(Report Producer/Author: China Merchants Securities, Zhang Xia, Guo Yanan)
1. High-end manufacturing supply chain security deserves attention
1. Global supply chain security faces challenges
In 2018, Sino-US trade friction occurred, and the United States further launched a technological war against China. , ZTE, SMIC, Huawei and many other domestic technology companies have been affected by US With the country’s sanctions, my country’s emphasis on “safety and controllability” and “independence and controllability” in the field of science and technology has continued to increase. In 2020, the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic blocked the global supply chain. Supply problems in certain links in many fields such as metals and minerals, textiles and clothing, and semiconductors caused shortages in the entire industrial supply chain. This caused countries to begin to divide labor in the global industrial chain. There are certain concerns about being too detailed and having too high a degree of economic globalization. In 2022, the Russia-Ukraine war begins. Since Russia and Ukraine are rich in resources in the fields of energy, some metal minerals (such as aluminum, nickel, etc.), and agricultural products, as Russia is collectively sanctioned by NATO, it is difficult to export related products, once again causing global supply chain risks. , energy and raw material prices rose sharply. The domestic emphasis on supply chain security has also shifted from technology to various fields of the national economy such as food and energy.
On November 18, 2021, the Political Bureau meeting of the CPC Central Committee reviewed important documents such as the National Security Strategy, emphasizing that “it is necessary to strengthen the role of scientific and technological self-reliance and self-reliance as a strategic support for national security and development” and “must firmly establish an overall national security concept.” , "Ensure food security, energy and mineral security, and the security of important infrastructure, strengthen the security protection of overseas interests," and "accelerate the improvement of governance capabilities in areas such as biosecurity, network security, data security, and artificial intelligence security." We believe that today, with major changes unseen in a century and international relations becoming increasingly complex, supply chain security will become an important issue of concern to our country for a long time to come, and many investment opportunities will arise from this.
Previously, we have discussed the supply chain security issues of upstream food, energy and raw materials. In this article, we focus on the supply chain security of intermediate and finished products in the midstream and downstream.
2. The security of the midstream and downstream supply chain involves more domestic substitution, and high-end manufacturing is a key area.
The security of the midstream and downstream supply chain involves more domestic substitution. By sorting out my country's import dependence on mid-stream and downstream intermediate goods and finished products, we found that most of the commodities with high dependence on foreign countries are subject to technical limitations and lack domestic production capacity. Western countries, led by the United States, have implemented various types of sanctions, export restrictions, and long-arm jurisdiction to impose a comprehensive blockade on my country's high-end manufacturing industry. The most typical incident is that the United States sanctioned Huawei, which prevented Huawei from producing 5G mobile phones, thus making it impossible for Huawei to produce 5G mobile phones. my country's smartphone manufacturing industry has always relied on chips from American companies. In past reports, we have made a detailed analysis of the key areas of "stuck" and "domestic substitution". In this article, we start from the perspective of the supply chain and analyze in detail the key links that are "stuck" in various subdivisions of high-end manufacturing. Where is the current process of domestic substitution by Chinese enterprises?
my country’s chips are heavily dependent on foreign countries. In 2021, my country's chip imports amounted to US$433.7 billion, and the import trade deficit reached US$278.4 billion, both reaching record highs. In addition, the trade deficit of capacitors, LCD displays, polarizers, cover glass, sensors, optical lenses, etc. is also high, among which the trade deficit of capacitors will exceed US$5 billion in 2021. In the field of mechanical equipment, my country's semiconductor equipment relies heavily on imports. In 2021, my country's semiconductor equipment trade deficit reached 24.4 billion US dollars, far ahead of other machinery and equipment. In addition to semiconductor equipment, there is a large trade deficit in optical instruments, analytical instruments, industrial robots, metal processing centers and high-power diesel engines. Among them, the deficits in optical instruments and analytical instruments were US$8.2 and 6.6 billion respectively. The trade deficit of metal processing centers, high-power diesel engines, etc. is relatively low, also around US$2 billion. In terms of military materials, our country relies heavily on foreign countries for civil aircraft, aero engines, and gas turbines, and has a high trade deficit. Among them, the trade deficit in the field of civil aircraft reached 14.5 billion U.S. dollars, and its dependence on foreign countries was particularly serious.
3. my country’s high-end manufacturing is highly dependent on Western countries and their allies
(1) Five Eyes Alliance : The degree of dependence on imports is low, and the dependence on aviation engines is serious
In the mid- and downstream fields, my country is dependent on the imports of the Five Eyes Alliance products. There are fewer types, mainly reflected in military products: my country mainly imports more products such as centrifuges, aerospace engines, experimental reagents, and aircraft and helicopter accessories. Among them, the import proportion of aerospace engines reached 67.08%, reflecting my country's great reliance on the Five Eyes Alliance in the field of aerospace engines.
(2) EU: Severe dependence on mechanical equipment and product parts
my country’s import dependence on the EU for mid-stream and downstream products is mainly reflected in some mechanical equipment, electrical equipment, military products, pharmaceutical consumer goods and product parts. .
Specifically: In the field of mechanical equipment, my country's import volume of semiconductor equipment, power control equipment, analytical instruments, voltage devices, inductors, liquid pumps, centrifuges, air pumps, , etc. is relatively high, of which the import volume of semiconductor equipment reached 51.3 billion US dollars; dishwashers, rubber processing devices, liquid pumps, and power control equipment are highly dependent, of which the import share of dishwashers reaches 57%. In the field of military materials, my country is extremely dependent on the EU for civil aircraft, with import volume and import proportion showing a "double high" situation. The EU and the Five Eyes Alliance have almost monopolized my country's civil aircraft import market. In the field of product parts and components, my country relies heavily on the EU for motor vehicle parts and vehicle lighting devices. The import value of motor vehicle parts exceeds 15 billion US dollars, and the two commodities account for 51.8% and 62.9% of my country's total merchandise value respectively. In addition, the import proportion of engine parts, aircraft and helicopter parts, pulleys, and valves also exceeds 40%.
(3) Japan and South Korea: Both the import volume and import proportion are high, and the semiconductor industry relies heavily on
my country's mid-stream and downstream products have a large import dependence on Japan and South Korea, which is mainly reflected in chips, electronic components , and mechanical equipment. and parts, cosmetics, and skin care products. Specifically: in the field of chips and electronic components, my country's chip imports from Japan and South Korea reached US$110.4 billion, accounting for a quarter of the total chip imports. In addition, my country’s imports from Japan and South Korea account for a relatively high proportion of optical fibers, batteries, capacitors and other products. In the field of mechanical equipment, my country relies heavily on Japan and South Korea for semiconductor equipment, with imports accounting for 45%. In addition, imports of diesel engines, analytical instruments, and industrial robots to Japan and South Korea account for more than 50%. In the field of product parts and components, my country relies heavily on Japan and South Korea for precision mechanical components such as rolling bearings, transmission shafts, gears, and engine parts.
2. How is the progress of my country's high-end manufacturing breakthrough
1. Metal processing center: high-end products are still extremely dependent on imports, and the supporting industrial chain is still lacking.
Metal processing center industry overview A metal processing center is a CNC machine tool, which is a type of machine tool equipped with a program control system. Automated machine tools. The CNC machine tool better solves the problem of complex, precise, small batch, and multi-variety parts processing. It is a flexible, high-performance automated machine tool that represents the development direction of modern machine tool control technology and is a typical Mechatronics products. The upstream suppliers of CNC machine tools are mainly in the fields of transmission systems, CNC systems , CNC machine tool bodies and parts; the midstream is various types of machine tools, mainly including metal cutting machine tools, metal forming machine tools, and special processing machine tools; the downstream application fields of CNC machine tools Extensive, including aerospace, warships, nuclear power, petrochemicals, automobiles, 3C and other fields.
The scale of the global CNC machine tool industry is growing year by year. In 2019, the scale of the global CNC machine tool industry was US$149.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4%. China Business Industry Research Institute predicts that the global CNC machine tool industry will reach US$164.8 billion in 2021. CNC machine tools are mainly divided into CNC metal cutting machine tools, CNC metal forming machine tools and CNC special processing machine tools.In 2019, the global scale of CNC metal cutting machine tools was US$78.33 billion, accounting for 52% of the total scale; the scale of CNC metal forming machine tools was US$42.07 billion, accounting for 28% of the total scale; the scale of CNC special processing machine tools was US$26.56 billion, accounting for 28% of the total scale; The total scale proportion is 18%.
Automotive and military industries are the main downstream industries of machine tools. Machine tools are the basic equipment of the manufacturing industry and are widely used in various types of manufacturing industries, such as automobiles, machinery, electronics, military industry, etc. Among the downstream application fields of CNC machine tools in my country, the automotive industry accounted for the largest proportion in 2018, accounting for approximately 40%, and the aerospace industry ranked second, accounting for approximately 17%. The two accounted for approximately 50% of the total consumption of my country's downstream industries. It is the most important downstream application area. From the perspective of the global competition landscape, Japan, Germany, and the United States are the major producers of high-end machine tools in the world. According to the prospectus of Code CNC, Germany attaches great importance to the high, precision, cutting-edge and practicality of CNC machine tools and accessories, and the research and development of various functional components. Production is highly specialized and ranks among the best in the world in terms of quality and performance; Japan focuses on the development of CNC systems, and machine tool companies focus on upstream materials and component layout, and integrate development of core products; the United States is in the design, manufacturing and basic scientific research of CNC machine tools. Faces are highly competitive. In 2019, Japan's Yamazaki Mazak, Germany's TRUMPF and the German-Japanese joint venture DMG Mori Seiki ranked among the top three global machine tool manufacturers.
Domestic substitution of metal processing centers
According to the forecast of the China Business Industry Research Institute, the scale of China's CNC machine tool industry will reach 357.6 billion yuan in 2021. At present, the mid- to low-end domestic machine tool market is basically occupied by domestic companies, but the localization rate in the high-end market is still low. In recent years, my country's high-end CNC machine tool market sales volume has continued to rise, and market demand has steadily expanded. However, my country's high-end CNC machine tool localization rate was only 6% as of 2018, an increase of 4% compared with 2014. The supply is seriously imbalanced, and there is an urgent need to accelerate the transformation and upgrading of domestic enterprises to improve quality and efficiency.
