This week, the three major A-share indexes had mixed gains and losses. Specifically, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.3% to close at 3269.97 points; the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index fell 0.14% to close at 12394.02 points; the GEM Index fell 0.84%. It closed at 2737.31 points.
Judging from the sector performance this week, among the industry sectors, the shipping, automobile, Internet and other sectors led the gains, while the hotel and catering, coal sectors were among the top decliners; among the concept sectors, the car dismantling, titanium metal , cloud games and other sectors performed well Strong, including GDR, CXO, chicken, lithium ore , etc., among the top decliners.
The capital flow is upward, with the main funds favoring sectors such as shipbuilding, beauty care, optics and optoelectronics, and significantly reducing their holdings in the automobile, photovoltaic equipment, and power industries; northbound funds are increasing their positions in rare metals, computer software, and communication equipment and other sectors, and significantly reduced its holdings in sectors such as automobiles, food, and white goods.
Regarding the market outlook, West China Securities pointed out that A-shares have entered the earnings season, and the market has shifted from liquidity and risk preference to profit-driven. The market may enter a "turbulent period", and it is recommended to be patient and wait for the dip. Taking into account the relatively concentrated holdings of and of high-prosperity industry institutions and relatively crowded transactions, with the successive disclosures of corporate interim reports from July to August, popular track stocks are facing a period of performance testing.
Key data at a glance
Hot review
[Ship]
This week, the ship sector performed particularly well, with a weekly increase of 12.74%, ranking first in the weekly industry sector increase list. From the perspective of capital flow, main funds are particularly fond of shipbuilding, with a net inflow of 1.3 billion yuan a week, far exceeding other sectors.
GF Securities stated that the current shipbuilding industry is in the recovery stage at the bottom of the cycle. Ship prices continue to rise and shipyards have full orders. Against the background of falling steel prices, shipyard profitability is expected to further improve. It is recommended to actively pay attention to the recovery of the demand side in the future. and cost improvements. In terms of individual stocks, we recommend China Shipbuilding Industry, the leader in the shipbuilding industry. It is recommended to pay attention to China Heavy Industry , China Shipbuilding Defense , etc.
[Automobile]
This week, the automobile sector performed outstandingly, with a cumulative increase of 6.91% in a week, ranking second in this week's industry sector growth list. Among the stocks in this sector, Guansheng Shares performed the most outstandingly, with a cumulative increase of 40.75% in a week. Songyuan Shares, Tiancheng Controls , Xiangxin Technology, and Sinomach Automobile html all increased by more than 25% in two weeks.
Pacific Securities pointed out that it is expected that car sales in the second half of the year will usher in the recovery of consumption after the epidemic. With the continued realization of fundamentals, the overall valuation improvement based on industry prosperity and the valuation bubble of popular tracks will continue. Key points Follow Great Wall Automobile , Changan Automobile , Guangzhou Automobile Group and Ideal Automobile and other vehicle targets. Recommended parts include Songyuan Co., Ltd., Jingwei Hengrun, Keboda , Silver Wheel Co., Ltd. and Mingxin Xuteng.
Ping An Securities pointed out that in terms of complete vehicles, they are optimistic about the fast pace of hybrid strategy, fruitful development of new energy vehicles and leading intelligent car companies; in terms of parts, they are optimistic about the development opportunities of domain controllers brought by the development of smart cars, and it is highly recommended. Zhongke Chuangda , recommend Desay SV, Jingwei Hengrun, are optimistic about glass and interior and exterior leading parts suppliers, recommend Fuyao Glass , Huayu Automobile ; pay attention to the industry chain opportunities brought by the continued increase in the volume of Tesla products. We strongly recommend CATL, Dangsheng Technology , Shanshan Shares , Huichuan Technology , and recommend Putilai, New Zhoubang , Wolong electric drive, pay attention to Tianci Materials , Xingyuan Materials, Enjie Co., Ltd. , Sanhua Intelligent Control.
[Integrated die-casting]
This week, in the automotive sector, the subdivision of integrated die-casting is particularly worthy of attention. It ranked first among the concept sectors for the week, reaching 8.86%. Judging from the performance of individual stocks, Chunxing Seiko had the largest increase in a week, reaching 53.67%. Flanders, Guangdong Hongtu, Shunbo Alloy, etc. performed equally well, all rising by more than 20%.
