On July 18, domestic palm oil futures and spot prices rose together. As of July 18, 2022, the price of palm oil in major regions across the country. The mainstream transaction price of 24-degree palm oil in Tianjin was 9,690 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 9.73% from last year; in Guangzhou area 24 degrees palm oil The mainstream transaction price of 24-degree palm oil in Shandong is 9,490 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%; the mainstream transaction price of 24-degree palm oil in Shandong is 9,490 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 7.11%; the mainstream transaction price of 24-degree palm oil in East China is 9,390 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.94% compared with the same period last year. As of July 19, the continuous palm oil futures P2209 contract closed up 394 yuan/ton in night trading, an increase of 5.06%, with a settlement price of 7784 yuan/ton, closing at 8178 yuan/ton, with an intraday high of 8250 yuan/ton and a low of 8092 yuan. / ton, total hands 492270, positions 334132, position difference -12046. So what are the reasons for the rise in palm oil?
Data source: Steel Union Data
Indonesia is exempt from special export taxes
Starting from July 20, Indonesia will begin to increase the mandatory blending rate of biodiesel from the current 30% to 35% to help digest excess palm oil supply. Data from the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) on July 15 showed that palm oil stocks at the end of May were as high as 7.23 million tons. Indonesia has exempted the previous LEVY palm oil exports until the end of August. This move is mainly to accelerate the destocking of palm oil in Indonesia and add more storage capacity to reduce production losses after entering the peak production season.
Production in major producing countries decreased
According to data from the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Crusher Association (SPPOMA), Malaysian palm oil production fell by 13.03% from July 1 to 15, 2022, the oil yield increased by 0.19%, and the output decreased by 12%. In the seasonal increase in production, the horse palm production data is nothing more than a positive performance, which may lead to tight palm oil supply.
Support from the external edible oil market
The rise in external oils and fats has also given support to the rise in palm oil. During the Asian trading session on Monday morning, July 18, December soybean oil futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 0.19 cents to 58.42 cents per pound. Brent crude oil futures for September delivery in London rose $0.73 to trade at $101.89 a barrel.
Oil-demanding countries still have replenishment needs
html On July 15, the Solvent Extractors Association (SEA), an industry body, said that as the world's largest importer of vegetable oil, India imported 587,467 tons of palm oil in June. In June this year, India's total vegetable oil imports (including edible and non-edible oils) were 991,000 tons, down from 996,000 tons in the same period last year. But palm oil's share accounts for about 50% of the country's total vegetable oil imports. According to SEA data, imports of RBD palm oil (33-degree refined palm oil) increased significantly from 3,200 tons to 79,264 tons, while imports of crude palm kernel oil dropped 48.42% from 7,377 tons to 3,805 tons. India's imports of RBD palm oil have soared, mainly because of the high special export tax on Indonesian crude palm oil and the low tariff on RBD palm oil, which is conducive to Indonesian exporters selling RBD palm oil at a discount to promote RBD palm oil exports.
Domestic palm oil imports decreased in June
The latest data released by China’s General Administration of Customs recently showed that China’s palm oil imports in June were 70,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 79.8%. China's palm oil imports from January to June totaled 560,000 tons, down 73.1% year-on-year. The reduction in imports has resulted in limited available spot resources in the palm oil market.
Improved demand supports palm oil prices
Data source: Steel Union data
According to Mysteel tracking, the palm oil trading volume of key oil mills in the country was 7,300 tons in the 29th week. Last week, the palm oil trading volume of key oil mills was 2,533 tons. The weekly trading volume An increase of 4,767 tons, an increase of 188.20%.
Market outlook: Judging from the fundamentals of palm oil itself, the decline in output in major producing countries during the seasonal production increase season supports palm oil basis prices. In addition, Indonesia has exempted palm oil from special taxes on exports. It is expected that Indonesian palm oil exports will increase and inventory pressure will be further alleviated. At present, palm oil has stopped falling and rebounded under the guidance of macroeconomics. It is recommended to pay attention to macromarket sentiment, Indonesian palm oil exports and domestic palm oil inventories.
Note: Palm oil types include virgin palm oil, palm sap oil (melting point 19℃-24℃), other palm oils and their isolates.
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