The upstream functional components of my country's high-end CNC machine tools have not yet formed a good industrial support. Most functional components are monopolized by Japanese, German, and American companies, and domestic enterprises mainly rely on outsourcing. The core components of CNC machine tools include CNC systems, transmission systems, functional components, drive systems, etc. Among them, CNC systems account for 25%-30% of the cost of CNC machine tools and are mainly monopolized by Siemens and Fanuc; transmission systems include spindles, guide rails, Lead screws, bearings, etc. are mainly occupied by some companies from Germany, Switzerland, Japan, and Taiwan; functional components include turntables, cutters, gearboxes, etc., and the global market is still occupied by companies from developed countries such as Europe, the United States, and Japan. Still come from developed countries such as Europe, Japan and the United States. Achieving the accuracy and reliability of lathe by matching or outsourcing the above core components cannot gain significant advantages in industry competition. On the one hand,
technology is limited by core component manufacturers, and on the other hand, product costs are difficult to control.
Take the CNC system as an example. The system is the brain of CNC machine tools and accounts for about 20%-40% of the cost of high-end CNC machine tools. Although my country's CNC system has achieved great development, more than 90% of the CNC systems supporting high-end CNC machine tools are foreign products. However, the functions of foreign high-end CNC systems are usually not fully open or even prohibited from being exported to China, which has become a constraint for my country's high-end CNC systems. The bottleneck of machine tool development. The mid-to-high-end domestic CNC system market is divided between Germany's Siemens, Japan's FANUC, Japan's Mitsubishi , and Germany's Heidenhain. The low-end market is dominated by domestic CNC systems, with dozens of system manufacturers competing fiercely in this small market area.
my country's main high-end CNC machine tool manufacturers include Code CNC, Guosheng Zhike, Zhejiang Heidemann, Rifa Precision Machine , Haitian Seiko , etc. Among them: Code CNC: It has various types of five-axis linkage high-end machines. Core technologies and key components of machine tools such as CNC machine tools to high-end CNC systems and key functional components It has independent intellectual property rights, advanced manufacturing technology, mature and stable supply chain, and high cost performance. It has been widely used in aerospace, aviation, energy, automobiles, molds, tools, machine tools, machinery and other fields, and has partially achieved import substitution.
Guosheng Zhike: The independently developed and produced five-axis linkage CNC machine tool - GMF4027AC (AX) five-axis linkage gantry machining center, intensively uses error control, reliability, composite complete processing, high-performance equipment component development, and Key core technologies in the fields of secondary development and optimization can realize precision The one-time forming and high-precision processing of complex spatial curved surfaces of molds has the advantages of high processing accuracy, good continuous stability, and high processing efficiency. Compared with advanced foreign products, it is still lagging behind in terms of performance and quality, but it can meet the goals. Under the circumstances of the basic needs of customers, we will fully adopt competitive strategies such as price advantage, quick response, and delivery guarantee to compete in the market. Neway CNC: It has launched more than 200 types of machine tool products in a series of large machining centers, vertical CNC machine tools, horizontal CNC machine tools, etc., covering from ordinary CNC machine tools used for processing simple mechanical parts to large-scale CNC machine tools suitable for complex and precise surface processing. Five-axis linkage CNC machine tool. Through independent research and development, the company has developed some core functional components of machine tools such as high-torque electric spindle and high-precision CNC turntable.
2. Industrial robots: Mid- and low-end products have greater economic advantages, and high-end products are in urgent need of development
Overview of the industrial robot industry. The upstream of industrial robots includes three core component control systems, servo systems, and reducers; the midstream is the robot body; the downstream is integrated systems, including single system integrators and comprehensive system integrators, which are widely used in automobiles, 3C, food, beverages, etc. industry. According to the mechanical mechanism, industrial robots can be divided into multi-joint robots, SCARA robots, rectangular coordinate robots, collaborative robots , parallel robots, cylindrical coordinate robots, among which multi-joint robots and SCARA have high accuracy requirements and have the largest market size. Together they account for more than 80% of the industrial robot market. The cost of
core components accounts for 70% of the total cost of industrial robots. Core component suppliers have the strongest bargaining power in the entire industry chain. The three most technically difficult core components of industrial robots are reducers, servo systems and controllers, which account for 35%, 25% and 10% of the cost of industrial robots respectively.
Germany and Japan firmly occupy the main market share of industrial robots. The level of industrial robots in Japan and Germany leads the world, mainly because they have first-mover advantages and technological accumulation. Japan has strong technical barriers in the research and development of key components of industrial robots ( reducer , servo motor , etc.). German industrial robots have certain advantages in raw materials, body parts and system integration. From an enterprise perspective, four companies, ABB, FANUC, KUKA and YASKAWA, are the main suppliers of industrial robots, accounting for about 50% of the world's market share.
Domestic substitution of industrial robots
China's industrial robot market size will be 42.25 billion yuan in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 18.8%, and the compound growth rate from 2017 to 2020 will be 6.2%. It is expected that by 2023, the scale of China's industrial robot industry will reach nearly 58.9 billion yuan. The current localization rate of my country's industrial robots is about 31%.
China's products are mainly mid- to low-end. In the industrial robot industry, multi-jointed robots and SCARA have high precision requirements and have the largest market size. Together, they account for more than 80% of the industrial robot market size. In 2021, the market share of foreign brands in these two models is 80% and 82% respectively. Because multi-jointed robots are a key model for downstream automobile manufacturing, and SCARA is a key model for electronic equipment manufacturing, according to the downstream industry segmentation, foreign brand robots are mainly concentrated in high-end robot industry markets such as electronics and automobiles, especially in high-end robot industries. The market for high-end industrial robots with six axes or above in high-end industries such as automobile manufacturing and welding is mainly occupied by Japanese, European and American companies. Domestic six-axis industrial robots account for less than 10% of the newly installed industrial robots in the country. The advantage areas of local industrial robot companies lie in metal processing, food and beverage, plastics and chemical products industries.
my country’s industrial robot market is still dominated by the four major foreign brands. In my country's industrial robot market in 2020, the market shares of Fanuc, Epson, ABB, and Yaskawa were 13.9%, 9.7%, 8.3%, and 7.7% respectively. Major domestic robot companies include Eston , Evert , Robot, Topstar , etc. Among them, Eston is the domestic robot company with the highest industrial robot shipments, covering everything from automation core components and The entire industrial chain of intelligent manufacturing system from motion control systems, industrial robots to robot integrated applications. In 2021, the market share of domestic industrial robot brands in domestic shipments reached 32.8%, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%. The main reasons include: on the one hand, foreign-funded enterprises have been affected by the epidemic in many aspects such as production, delivery, and after-sales service, and their comprehensive competitiveness has been reduced. Facing the opportunities brought by the epidemic, domestic robot manufacturers have rapidly expanded their capabilities with their strong technical and service capabilities. Seizing the original market for foreign capital, the localization process has been further accelerated, and the share of core industrial control products is expected to continue to accelerate; on the other hand, domestic head robot manufacturers have a good development momentum.
In terms of parts and components, currently 85% of my country's reducer market, 90% of the servo motor market, and more than 80% of the control system market are occupied by overseas brands. The core component used in industrial robots is the reducer, which is mainly divided into harmonic reducer and RV reducer . The harmonic reducer market concentration is very high, and the market is basically monopolized by Japanese companies. Among them, Hamonoko and Nippon Sanden Xinbao accounted for more than 70% of the harmonic reducer configuration in China's industrial robot market in 2021. Although the dominance of foreign and domestic investment will continue in the short term, China's outstanding local brands are also constantly rising. Green Harmonic has continued to make breakthroughs in technology and has gained a high market share.
RV The reducer market is still monopolized by foreign brands, with Nabtesco alone occupying 54.3% of the Chinese market. Among domestic listed companies, the domestic production process of double-ring transmission and Zhongdali Germany is relatively fast. Among them, double-ring transmission's newly developed series of large load and high power-to-weight ratio reducer products have been successfully used in domestic mainstream robot products in batches. It has basically achieved full coverage of robot reducer products, but the company's reducer business revenue in 2021 is only 267 million, which is still small.
The industrial robot servo system market is dominated by foreign capital. Foreign-funded manufacturers occupy the mid-to-high-end market share. Although the domestic share is increasing year by year, it is still small. The vast majority of the market share is still occupied by foreign investment. At present, industrial robot servo systems are mainly divided into three camps: Japanese, European and American, and domestic. Representative Japanese companies mainly include Panasonic, Yaskawa, Mitsubishi, Sanyo, Fuji, etc.; European and American representative companies mainly include Siemens, Schneider, Bosch Rexroth, ABB, etc.; domestic representative companies mainly include Delta, Inovance, etc. , Eston, etc.
3. Analytical instruments: There is an obvious technological gap between domestic and foreign countries, and R&D investment needs to be increased.
Analytical instrument industry overview. Analytical instruments are instruments used to measure the composition, structure and other properties of substances. They are an important part of scientific instruments and have complex and precise technical systems. Analytical instruments include chromatography, mass spectrometry, atomic spectroscopy, molecular spectroscopy, material characterization, surface science, life science instruments, laboratory automation and software, general analyzers and laboratory equipment, etc. The upstream of the industrial chain of the analytical instrument industry mainly consists of sampling systems, ion sources, analyzers, detectors, etc.; the downstream application fields are extensive. With the accelerated innovation of analytical technology in various disciplines such as physics, chemistry, optics, life sciences, etc., experimental analytical instruments It has been widely used in life sciences, medical health, new materials research, new energy, aerospace and ocean exploration, environmental protection, food safety and other industries.
analytical instruments mainly include life science instruments, surface science instruments, chromatographs, spectrometers and mass spectrometers, etc., accounting for approximately 26%, 13%, 15%, 14% and 8% of the market respectively, among which chromatographs and spectrometers and mass spectrometers are the most common analytical instruments on the market.As special equipment, analytical instruments are mainly used downstream in academia, pharmaceutical fields, biotechnology and other fields, accounting for 18%, 16% and 13% respectively. In recent years, with the development of basic industries such as machinery and information technology and the accelerated innovation of physics, chemistry, optics, life sciences and other disciplines, experimental analytical instruments have ushered in rapid development. From 2015 to 2020, the global laboratory analytical instrument market size has remained stable increase. Data show that the global experimental analysis instrument market size will be approximately US$63.8 billion in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 4.63%.
According to the 2018 global instrument company list released by "Chemical & Engineering News" under the American Chemical Society (ACS), the TOP20 are all overseas companies. Among them, the US Thermo Fisher instrument segment has sales of US$6.33 billion, ranking first; Japan's Shimadzu ranks second, with sales of US$2.18 billion, only 1/3 of the first place. Among the top 20 companies, there are eight from the United States, five from Japan, three from Germany and Switzerland, one from the United Kingdom, and no Chinese company on the list.
