering companies. Therefore, more and more catering companies are beginning to try to choose quick-frozen prefabricated semi-finished products to replace some labor/rentals to achieve the goal of controlling costs.
B
Long-term: adapt to habit changes and grasp the demand-side trend
Today, under the general trend of consumption upgrading, traditional quick-frozen products can no longer meet the changing consumer demand of consumers, which means that in the future, per capita consumption growth needs to be achieved, continuous New product categories are promoted. Therefore, in order to closely grasp this consumption trend, excellent frozen food companies should have two major capabilities: has strong new product development capabilities + rich category combinations and brand advantages.
1, strong new product development capabilities
Under the trend of consumption upgrading, consumers' demand for differentiated products is increasing. So whether it is for the frozen noodles with a relatively concentrated market share, or the frozen hot pot ingredients that are still in the integration stage. , the ability to develop new products is the core competitiveness that caters to the current consumption trend.
From the example of Anjing, we can see that the new products have made a great contribution to the overall revenue growth. In 2015, the company's new quick-frozen hot pot ingredients contributed 48.1% to the revenue growth rate, and the quick-frozen noodles and rice even reached 71.2%. Therefore, whether in stock reshuffle or incremental expansion, companies with strong new product development capabilities will be able to continue to maintain strong competitiveness.
2. Rich category combination and brand advantages
Consumers' consumption habits and tastes change very quickly, which also brings great uncertainty to the life cycle of frozen products, and the market will also move towards a more segmented differentiation pattern. In order to maintain stable and sustainable long-term competitiveness, frozen food companies need to have a rich category combination and product matrix:
- In categories that have formed a certain market size (such as frozen noodles, etc.) it must have brand advantages to ensure market position and ensure market position and the stability of profitability (laying the foundation);
- continues to launch new categories in areas where the market has not yet formed a stable market (such as frozen dishes, etc.), cater to new market demands and meet consumers' changing consumption habits (gaining growth). In the ever-changing market environment, only by having rich category portfolios and brand advantages can the company maintain stable and long-term competitiveness through rotation between categories and avoid "shortcoming".
Source: Oriental Securities
is sponsored by China Food News, Henan Catering and Food Industry Association, Henan Frozen Cube Supply Chain Co., Ltd., China Food News﹒ Co-organized by the Frozen Industry Weekly, China Food News Agency Frozen and Refrigerated Food Research Institute, "Frozen Food" magazine, Frozen Food Network, and the official WeChat platform of frozen food. The 12th China Frozen Food Industry Conference will be held in Zhengzhou on August 18.
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coordinate丨Wang Xiaoling
rotating editor丨Li Jun editing丨Li Kunrui
号丨He Menghua
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