Domestic substitution of analytical instruments. The scale of my country's analytical instrument industry is about 65 billion, with most products imported from the United States. In 2019, China's analytical instrument market accounted for approximately 15% of the global market, which is a market size of approximately 65 billion yuan. However, most analytical instruments in my country are imported. From 2016 to 2019, my country's import rate of analytical instruments exceeded 80%, and the import source countries were mainly the United States, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom and Switzerland.
The localization rate of high-end analytical instruments is extremely low. According to interview data from China Business News, from 2016 to 2019, among the scientific instruments purchased by my country for more than 2 million yuan, the proportion of domestic equipment such as mass spectrometers, X-ray instruments, optical chromatographs, optical microscopes, etc. was less than 1.50%. Among them, In the past 3 years, not one high-end domestic optical microscope has been purchased.
Domestic analytical instrument listed companies include Concentrator Technology, Gangyan Nanoco, Tianrui Instruments , Labtech, etc. Among them: Concentrator Technology: The company has formed and accumulated experience in mass spectrometry, spectroscopy, chromatography, biology, With more than 20 new technology platforms including sample pretreatment and physical and chemical analysis, we have successfully developed and industrialized dozens of technologically advanced high-end laboratory analytical instruments that fill gaps. Puyu Technology is the only domestic manufacturer in the country that has its own triple quadrupole, filling the domestic gap in triple quadrupole tandem mass spectrometers. In 2021, EXPEC5231 gas chromatography-triple quadrupole mass spectrometry, EXPEC5310 liquid chromatography-triple quadrupole mass spectrometry, EXPEC7910 quadrupole time-of-flight tandem mass spectrometry ICP-MS, TRACE8000 chemical ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry Instrument , Calibus handheld laser induced breakdown spectrometer, EXPEC550 Several high-end laboratory analytical instruments, such as the pressurized fluid extractor and the EXPEC570 fully automatic solid-phase extraction instrument, were launched and put on the market, quickly entering the market segment and driving sales growth.
4. Automotive electronic control system: localization is in its infancy, and domestic substitution of motor controllers is progressing rapidly.
Automotive electronic control system product industry overview. Automobile electronic control refers to the automobile electronic control system. It is basically composed of sensors, electronic controllers (ECU), drivers and control program software. It is used in conjunction with the mechanical system of the vehicle and uses cables or radio waves to transmit information to each other. "Mechatronics integration". In a broad sense, it can be divided into various categories such as engine electronic control system, brake control system, comfort control system, and multimedia system. This section mainly introduces three types of electronic control system products that are not highly domestically produced and rely heavily on external sources: electric vehicle electronic control system, electric power steering system, and brake-by-wire system.
Electric vehicle electronic control system is the main console of electric vehicles. It mainly includes three common subsystems: vehicle controller, motor controller and battery management system. Through the central control function of the vehicle controller, it relies on the motor controller and The battery management system controls two major systems: battery and motor; Electric Power Steering (Electric Power Steering, referred to as EPS) is a power steering system that directly relies on the motor to provide auxiliary torque. It mainly consists of a torque sensor, a vehicle speed sensor, It is composed of an electric motor, a reduction mechanism and an electronic control unit (ECU); brake-by-wire is mainly divided into wire parking brake (EPB) and wire-controlled service brake, of which wire-controlled service brake includes electronic hydraulic brake system (EHB) ) and electromechanical braking system (EMB).
With the development of the new energy vehicle industry, the industry scale of electric vehicle electronic control systems has expanded rapidly. Its market size has increased from 5.68 billion yuan in 2015 to 21.4 billion yuan in 2021, with a compound annual growth rate of more than 25%. It is expected to be It will reach 59.4 billion yuan in 2025. The vehicle controller market size has reached 15 billion yuan, of which the third-level vehicle controller used in electric vehicle L2 autonomous driving services will be shipped 2 million units in 2021, and the market size will reach 2.11 billion yuan. The motor controller market size is 1.3 billion yuan, and the battery management system market size has reached 5 billion yuan.
In the field of electric power steering systems, the Chinese market has changed rapidly in the past few years. According to the latest research from Hengzhou Bozhi, the global electric power steering system (EPS) market size will be US$15.897 billion in 2021, of which the Chinese market will reach US$4.43 billion. In recent years, China's EPS market penetration rate has increased year by year. In 2019, it was about 80%, which is slightly higher than the global market level of 78%. However, there is still a certain gap with the EPS penetration rate of about 90% in Japan, Europe and other automobile markets. In the field of online braking, my country's park-by-wire parking brake (EPB) market size is 15 billion yuan in 2021, and is expected to reach 22 billion yuan in 2025, with a CAGR of approximately 10%. With the gradual mass production of Bethel EHB products and Great Wall EMB products in the next two years, the market size of the drive-by-wire brake is expected to reach 12.9 billion yuan in 2025, with a CAGR of 87%.
Domestic substitution of automotive electronic control system products. In terms of electric vehicle electronic control systems, at this stage, my country's electric vehicle electronic control system industry has not yet formed a clear and stable market competition pattern. Local companies are currently divided into two categories: one is new energy vehicle OEMs represented by BYD and BAIC New Energy, which rely on their rich experience in vehicle and parts manufacturing to embark on the road to independence in electronic control systems. The road to research and development. Among them, BYD established its subsidiary Fudi Power in March 2020 to seek independent breakthroughs in automobile power systems. Currently, its electric drive system research and development has reached the fourth generation, including the EHS electric hybrid system including drive motors and motor controllers. It has been used in DM-i series models, realizing self-supply of drive motors, motor controllers, and three-in-one electric drive systems. The market share of
motor controller reached 23.56% in the first quarter of 2022, ranking first in the market. The first type is third-party electronic control system integrators represented by Shanghai Electric Drive and Inovance Technology . Among them, Shanghai Electric Drive’s cumulative output of electric drive products has exceeded 1 million units in April 2022. Its electric drive systems, drives Motor sales in 2020 ranked among the top ten domestic manufacturers. Inovance Technology obtained the designation of a domestic mainstream passenger car company in 2018, and its electric drive system sales ranked second after BYD in 2020. The future development prospects are good.
Among them, the vehicle controller industry has a high degree of concentration. 95% of the Chinese market is occupied by well-known foreign companies such as Bosch , Continental , Aptiv , Faurecia, Hella and other well-known foreign companies. Chinese local manufacturers For example, Huawei, Desay SV, Jingwei Hengrun , Joyson Electronics, etc. only account for about 5%. Among them, the core automotive-grade MCU chips are monopolized by foreign companies. Among the top ten MCU chip manufacturers in the world, only one Chinese company, Microchip Technology, accounts for only 3% of the market share. However, as the world has fallen into an MCU shortage crisis since 2020, domestic substitution has ushered in a good entry opportunity.As of May 2021, BYD Semiconductor's mass production of automotive-grade MCUs has exceeded 10 million units, and its products have been adopted by Great Wall, GAC and other companies.
In the field of motor controllers, in recent years, China has vigorously promoted the localization process of motor controllers. The core of the motor controller - IGBT module has gradually realized import substitution. IGBT modules produced by BYD, CRRC Times, Star Semiconductor All have been put into mass production. Among them, the performance of Star Semiconductor's automotive-grade IGBT module products is close to the performance level of Infineon's products, and it will be equipped with 200,000 and 600,000 new energy vehicles in 2020 and 2021 respectively. In addition, current sensor and capacitor technologies have also improved dramatically. The motor controller has basically achieved overall localization. Except for Tesla, Nidec, and United Electronics, the top ten domestic motor controller sales companies in the first quarter of 2022 are all local manufacturers.
In terms of electric power steering systems (EPS), our country’s market is currently dominated by foreign capital and Sino-foreign joint ventures. In 2021, the CR5 of my country’s EPS system is as high as 75.58%. They are all foreign-funded or Sino-foreign joint ventures. Nidec and Bosch of Germany are EPS The absolute leader in the industry. Among them, Nidec controls nearly half of the EPS motor market share, while Bosch of Germany occupies 40% of the market share in the EPS electronic control market. The two firmly control the EPS core component market. Among domestic companies, Yilida leads the domestic EPS industry. It developed the first domestic EPS with independent intellectual property rights as early as 2001, and its current annual production capacity reaches 1.8 million sets. In addition, Nexteer, which is actually controlled by AVIC Group, also has strong capabilities. It has a complete EPS product matrix, and its self-developed high-availability EPS is suitable for L2-L5 autonomous vehicles. It has already provided services to global Robo-Taxi giants Waymo and The L4 driverless taxis cooperated with Chrysler have a place in the field of autonomous driving.
In terms of online parking brakes (EPB), foreign companies such as Continental, ZF TRW, and Advics occupy major domestic market shares. In 2020, the shares of the three are 28%/27%/14% respectively. Among domestic independent EPB manufacturers, Bethel achieved mass production of EPB systems earlier (in 2012) and has a higher market share; Asia-Pacific started later, achieving mass production of EPB in 2016, and its market share follows closely behind.
In terms of electronic hydraulic braking systems (EHB), domestic manufacturers are making rapid progress in research and development of One-Box products. Among them, Bethel has achieved independent supply of One-Box, and the first product WCBS has been officially mass-produced in early June 2021; Nason Electronics’ One-Box products are currently in cooperation with BAIC New Energy, BYD, Changan, Great Wall, Baidu, etc. A number of mainstream vehicle manufacturers and autonomous driving companies have reached cooperation, with more than 30 supporting development projects. Regarding electromechanical braking systems (EMB), there are currently no large-scale mass-produced products from domestic manufacturers. On April 21, 2021, Seiko Motors, a subsidiary of Great Wall Motors, released an EMB brake that was independently developed and planned to be mass-produced in 2023. The system is currently the EMB product closest to mass production in my country.
5, military equipment
(1) Aviation engines: Britain and the United States monopolize the civil aviation engine market, and my country has certain production capabilities in the field of military aviation engines.
Overview of the aviation engine industry. Aviation engines are the core components of aircraft, accounting for approximately 20%-30% of the value of the entire aircraft. Aviation engines usually consist of compressors, combustion chambers, turbines, exhaust devices and other systems. The upstream of aviation engines includes high-end metal materials, power control systems and engine parts. Aero-engine materials mainly include high-temperature alloys, titanium alloys, ceramic matrix composites CMC and other alloys. Aero-engine parts include disc shafts, fan shafts, turbine discs, shafts, integral blisks/impellers, turbine casings and fan casings, etc. Aero-engine subsystems include control systems, air systems, mechanical systems, nacelle systems, etc.
The global military aerospace engine market exceeds US$10 billion, and the commercial aerospace engine market is nearly US$140 billion. In terms of military aviation engines, according to the international market consulting company Global Data, the global procurement amount for military aviation engines reached US$10.8 billion in 2018 (excluding maintenance service costs).Cumulative global spending on military aircraft engines will reach $145.4 billion over the next ten years. Growing geopolitical competition and engine modification and replacement programs will be the major driving factors for the growth of the military aerospace engine market. In terms of civil aviation engines, according to the "Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China Market Forecast Annual Report (2021-2040)" released by Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China, the market demand for aviation engines will maintain a long-term sustained growth trend. In the next 20 years, total global commercial aviation engine deliveries are expected to reach more than 80,000 units, with a market value of more than US$1.3 trillion. Taking into account the delivery of new engines and the retirement of old engines, it is expected that the global commercial aerospace engine market will double its current size by 2039, growing from approximately 5.4 units in 2019 to more than 100,000 units.
Global military aviation development pattern: Only a few companies among the five permanent members of the Security Council have R&D and production capabilities. The United States is the leader in development and has given birth to world aviation development giants such as GE and PW. The countries currently capable of developing and producing three generations of mainstream aero engines are mainly the five permanent members of the Security Council: the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, and China. Ukraine, which has received the military industrial heritage of the former Soviet Union, also has certain engine development and production capabilities. Its aero engine products are mainly used in for export. According to the statistics of "World Air Forces 2021", the number of military aviation engines produced by the five permanent members of the Security Council accounts for more than 90% of the total number of military aviation engines currently installed in the world.
Global commercial engine landscape: Britain and the United States dominate the global commercial aviation engine market. The oligopoly pattern of the commercial aviation engine industry is even more obvious. Currently, only the United States and the United Kingdom have technological and commercial advantages in the world. The leading companies are General Electric (GE) of the United States, Pratt & Whitney (PW) of the United States, and Rolls-Royce (R&R) of the United Kingdom. Three companies. According to the statistics of "Commercial Engines 2021", a total of 1,374 civil aviation engines were delivered globally in 2020. Four companies, the US GE, PW, the UK R&R, and CFM (the US GE/French SAFRAN joint venture), accounted for 100% of the market share, showing a high degree of market share. Characteristics of oligopoly.
Domestic substitution situation of aviation engines. In terms of military aeroengines, after nearly 70 years of development, my country has established a relatively complete aeroengine development and production system, with serial development and production capabilities for multiple types of engines such as turboprop, turbojet, turbofan, and turboshaft. At present, my country's main combat aircraft such as fighters, attack aircraft, bombers, and fighter-bombers in service have used domestic turbofan engines in batches. Only some third-generation fighters are still equipped with imported engines. In terms of transport aircraft, the turboprop engines used by the Y-7, Y-8 and other transport aircraft are all domestically produced. Only the Y-20 is still equipped with imported engines. In terms of helicopters, with the maturity of overall technologies such as Z-9, Z-8 and Z-10, my country has realized the serial development of turbo-8, turbo-6 and turbo-16 engines based on the introduction. At present, my country's existing engine pedigree has gradually matured. At present, my country's main aircraft in service: J-10C, J-11B, J-16 and J-20 have all been equipped with domestic engines, and the J-10C fighter jets exported to Pakistan this year also use Chinese-made turbofans - 10B "Taihang" engine.
In terms of civil aviation engines, in 2016, China Aviation Development Corporation was confirmed as the supplier of C919 domestic engines; in 2017, the Yangtze 1000A core engine was assembled; in May 2018, the first ignition was successfully started, and the core speed reached the design requirements. This is the first major breakthrough in the development of Yangtze River 1000A. At present, the Yangtze River series engines are still in the research process. Compared with mature Western aero-engine giants, my country is still in a blank state in terms of civil aviation turbofan engines, and the gap is obvious. However, with the emergence of China Aviation Industry Corporation and the CJ1000A, our country will have the ability to challenge the world's largest aero-engine market. An important opportunity to develop domestically produced large aircraft and aero-engine industries.
(2) Gas turbine: The key core technologies of heavy-duty gas turbines need to be broken through, and hybrid hydrogen gas turbines have suddenly emerged.
Overview of the gas turbine industry.A gas turbine is an internal combustion power machine that uses continuously flowing gas as the working medium to drive the impeller to rotate at high speed, converting the energy of the fuel into useful work. It is a rotating impeller heat engine and is widely used in power generation, ship and locomotive power, and pipelines. Supercharging and other energy, national defense, transportation fields. The gas turbine industry chain mainly consists of upstream raw materials, midstream parts and components, and downstream complete machine manufacturing. The upstream raw materials mainly include the production and manufacturing of high-temperature alloys, titanium alloys, composite materials, aluminum alloys and other materials. The midstream parts and components process then casts, forge or other process operations on the materials to make blades, discs, shafts and other parts, and then the downstream components The complete machine manufacturing enterprise assembles each component into a complete gas turbine.
According to the output power, gas turbines can be divided into three categories: micro, light and heavy. Among them, micro and light gas turbines can be modified from aircraft engines, with power usually within 50MW, and can be used in industrial power generation, ship power, pipeline supercharging, tank locomotives, distributed power generation and combined heat and power generation; heavy gas turbines with power above 50MW, Mainly used as fixed power generation units on land, such as urban power grids.
According to Statista statistics, the global gas turbine market size in 2020 was US$22.54 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.47%. From the perspective of the gas turbine market of different powers, according to Release Wire data, 1-40 MW gas turbines and heavy-duty gas turbines above 120 MW accounted for the largest market share among global gas turbines in 2020, indicating that these two models have the highest demand. Almost both accounted for 39%. Gas turbines of 40-120 MW have the smallest market share, accounting for 22%. Heavy-duty gas turbines are generally classified into Class E, Class F, and Class H based on turbine inlet temperature and pressure ratio. Currently, the most advanced generation of heavy-duty gas turbines in the world are the H-class developed by General Electric in the United States and the J-class developed by Mitsubishi Hitachi in Japan. In addition, the mainstream heavy-duty gas turbines in the market are E-class and F-class, and only a few companies in the world can produce such high-level gas turbines.
At present, the global gas turbine market is mainly monopolized by three companies: General Electric (GE) of the United States, Siemens of Germany, and Mitsubishi (MHPS) of Japan. The three companies together account for about 90% of the global gas turbine market share. In particular, the American company GE holds about 50% of the market share. It is worth noting that although the US GE has been the leader in gas turbine manufacturing in the past few decades, the sudden emergence of MHPS has seriously impacted its market position. In the first quarter of 2020, Japan's Mitsubishi's global orders were 2,638 MW, a year-on-year increase of 19.7%, and its global market share reached 28.5%. Its market share ranked first in terms of power generation power in megawatts.
Domestic substitution situation of gas turbines. China now has the ability to develop its own light-duty gas turbines, but heavy-duty gas turbines still basically rely on imports. For a long time, cutting-edge technologies such as heavy-duty gas turbine design, manufacturing, and testing have been completely monopolized by a few companies such as Germany's Siemens (SIEMENS), the United States' General Electric (GE), and Japan's Mitsubishi (MHI). At present, domestic heavy-duty gas turbines have not yet fully mastered the hot-end components of heavy-duty gas turbines. Cutting-edge technologies such as manufacturing, maintenance and control have not yet formed a systematic and comprehensive R&D, design, testing and maintenance system. Compared with the above-mentioned international advanced heavy-duty gas turbine companies, the gap is more than 30 years.
There are still many key core technologies for China's heavy-duty gas turbines that need to be broken through. There are major bottlenecks in gas-fired power generation technology and equipment. There is a risk of being "stuck" in many areas such as heavy-duty gas turbine design, manufacturing, commissioning, operation and maintenance. In terms of models, the main models of China's heavy-duty gas turbines are currently imported and locally manufactured F-class and E-class gas turbines. However, the key core technologies of E-class/F-class gas turbines are still used by General Electric of the United States, Siemens of Germany, and Mitsubishi Hitachi of Japan. monopolized. At present, there is no H/J-class gas turbine project completed and put into operation in China. The H-class heavy-duty gas turbine jointly built by Shanghai Electric and Ansaldo in 2019 should be China’s first H-class heavy-duty gas turbine.
The localization rate of parts has increased significantly, but the value needs to be improved.In the six years from 2001 to 2007, China introduced more than 60 sets of E-class and F-class heavy-duty gas turbines totaling 20 million kilowatts from four consortiums: Harbin Gas-American General Motors, Dongfang Gas-Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Shanghai Gas-Siemens, and Southern Gas-American General Motors. . Through this process, the four major domestic heavy-duty gas turbine manufacturing companies have mastered the cold-end component manufacturing and complete machine assembly technology of E-class and F-class heavy-duty gas turbines. However, the core design and hot-end component manufacturing technology are still monopolized by foreign parties and must not be Not mainly dependent on imports.
It was not until 2019 that China completed the manufacturing of the first-stage moving blades, stator blades and combustion chambers of the F-class 300MW gas turbine. The successful ignition test of the first F-class 50MW heavy-duty gas turbine prototype of Dongfang Electric Group showed that China had made a breakthrough It has acquired a series of key core technologies for "stuck necks", initially acquired technical capabilities for manufacturing high-temperature components of heavy-duty gas turbines, and initially possessed the full-process capability to independently develop E-class/F-class heavy-duty gas turbines. Judging from the progress of localization of key core components of heavy-duty gas turbines, taking the mainstream F-class heavy-duty gas turbines in the market as an example, the current localization rate of China's heavy-duty gas turbine production and manufacturing technology has increased significantly, and the localization rate of China's gas turbine parts can reach 80% - 90%, but the localization proportion of the value of gas turbine parts is less than 70%.
Hybrid hydrogen gas turbine has suddenly emerged. With the goal of "carbon neutrality" proposed, gas turbine manufacturers around the world, such as GE, Siemens, Mitsubishi Hitachi and other companies, have set their sights on hydrogen-rich fuel combustion technology and have carried out a large amount of research and verification work. my country's hydrogen combustion technology has a certain industrial foundation, which is not much different from foreign technical levels. At present, the localization rate of hydrogen-fired turbines with a hydrogen mixing concentration of 60% has reached 100%. Its components are all based on the domestic supply chain and have completely independent intellectual property rights.
(3) Domestic large aircraft: C919 has embarked on a new journey of domestic production, and the localization rate of the industrial chain needs to be improved
Domestic large aircraft industry overview "Large aircraft" is not a professional term, nor is it an internationally accepted term. Since the Ministry of Science and Technology was entrusted by the State Council to establish the "Large Aircraft Project Demonstration Team" in 2003, the term has been widely used in China. Large aircraft are generally defined as: transport aircraft with a take-off weight of more than 100 tons, including civilian passenger aircraft with more than 150 seats and military aircraft with a single flight range of 3,000 kilometers. What we usually call large aircraft mainly refers to large civil aviation aircraft, that is, mainline passenger aircraft in the civil field. They are divided into two types: single-aisle narrow-body aircraft and dual-aisle wide-body aircraft.
The aircraft body, engine and airborne system are the three major components of the aircraft. Large aircraft can be divided into aircraft fuselage, landing gear, engine, electromechanical system, avionics system, interior decoration, etc. The fuselage includes the front fuselage, middle fuselage, rear fuselage, wings, and tail, accounting for about 30% of the overall cost of the large aircraft; the engine and power system account for about 25%; the electromechanical system includes power supply, fuel, hydraulic, second Power, wheel brake, environmental control and life support systems account for about 15%-20%; avionics systems include communication systems, navigation systems, flight management systems, integrated display systems, core processing systems, airborne maintenance systems, etc., accounting for approximately occupy the plane 15%-20%; in addition there are about 5% landing gear and 4% interior. The industrial chain of large passenger aircraft is long and complex. After dividing the value of the manufacturing links, it can be found that airframe manufacturing, engines, and airborne equipment account for 30%-35%, 20%-25%, and 25%-30 respectively. %, and other systems such as interiors account for 10%-15%.
According to the "Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China Market Forecast Annual Report (2021-2040)" released by COMAC in September 2021, the global aviation market will return to its pre-epidemic state in 2023, and global passenger turnover (RPKs) will increase from It will grow at an annual rate of 3.9% and reach 19.1 trillion passenger kilometers in 2040. The annual report points out that based on the global economy maintaining an average annual growth rate of approximately 2.6% until 2040, it is expected that more than 41,429 new aircraft will be delivered globally in the next two decades, with a value of approximately US$6.1 trillion (based on 2020 list prices). For replacement and support fleet development. By 2040, the global passenger aircraft fleet is expected to reach 45,397 aircraft.
is a duopoly, with Boeing and Airbus occupying about 90% of the market.At present, typical representatives of the world's large aircraft include Airbus's A300, A330, A350, and A380 and Boeing's B747, B777, and B787. The global large aircraft market is basically monopolized by Airbus and Boeing. According to a report by Forbes in February 2019, as of that year, Boeing and Airbus’ global market shares were 43% and 45% respectively.
In terms of aircraft types, large mainline passenger aircraft can be divided into two types: narrow-body and wide-body. Narrow-body passenger aircraft are mainly used for medium and short-distance flights. The main models are the A-320 series (Airbus) and B-737 series. (Boeing); wide-body passenger aircraft have higher technical content, are more difficult to develop, and are more profitable, mainly A-330 series (Airbus) and B-787 series (Boeing). According to data from "World Airliner Census 2018", the duopoly in the narrow-body passenger aircraft field accounts for 67.6% of the total stock market and approximately 85.5% in value. Airbus's total value is 43.5%, and Boeing's total value is 42%. Competition is relatively fierce; In the field of wide-body passenger aircraft, only Boeing and Airbus are capable of producing them. Boeing accounts for 63% of the stock value and Airbus accounts for 63%. 37% share.
Domestic substitution of domestically produced large aircraft. The domestic large aircraft market is developing rapidly. According to the "COMAC Market Forecast Annual Report (2021-2040)" released by COMAC in September 2021, in the next two decades, China's aviation market will receive 9,084 passenger aircraft with more than 50 seats, worth approximately US$1.4 trillion. Among them, there are 953 turbofan regional aircraft with more than 50 seats, 6295 single-aisle jet aircraft with more than 120 seats, and 1836 dual-aisle jet aircraft with more than 250 seats. By 2040, China's fleet will reach 9,957 aircraft, accounting for 22% of the global passenger aircraft fleet, becoming the world's largest single aviation market.
From Yunshi to ARJ21 to C919, accelerating domestic substitution in the industry chain. In 1980, the Yun-10 was born, completing the breakthrough of domestically produced large aircraft from 0 to 1. However, in April 1985, McDonnell Douglas signed a final assembly contract with Shanghai Aviation Industry Corporation for 25 MD-82s, and the assembly of the third Y-13, which was more expensive to manufacture, was shelved. During the "10th Five-Year Plan" period, regional aircraft were included in the 12 major high-tech projects, and 50-70-seat regional aircraft with independent intellectual property rights became the main direction of development - the ARJ21 project was launched.
In 2008, on the eve of the first flight of ARJ21, facing commercial operations that had already seen hope, AVIC spun off the main body of the civil aircraft business and established COMAC separately. In the same year, COMAC took over the ARJ21 project and began to promote subsequent flight tests, airworthiness certification and market development. In 2017, the test aircraft C919 successfully made its first flight. On May 14, 2022, the C919, a production-type private large aircraft independently developed by my country, successfully made its first flight, marking that my country has become the fourth country in the world with the ability to independently manufacture large trunk passenger aircraft. The scale and standardization of large aircraft manufacturing also promotes the development of the upstream and downstream aviation manufacturing industry chain and promotes the industrial cluster effect.
The fuselage manufacturing has completely independent intellectual property rights, and the engine and avionics system need to be developed. The complete aircraft manufacturing of the C919 has completely independent intellectual property rights. It is designed by COMAC and then manufactured by domestic companies such as XAC, Chengdu Aircraft, Shenyang Aircraft and Hongdu Airlines. The engine system, which accounts for 22% of the cost of parts, is provided by CFM, a company established by General Electric of the United States and Safran of France with a capital ratio of 50% each. As for the avionics system, which accounts for 17%, the C919’s avionics system is provided by AVIAGE SYSTEMS, a joint venture between GE and AVIC. In addition, most of the other seven components are also technologies or products provided by Sino-foreign joint ventures. According to the agency's cost analysis, the localization rate of C919 reaches nearly 60%.
6, chip
(1) Chip manufacturing: The industrial chain is lagging behind in all aspects, and domestic substitution is accelerating.
The global competitive landscape of the chip industry chain
The main supply chain of chip manufacturing is divided into three links: "design-manufacturing-packaging", and the auxiliary industry chain It also includes EDA software and IP cores for chip design, semiconductor equipment and semiconductor materials. Among them, the manufacturing, design, and equipment links have high added value. The United States, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Europe, and Mainland China are the main participants in the global semiconductor supply chain.
chip manufacturing is mainly divided into foundry mode and IDM mode, mainly dominated by Taiwan, South Korea, European and American companies. Among them, the world's major foundries include TSMC, Samsung, Global Wafer, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, UMC, etc., and major IDM companies include Intel, Renesas Electronics, STMicroelectronics, Microchip Technology, NXP, etc. my country's chip foundry companies, led by SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor, account for 15% of global production capacity and are mainly distributed in mature process fields. The production capacity of the chip packaging and testing process is mainly distributed in Taiwan, the United States, mainland China, and South Korea. Among them, outsourced professional packaging and testing companies include ASE, Amkor, Changdian Technology, Powertech, Tongfu Microelectronics, Huatian Technology, UTAC, etc. IDM or foundry companies mainly include Intel, Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron Technology, and TSMC. Semiconductor equipment is used in various aspects such as silicon wafer manufacturing, chip manufacturing, packaging and testing, and photomask manufacturing. The equipment market is dominated by the United States, Japan, and the Netherlands. my country's self-sufficiency rate is low, and equipment is the core of my country's semiconductor bottleneck.
Semiconductor materials can be divided into wafers, electron gases, photomasks, photoresists, polishing materials, sputtering targets, and wet electronic chemicals. Among them, wafers and electronic gas are of higher value. Japan, the United States, and Germany are the major suppliers of semiconductor materials in the world. Japan accounts for more than 50% of the global output value in wafers and photomask materials. EDA software is used for semiconductor design. The United States dominates the global EDA market. The core companies are Synopsys, Cadence Electronics, and Siemens EDA (acquired Mentor Graphic in 2016). IP core-assisted chip design is a mature design of circuit modules with independent functions in some chips. The core companies are ARM, Synopsys, Cadence Electronics, and SST.
The process of localization of the chip industry chain. In the field of chip manufacturing, my country's localization level is gradually improving and it already has 14nm-level chip mass production capabilities, but the yield rate needs to be improved. From an enterprise perspective, the "N+1" and "N+2" processes developed by SMIC using existing DUV equipment have made all-round progress in the 14nm process, and are only one step away from the 7nm process standard. remote. In terms of memory chip manufacturing, Ziguang Guowei's DRAM chip factory has been established, and Hefei Changxin has also continued to develop mid-to-high-end DRAM chip manufacturing technology. It has broken through the 19-nanometer process and is basically capable of manufacturing mid-range DRAM chips.
In the field of semiconductor equipment, domestic equipment has made certain breakthroughs in cleaning, etching, thin film deposition and other fields, but photolithography equipment is seriously stuck. In the field of cleaning, China already has the relevant technology to produce 8-12-inch high-end single-chip wet cleaning equipment and tank-type wet cleaning equipment. Domestic equipment accounts for 20% of the domestic wafer fab market, and it is actively exploring overseas markets and has received orders from leading international companies such as South Korea's Hynix. In terms of etching equipment, domestic 12-inch high-end etching equipment has been used in advanced chip production lines from 65nm to 5nm by internationally renowned customers. At the same time, etching equipment smaller than 5nm is also in the active development process. In terms of thin film deposition equipment, in some emerging special process tracks, due to the close start time, the technological gap between domestic equipment and international companies is small. In the field of lithography, ASML of the Netherlands monopolizes the global supply of high-end lithography machines. Due to very high technical barriers, domestic companies still need to continue to accumulate.
In the field of semiconductor materials, my country's domestic substitution of large-size silicon wafers, photoresists, electronic special gases, wet electronic chemicals, etc. continues to accelerate. On large-scale silicon wafers, the current 300mm (12-inch) silicon wafers of Shanghai Silicon Industry have passed customer certification, realizing the batch supply of 300mm semiconductor silicon wafers for 14nm process node applications. The company currently has 300,000 pieces/month. 12-inch semiconductor silicon wafer production capacity. Zhonghuan has achieved large-scale mass production of all 4-12-inch semiconductor silicon wafers, and has independent technical solutions for various 12-inch products. In the field of photoresist, semiconductor photoresist accounts for only 2% of China's photoresist industry chain. The technology of the company Zhongnan University of Optoelectronics is relatively leading. It has built a 25-ton production line ArF photoresist production line, and its product performance can meet the 90nm requirements. -14nm integrated circuit manufacturing requirements.
In the field of electronic special gases, among hundreds of electronic special gas varieties, my country has basically achieved self-sufficiency in gases such as sulfur hexafluoride and hexafluoroethane. Among them, the domestic production capacity of sulfur hexafluoride exceeds 50% of the world, and the self-sufficiency rate of hexafluoroethane exceeds 60%. It has made major technological breakthroughs in nitrogen trifluoride, ultrapure ammonia, germane and other varieties. Among them, the domestic production capacity of nitrogen trifluoride has reached nearly one-third, basically matching the domestic market demand. In the field of wet electronic chemicals, domestic companies are still far behind the world's overall level, but in recent years they have approached the international leading level in individual fields, and the localization rate in the semiconductor industry is close to 30%. The hydrogen peroxide and ammonia water technologies of some enterprises have broken through the international G5 level; technologies such as ultra-clean and high-purity ammonia water for very large-scale integrated circuits have broken through foreign technology monopoly.
(2) Radio frequency chip: There is no complete localization capability, and the filter needs to break through the global competition pattern of the
radio frequency chip industry chain. The radio frequency chip is a chip that can convert radio frequency signals and digital signals. It determines the communication modes that mobile terminals can support, received signal strength, call stability, transmission power and other important performance indicators, which directly affects the end user experience. In addition to communication systems, wireless connection systems (WiFi, GPS, Bluetooth, FM, NFC, etc.) in handheld devices also have strong demand for RF front-end chips. The downstream segments of civilian radio frequency chips are mainly mobile terminals (mainly mobile phones) and communication base stations, among which mobile phones are the main downstream market. According to data from QY Research, the global RF front-end market size was US$16.957 billion in 2019, with annual growth rates of more than 10% from 2011 to 2019. Yole predicts that the RF front-end market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11% from 2019 to 2025, reaching a market size of approximately US$25.4 billion by 2025.
In terms of composition, a radio frequency chip includes RF transceiver, power amplifier (PA), low noise amplifier (LNA), filter, radio frequency switch (Switch), antenna tuning switch (Tuner) and other components. According to QYR Electronic Research Center data, among RF front-end chips, the global market shares of filters, power amplifiers (PA), RF switches, and low noise amplifiers (LNA) in 2020 are 59.01%, 18.68%, 11.23%, and 8.78% respectively. %.
RF chip domestic substitution situation. Domestic manufacturers have been involved in the field of RF switches and LNA earlier, and their technical level is relatively advanced. As early as 2010, Zhuosheng Microtransformed into the RF switch and LNA track. In 2014, Zhuosheng micro-produced its first radio frequency switch, with annual sales exceeding 100 million units. We have established strong cooperative relationships with major mobile terminal product manufacturers such as Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo and Huawei. Zhuosheng Micro is one of the first companies in the world to use 12-inch 65nm RF SOI process wafers to produce high-performance antenna tuning switch chips. It is also the first domestic company to launch sub-6GHz high-frequency products and radio frequency module products suitable for 5G communication standards. One of the enterprises. In 2020, Zhuosheng Micro successfully captured 8% of the market share in the global LNA and switch market.
RF PA domestic alternative acceleration. After years of development, there are more than 20 RF PA device suppliers in China, including Enremicro, Huawei HiSilicon, Unisoc, Zhuosheng Micro, and Weijie Chuangxin. Among domestic brand mobile phone companies, the domestic production rate of RF PA is the highest at 73% and the lowest at 25%. The domestic ODM mobile phone companies’ RF PA localization rate averages over 80%. In March 2020, the first batch of OPPO K7x mobile terminals equipped with Huizhiwei 5G PA modules were mass-produced, using domestic 5G radio frequency front-end integrated transceiver modules for the first time. In 2021, Weijie Chuangxin and Huizhiwei launched them at the same time n77/78 transceiver module chip used in 5G UHB single frequency solution. This product is 5G Universal radio frequency module for mobile phones has a wide range of applications, covering high, middle and low-end 5G mobile phones. The
filter has become the last piece of the puzzle for domestic radio frequency chips and has already made a breakthrough. Chinese SAW manufacturers include Maijie Technology, Deqing Huaying, Haoda Electronics, etc. Among them, the SAW products jointly produced by Maijie Technology and CLP 26 have entered Huawei, TCL, Wingtech and other companies; Haoda Electronics’ SAW products have entered the Supply chains of mobile phone manufacturers such as ZTE and Meizu.In 2021, Maijie Technology reached a cooperation with Huaxin Wireless Technology, which successfully taped out the FullB41BAW filter, and established "Maijie Ruixin Technology Co., Ltd." to engage in the R&D and production of BAW filters.
(3) Memory: Industry giants monopolize, domestic substitution process is rapid
Memory industry overview and global competition pattern. Semiconductor memory is a memory device that uses semiconductor circuits as storage media and is used to store binary data. It is the mainstream memory on the market and is widely used in various electronic products. According to WSTS statistics, the global memory market reached US$117.482 billion in 2020, accounting for 26.68% of semiconductors. In the memory industry, DRAM and Flash are the most important product types, accounting for 95% of total memory revenue.
DRAM is dynamic random access memory, which accounts for the largest revenue among memory segment products. It can be divided into mainstream DRAM and niche DRAM. According to the forecast of the flash memory market (CHINA FLASH MARKET, CMF), the global DRAM market size will be approximately US$94.5 billion in 2021, accounting for 56% of the revenue in the storage industry. From a market perspective, DRAM can be divided into mainstream DRAM and niche DRAM. The difference between the two is that mainstream DRAM is the mainstream specification in the market and has strong production standardization. Most niche DRAMs are DRAM products that have been retired from mainstream specifications. They are relatively low-end and account for about 10% of all memory. According to Trendforce statistics, the global niche DRAM market (consumer, industrial control, etc.) will be about 90% in 2021. billion dollars. From the demand side, mainstream DRAM is mainly used in PCs, mobile phones, servers, game consoles, etc., while niche DRAM is mainly used in consumer electronics-related products such as LCD TVs, digital set-top boxes, players, and security.
The mainstream DRAM market is highly concentrated, mainly dominated by Samsung, Micron, and Hynix. The market share of the three accounts for 94% of the total market share. Samsung ranks first in the industry with 42%, and Hynix and Micron account for 29%. %, followed by 23% market share. Flash is read-only memory, and NAND Flash is a mainstream product, mainly used in mobile phones, PCs, servers and other fields. Flash memory can be divided into NAND Flash and NOR Flash. Among them, NAND has become the mainstream of the flash memory market due to its higher storage capacity, lower unit cost and faster writing speed. It has more advantages when storing data and is widely used in mobile phones, PCs, servers and other fields. It will be the top three in 2020. The market share of NAND consumption is 37%, 28%, and 19% respectively. NOR is more used in small computing application scenarios because of its ability to run code on-chip. According to statistics from Yole, the global NAND market size was US$44 billion in 2019 and is expected to reach US$82 billion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of nearly 11%.
memory domestic substitution situation. Overall, China has initially completed its strategic layout in the field of memory chips. However, due to China's late start and technological blockade, its market share is small, and there is still a lot of room for development before full domestic substitution.
my country's domestic storage replacement faces serious patent technology blockade. GigaDevice, the leader in the domestic memory industry, disclosed in the 2021 company annual report that "the company has obtained 834 authorized patents, including 787 Chinese patents, 30 U.S. patents, and 9 European national patents." According to the latest U.S. commercial patent database (IFI Claims) report, the number of Samsung Electronics’ patents is 76,600 (also including many other patents such as foundry, panel, mobile phone, etc.), and SK Hynix’s is 7934 units, Micron’s is 7,488 units. The patent gap makes it extremely easy for domestic manufacturers to fall into endless "patent war" litigation. As early as 2018, US memory leader Micron sued domestic memory giant Fujian Jinhua and its partner UMC in California on the grounds of intellectual property theft. In October 2018, the US Department of Commerce listed Fujian Jinhua as unavailable. Entity List for U.S. companies to purchase components, software and technology products.
(4) Analog chip: The market is occupied by foreign manufacturers, and domestic substitution is gaining momentum in mid- and low-end applications.
Analog chip industry overview and global competition landscape. Analog chips refer to analog circuits composed of capacitors, resistors, transistors, etc. that are integrated together for use. An integrated circuit that processes analog signals and has the function of converting analog signals into digital signals. According to functional division, analog chips can be divided into power management chips, signal chain chips, and radio frequency chips. The global analog chip market will reach US$72.8 billion in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 31%. In 2020, the global power management chip market will be approximately US$30 billion, the radio frequency chip market will be approximately US$15 billion, and the signal chain chip market will be approximately US$10 billion. We have already made a detailed analysis of RF chips before. This section mainly analyzes the power management chips and signal chain chips. The
power management chip is a chip responsible for the conversion, distribution, detection and other power management of electric energy in electronic equipment systems. It is widely used in network communications, security monitoring, smart power, consumer electronics, smart lighting, industrial control, In fields such as medical instruments and automotive electronics. Since different electronic equipment application scenarios require different power management solutions, power management chips have many subdivisions, such as AC/DC (alternating current/direct current) converters, DC/DC converters, LDO (low voltage dropout linear stabilizer). voltage regulator), LED driver, motor driver, power monitor, over-current protection, over-voltage protection, etc. The global market concentration of power management chips is relatively scattered. The main manufacturers are Texas Instruments, Analog Devices, Infineon, Rohm, Microchip, Hitachi, etc., with market shares of 17%, 12%, 10%, and 8% respectively. ,7%,7%.
analog chip domestic substitution situation. my country is the world's largest analog chip market, with a current self-sufficiency rate of about 12%. According to Frost & Sullivan data, my country's analog chip market size in 2021 will be approximately 273.14 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 36% of the global market size. In the domestic power management chip market, European and American companies even account for about 80% of the market share, represented by five companies: Texas Instruments, Qualcomm, Analog Devices, Maxim, and Infineon. Currently, the global concentration of power management chip companies is high. my country's analog chip self-sufficiency rate is at a low level. According to data from the China Semiconductor Industry Association, in recent years, my country's analog chip self-sufficiency rate has increased from 6% in 2017 to 12% in 2020.
(5) Logic chip: The localization process of CPU chips is slow, and the civilian market potential is large.
Logic chip industry overview. Logic chips mainly include general-purpose processors such as CPUs and GPUs, and highly specialized logic chips such as FPGAs. Logic chips have broad demand around the world. In 2019, they accounted for more than 1/4 of the market share of the entire semiconductor industry and nearly 1/3 of the entire integrated circuit market share. According to Yole, the global processor market will be worth $150 billion in 2021, with CPUs accounting for the major market share. In terms of the market structure, Intel occupies the main market share, followed by Nvidia and Qualcomm with higher shares. AMD, MediaTek, Xilinx, and Apple are also the world's major processor manufacturers.
Based on different instruction sets, the CPU industry is mainly dominated by two major systems, with Intel, AMD, and ARM being the main manufacturers. The CPU (Central Processing Unit) is the computing and control core of the computer. It is the core hardware unit that controls and allocates all the computer's hardware resources (such as memory, input and output units) and performs general operations; at the same time, all software layers in the computer system Operations will eventually be mapped to CPU operations through the instruction system.
Its internal instruction set is a collection of all instructions for computing and controlling computer systems in the CPU. Currently, the CPU industry is dominated by two major ecosystems: one is the Wintel system based on the X86 instruction system and Windows operating system, which is mainly used for servers and computers. ; The second is the AA system based on the ARM command system and Android operating system, which is mainly used for mobile devices.Centering around the two basic points of CPU chips and operating systems, there are two models in the CPU industry: Wintel system and AA system: (1) In the Wintel system, CPU manufacturers produce chips, and operating system manufacturers provide the operating system; (2) In the AA system In the CPU manufacturer, the chip or system manufacturer authorizes the instruction system or IP core. The operating system manufacturer provides the basic version of the operating system, and the complete machine manufacturer customizes the special chip and release version of the operating system.
The global CPU market is highly concentrated. In terms of X86 CPU, the world's major manufacturers are Intel and AMD. In Q4 2021, Intel's CPU market share was 74.4%, and AMD's market share was 25.6%. AMD's market share has been on the rise in recent years. In terms of mobile phone processor chips, the world's major manufacturers are Qualcomm, MediaTek, and Apple. As of Q4 2021, MediaTek's market share is 33%, Qualcomm's market share is 30%, and Apple's market share is 21%. In addition, my country's Unisoc Rui accounts for 11%, Samsung accounts for 4%, and Huawei HiSilicon accounts for 1%.
logic chip domestic substitution situation. CPU: The server-side market share is less than 5%, and the consumer-side market share is even lower. In the CPU field, according to IDC data, China's server shipments in 2020 were 3.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9.80%. Desktop and server products using domestic CPUs have developed rapidly in the past two years, but the market share is still less than 5%. Loongson, Kunpeng, Feiteng, Haiguang, Zhaoxin, and Shenwei are the six major domestic CPU chip manufacturers in my country, among which: Haiguang Information: Through cooperation with AMD, the company has obtained x86 processor design core technology authorization and entered the field of x86 processor design. . The company's products include Haiguang general-purpose processor (CPU) and Haiguang co-processor (DCU).
Haiguang CPU is mainly used in servers and workstations. It is divided into three series: 7000, 5000 and 3000, which are respectively aimed at high, medium and low-end computing power needs. The company's current Haiguang CPU products are mainly Haiguang 7200, Haiguang 5200 and Haiguang. For the 3200 series products, shipments in 2021 will reach 170,000 pieces, 29,000 pieces, and 360,000 pieces respectively. Since 2018, the products of many well-known domestic server manufacturers such as Inspur, Lenovo, H3C, and Tongfang have been equipped with Haiguang CPU chips, and have been successfully applied to customers in the financial field such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Bank of China, as well as energy and chemical companies such as PetroChina and Sinopec. customers in the field, and has been widely used in the data center business of telecom operators. In 2020, the company
Loongson Zhongke: adopts the independent LoongISA command system and is compatible with MIPS instructions. All IP modules are independently designed. The chips developed by Loongson Zhongke include three major series of processor chips, Loongson 1, Loongson 2, and Loongson 3, as well as supporting chips such as bridge chips. Among them, the Loongson 1 series and the Loongson 2 series are mainly targeted at industrial control applications; the Loongson 3 series The series is mainly oriented to information applications. The Loongson 3A5000, which was successfully taped out at the end of 2020, uses a 12/14nm process node with a main frequency of up to 2.5GHz. It integrates dual-channel DDR4-3200 and HT3.0 interfaces. The single-core SPEC CPU 2006 Base fixed and floating point scores exceed 26 points. It is close to the level of mainstream products in the open market, and is about 3 years behind the world's giants. However, the completeness and overall maturity of the Loongson processor software ecosystem are low, and the overall number of application software is significantly different from the mature ecosystem. Currently, a large number of application software in the Wintel system and AA system cannot run on the Loongson platform. Therefore, at present, the military, government and enterprises and institutions are the main focus of Zhongke Loongson.
Huawei Kunpeng: Kunpeng CPU is permanently licensed based on the ARMV8 architecture. The processor core, microarchitecture and chip are all independently developed and designed by Huawei, mainly for the server market. Huawei Kunpeng mainly has two CPU products, namely Kunpeng 916 and Kunpeng 920. Kunpeng 920 is the industry's first 7nm data center ARM processor. It was a product released by Huawei in January 2019 and is comparable to Intel's flagship products. However, because Huawei is subject to U.S. sanctions and is unable to produce chips with advanced processes, the Kunpeng ecosystem is currently facing certain challenges. Tianjin Feiteng: Focuses on ARM chip research and development, and is one of the first chip designers in China to obtain authorization for the ARMv8 instruction set architecture.Currently, it mainly includes four series: high-performance server CPU (Feiteng Cloud S series), high-performance desktop CPU (Feiteng Rui D series), high-end embedded CPU (Feiteng E series) and Feiteng suite of chips. Its latest designed Feiteng Cloud S2500 CPU chip has more than 1,000 partners, has developed more than 900 complete machine products in 6 categories, and has been adapted or is being adapted to more than 2,400 types of software and peripherals. It has good commercial prospects.
GPU: Domestic enterprises have just started, with few product launches
In the field of GPU, most Chinese enterprises are still in the concept launch stage, with few product launches and most have not yet entered the civilian market. my country's GPU industry ranks among the top in the world, reaching US$6.3 billion in 2021. However, the market share of domestic enterprises is extremely low. Among them, Jingjiawei completed the first 65nm process GPU tape-out in 2014, which was the first highly reliable graphics processing chip with completely independent intellectual property rights in China. In 2015, it successfully developed the GPU chip JM5400 and gradually applied it to the company. Among military display and control products; in 2018, the company's second-generation GPU chip JM7200 was successfully tape-out and entered the civilian and Xinchuang markets; in 2021 In September, the company's new generation JM9 series of chips was successfully tape-out and performance testing was completed in November. In addition, at the end of 2020, Tianshu Intelligent Core realized the "lighting up" of the 7nm process GPGPU cloud training chip, and its announced computing power reached 147TFlops, which is nearly twice the computing power of the Nvidia N100 chip with the highest market share at the same precision. China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation also launched the GP101 chip in 2018, achieving a breakthrough in my country's universal 3D graphics card and supporting the X86 architecture and a variety of domestic CPUs.
FPGA: The domestic production rate is less than 1%, mainly low-end CPLD and small-scale FPGA devices
According to statistics, China's FPGA market has grown from approximately 6.55 billion yuan in 2016 to 15.03 billion yuan in 2020, with an average annual compound growth rate of approximately is 23.1%. The major domestic FPGA companies are Anlu Technology, Fudan Microelectronics, Chengdu Sino Microelectronics, Unisoc Tongchuang, etc. Among them, Anlu Technology’s TangDynasty is one of the few FPGA-specific software in China that has independently developed the entire process, and has accumulated a number of mature image processing and logical interface IPs, greatly improving users’ application development efficiency. At present, the company's 28nm process FPGA has been put into mass production. It is one of the first domestic companies with 28nm FPGA chip design and mass production capabilities, and has carried out pre-research work on FinFET process products. Fudan Microelectronics launched a billion-gate FPGA product using 28nm process technology in 2018, with a SerDes transmission rate of up to 13.1Gbps, and has been shipped to hundreds of domestic customers. Unisoc’s Titan series (40nm) and Logos series (40nm) have both achieved mass production and commercialization, and mass production of tens of millions of gate-level (40 million) FPGAs using the 28nm process is also in progress.
7, electronic components
(1) MLCC: There is broad room for substitution of low-end products, and domestic manufacturers are in the stage of expanding production capacity
MLCC industry overview. Capacitors are passive electronic components used to store electricity and energy. Capacitor products can be mainly divided into ceramic capacitors, aluminum electrolytic capacitors, tantalum electrolytic capacitors and film capacitors. Judging from the global market share of various types of capacitors in recent years, ceramic capacitors account for about half of the aforementioned four major types of capacitors. Ceramic capacitors can be divided into multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCC) and single-layer ceramic capacitors (SLCC). MLCC has the advantages of low ESR, high temperature resistance, high voltage resistance, small size, and wide capacitance range. It has advantages in cost and performance, accounting for more than 90% of the ceramic capacitor market. From the perspective of downstream applications, mobile phones and computers are the largest downstream application fields of MLCC, with the sum of the two proportions exceeding 50%, followed by automotive electronics, accounting for about 15% to 20%, mobile phones/PCs, automotive electronics It is also a concentrated application area for high-end MLCC.
The MLCC industry chain includes upstream ceramic materials, motor metals, and midstream MLCC manufacturing. The production process has high requirements on materials, equipment and technology, and has high industry barriers. The MLCC production process is relatively complicated and includes dozens of steps. Among them, the preparation of ceramic powder, laminated printing, and co-firing of ceramic powder and metal electrodes are the main difficulties in MLCC production. There is a certain gap between my country and the international advanced level in these three technologies.
ceramic powder is the core raw material of MLCC, which is mainly divided into three categories: Y5V, X7R and COG. Among them, X7R material has the highest market demand and is the most competitive specification in the world. Japanese manufacturers represented by Murata have high-reliability X7R ceramic powder manufacturing technology and produce 10μF-100μF small-size MLCC based on wet BaTIO3 with a D50 of 100 nanometers. However, domestic manufacturers can only add rare earth metal oxides to modify BaTIO3 with a D50 of 300-500 nanometers to produce X7R ceramic powder, which is significantly behind the level of Japanese companies. In the field of laminated printing technology, Japanese companies have implemented a process of stacking 1,000 layers on a 2μm thin film medium to produce 100μFMLCC with a single layer medium thickness of 1μm. However, currently, Chinese companies can only complete casting into a 3μm thick film medium and sintering. MLCC with a 2μm thick dielectric after porcelain lagging lags behind Japan's advanced level.
The global MLCC market size is approximately 101.7 billion yuan, which is mainly monopolized by Japanese and Korean companies. In 2018, the global MLCC market size was approximately RMB 110.2 billion, but in 2019 due to a double decline in price and output, the market size dropped to RMB 96.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6%. In the first half of 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic caused the normal operations of most MLCC manufacturers to be interrupted. However, as the epidemic improved in the second half of the year, MLCC production and sales gradually recovered, and the full-year MLCC market size still reached 101.7 billion yuan. In the global MLCC market, Japanese and Korean companies are in the first echelon due to their production capacity and technological advantages. Among them, Murata and Samsung Electric are the leaders among Japanese and Korean manufacturers, with global shares of 32% and 19% respectively. However, Taiwanese companies such as Yageo and Huaxin Technology are slightly behind in technology and are in the third echelon; while domestic manufacturers such as Fenghua Hi-Tech and Sanhuan Group mainly produce mid-to-low-end products, with a low global market share and are still far behind the industry leaders. There is a big gap.
Japanese companies have an absolute advantage in the field of ceramic powder, the most important raw material for MLCC production. There are five Japanese companies among the top seven raw material suppliers in the world, among which Sakai ranks first in the world with a market share of 28%. In addition, Chinese company Guoca Materials also has a 10% market share.
MLCC Domestic substitution situation. From an external perspective, limited by production capacity bottlenecks in factories and equipment, competition in the mid- to low-end MLCC market has become increasingly fierce, resulting in reduced profit margins. Japanese and Korean manufacturers have made strategic adjustments to the MLCC production capacity structure since 2016, gradually reducing gross profit margins. The relatively low production capacity of ordinary specification MLCC has turned to small-size, high-capacity, automotive-grade MLCC products with higher technical difficulty and profit, and greater demand in the future.
Domestic companies such as Fenghua Hi-Tech, Sanhuan Group, and Yuyang Technology already have certain domestic substitution capabilities. Among them, Fenghua Hi-Tech's MLCC product sales rank among the top seven in the world and first in China. It has obtained a total of 583 authorized patents (including 293 invention patents). It leads and participates in the formulation of 6 national and industry standards, and its products cover almost all product segments. Category, it is planned to add 540 billion MLCC production capacity per year in 2024; Yuyang Technology's ultra-miniature MLCC has filled the domestic gap and reached the domestic leading level. It is currently the largest in the country. 0402/0201/01005 and other micro/ultra-micro MLCC manufacturers, the micro size represents 0201’s total output, ranking among the top three in the world. Microcapacitor Technology's 01005 and 0201 micro series have become the main supply force in the industry. Among the high-capacity series, the specifications of 1μF, 2.2μF, 4.7μF, and 10μF have been mass-produced, and continue to be expanded to 22μF, 47μF, and 100μF. The first phase of its 2021 high-end MLCC project has a total investment of 2 billion yuan. It is expected that the total MLCC production capacity will reach 500 billion units per year after completion. In terms of upstream materials for
, major domestic companies include Boqian New Materials and Guoca Materials. Among them, Boqian New Materials is deeply involved in the market of nano-nickel powder and copper powder for consumer-grade MLCC. The world's leading 80nm nickel powder for MLCC, which is self-developed and mass-produced, has been successfully used in the products of Samsung Electro-Mechanics, the world's leading MLCC.
(2) MEMS sensors: Domestic companies focus on mid- to low-end domestic substitution, and the high-end market needs to be explored
Sensor Industry Overview MEMS systems are microelectromechanical systems that use semiconductor manufacturing processes and materials to integrate sensors, actuators, mechanical mechanisms, and signal processing Micro devices or systems integrated with control circuits, etc., whose internal structure is generally on the micron or even nanometer scale, are currently a relatively advanced sensor technology. Compared with traditional mechanical systems, microelectromechanical systems have competitive advantages such as miniaturization, low weight, low power consumption, low cost, and multiple functions. They can be mass manufactured, packaged, and tested through micro-nano processing technology.
sensor domestic substitution situation. At present, my country's MEMS sensor industry is still in the development stage. It is mainly deployed in subdivided fields such as acoustics, optics, pressure, and inertia, and its production strategy is mainly OEM. China's MEMS market size reached 70.54 billion yuan in 2020, an increase of 10.76 billion yuan from 2019, a year-on-year increase of 18%, and the growth rate is higher than the growth rate of the sensor market. From the perspective of domestic market competition, major global manufacturers such as Bosch, Broadcom, STMicroelectronics, and Texas Instruments occupy the top positions, while domestic enterprises have a weak market competitive position.
From the perspective of MEMS sensors, Chinese companies already have the production capabilities of mainstream devices. Companies such as Goertek, AAC Technology, and Minxin Technology already have mass production capabilities for MEMS microphone products; the domestic replacement of MEMS pressure sensors and MEMS airflow sensors has begun to take shape; Ruichuang Microna's infrared MEMS products are also emerging in the domestic market . In terms of technology level, domestic companies have entered the 6-inch MEMS production field, formed a complete process technology system on the established 6-inch MEMS bulk silicon SOI process platform, and successfully built 23 MEMS production lines, with a production capacity of generally 3.6 About 10,000 pieces/year, up to 40,000 pieces/year. Among them, the 6-inch MEMS production lines of Huadong Optoelectronics, Guangzhou Aosong Electronics, Innosilicon Technology and other companies have successfully achieved mass production.
In terms of professional MEMS foundry, Sai Microelectronics acquired Silex, a leading professional MEMS foundry manufacturer in 2015 (ranked first in professional MEMS foundry revenue in 2019). It has not only gained customer recognition and mature process IP; it also relies on Silex The developed SmartBlock modular standardization method enables rapid prototyping, customization and rapid mass production of products, greatly shortening the product verification cycle and development cycle.
(3) Polarizer: The base film is monopolized by Japanese companies, and the key technology has not yet broken through.
Polarizer Industry Overview The full name of polarizer is polarizer, which can control the polarization direction of a specific light beam. When natural light passes through a polarizer, the light whose vibration direction is perpendicular to the transmission axis of the polarizer will be absorbed, leaving only the polarized light whose vibration direction is parallel to the transmission axis of the polarizer. There are two polarizers in the LCD module attached to both sides of the glass substrate. The lower polarizer is used to convert the light beam generated by the backlight into polarized light. The upper polarizer is used to analyze the polarized light after being electrically modulated by the liquid crystal to produce The contrast between light and dark creates a display. The polarizer is composed of a PVA layer containing iodine substances, a TAC layer that protects the PVA, an adhesive layer PSA, a protective film, and a discrete film. PVA is the core film material of the polarizer, which determines the polarization performance, transmittance, and hue of the polarizer. Key parameters. At present, the global polarizer market is dominated by polarizers for TFT-LCD, which account for about 10% of the cost of TFT-LCD panels. The
industry is approximately US$10 billion, with Japanese and Korean manufacturers dominating the global market. In terms of market size, according to CINNO Research, the global polarizer shipment area in 2021 will be approximately 610 million square meters. The global polarizer market for panels will reach US$10.2 billion in 2021, exceeding the US$10 billion mark for the first time. From the perspective of the competitive landscape, Japanese and Korean companies occupy a large market share. In 2019, South Korea's LG Chem, Samsung SDI, Japan's Sumitomo Chemical and Nitto Denko accounted for a total of 77%. The market concentration is high, with LG Chem ranking first. The market share reached 23%. China's polarizer companies mainly include Shengbo Optoelectronics and Sanlipu, but their market share is low. In 2019, Shengbo Optoelectronics' market share was only 4%.
The upstream basement membrane is monopolized by Japanese companies, resulting in my country's serious dependence on foreign countries.Among the core film materials of polarizers, PVA film and TAC film are of higher value, accounting for 16% and 54% of the cost of polarizers respectively. They are also one of the "stuck neck" areas in my country. According to data from New Materials Online, the main global manufacturer of PVA film is Kuraray of Japan, accounting for 80% of the global market share. The main manufacturers of TAC film are Fujifilm and Konica Minolta, accounting for 55% and 20% of the global market share respectively. my country has not yet mastered the key technology for producing TAC membranes.
polarizer domestic substitution situation. In recent years, Chinese LCD panel companies, led by BOE and Huaxing Optoelectronics, have vigorously expanded production and continuously improved production capacity. China's LCD has gradually increased its global share, which has also driven the demand for polarizers. In 2020, the domestic polarizer market size was 53.2 billion dollars. But at the same time, my country's domestic polarizer production capacity is seriously insufficient. At present, domestic production capacity mainly comes from domestic factories of Japanese companies such as LG Chem, Nitto Denko, and Sumitomo Chemical. Among mainland manufacturers, only Shengbo Optoelectronics and Shengbo Optoelectronics and Co., Ltd. have full-process large-scale production capabilities. The two Sanlipu companies have a production capacity gap of more than 100 million cubic meters.
The localization of the core technologies of TAC film and PVA film, the main raw materials of polarizers, has been slow. High-end technologies are mostly mastered by Japan and South Korea, and domestic technologies are mostly concentrated in the field of black and white series polarizers. In the production process, our country still needs to cooperate with Japanese companies to obtain technology use rights. For example, Selen Technology signed a cooperation agreement with Japan's Higashiyama to jointly build the Changzhou Phase III project. After its completion, it is expected to have an annual output of TAC functional optical films exceeding 90 million square meters; Zhejiang Dongfluoro also cooperated with Japanese and Korean companies to introduce annual output The TAC optical film project covers an area of 100 million square meters and has a total investment of more than 1 billion yuan, with a total investment of approximately 1.01 billion yuan. However, in the field of black and white polarizer raw materials, Chinese companies have achieved domestic substitution of some products. Among them, the black-and-white PVA film developed by Wanwei High-tech has basically met the needs of domestic production, and its black-and-white PVA film production base with an estimated production capacity of 70 million square meters per year has been basically completed and put into operation.
In terms of polarizer manufacturing, my country's leading polarizer companies have achieved technological self-sufficiency in some areas. Among them, Sanlipu put into production a 1490mm wide production line as early as 2011, and independently developed and mastered core polarizer production technologies such as warpage control technology, automatic appearance inspection technology, and equipment design and integration technology. The thinnest effective thickness of the product has reached 79μm. . Shanshan Co., Ltd. will acquire LG Chem's LCD polarizer business through a capital increase in 2021. LG Chem has 8 front-end production lines with a production capacity of approximately 130 million square meters, of which 5 are ultra-wide production lines of more than 2 meters. It is the world's largest The market leader in the ultra-wide format and the first company in the industry to use ultra-wide production lines, of which the 2600 mm ultra-wide production line is the largest in the world. Shanshan Co., Ltd. has become a leading company in the domestic polarizer market.
(This article is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice on our part. If you need to use relevant information, please refer to the original text of the report.)
Selected report source: [Future Think Tank] Future Think Tank - Official website
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-