Regarding integrated die-casting, Tianfeng Securities research report pointed out that integrated die-casting technology is an innovation in the traditional automobile manufacturing process, which can make the body lighter, save costs, improve efficiency, shorten the supply chain, and the manufacturing time of the entire vehicle. Transportation time is shortened, labor and robots are reduced, and manufacturing scale is increased. It is expected that the market space for integrated die-casting will see rapid growth starting in 2023, and the market space for domestic integrated die-casting is expected to reach more than 30 billion by 2025. (1) It is recommended to pay attention to the die-casting companies Guangdong Hongtu, Wencan Co., Ltd., Tuopu Group, Xusheng Co., Ltd., Quanfeng Automobile, Aikedi , etc. that are laying out the integrated die-casting track; (2) Upstream suppliers are expected to follow the integration It is recommended to pay attention to the upstream material supplier Lizhong Group and the die-casting equipment supplier Lijin Technology.
[Power battery recycling]
This Friday, the concept of power battery recycling opened strongly, surpassing the "20CM" daily limit of technology, and Disney, Tianqi shares , GEM , etc. all rushed higher.
From the perspective of capital flow, the power battery recycling sector received a substantial increase in northbound funds this week, with a weekly net inflow of 1.875 billion yuan, ranking second in the weekly increase and decrease in holdings of northbound funds in the concept sector.
On the news, according to the Shanghai Securities News, on the morning of July 21, the "2022 World Power Battery Conference" was held in Yibin . Zhang Yunming, a member of the Party Leadership Group and Vice Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said in his speech that our country has initially established a power battery Battery recycling system. In the future, we will further improve the recycling system, accelerate the formulation of recycling management methods, strengthen the linkage between central and local work, form a coordinated supervision mechanism, improve the power battery recycling standard system, support the research and promotion of intelligent disassembly, material recycling and other technologies, and accelerate the cultivation of A group of related enterprises involved in echelon utilization and recycling.
GF Securities pointed out that the prosperity of the power battery recycling industry has improved, and it is recommended to pay attention to: 1. Third-party companies that rely on automotive equipment or are involved in car dismantling: Wangneng Environment, Tianqi Shares, Guanghua Technology , etc.; 2. Batteries/positive electrodes Manufacturing companies: CATL, Tianci Materials, GEM, etc.
Northeast Securities pointed out that based on industrial policies, improved processes, and the rapid increase in the scrapping scale of retired power batteries, the overall scale of battery recycling has huge potential in the future. Targets/enterprises planning battery recycling: Tianqi Co., Ltd., Ganfeng Lithium Industry , Huayou Cobalt , Hanrui Cobalt , Shengtun Mining , Xiamen Tungsten Industry , etc.
[Lithium Battery]
This week, the lithium battery sector suffered a large outflow of main funds, with a net outflow of 21.804 billion yuan in a week, ranking first in the weekly list of main fund concept sector reductions.
Regarding the lithium battery sector, Shanxi Securities pointed out that the current prices of cathode materials and battery cells have increased, the gross profit margins of battery manufacturers and ternary cathode companies have improved, the demand for energy storage continues to increase, and some regions have begun to subsidize automobile consumption. We are optimistic about the rising volume and price of companies related to the lithium battery industry chain in the later period. In the upstream of the lithium battery industry chain, it is recommended to pay attention to: Tianqi Lithium Industry , Huayou Cobalt; in the middle reaches of the power battery industry chain, it is recommended to pay attention to separator and anode companies: Enjie Co., Ltd., Rongbai Technology, Shanshan Co., Ltd., Beterui, and Dangsheng. Technology; power battery manufacturers recommend paying attention to: BYD and CATL.
[Beauty Care]
This week, the beauty care sector has a weekly increase of 4.63%, and has been favored by major funds, with a net inflow of 364 million yuan a week. Judging from the performance of individual stocks, Shuiyang shares rose by 24.63% in a week, and Mingchen Health, Lafangjiahua , and Huaxi Biotech all increased by more than 11% in two weeks.
Guosheng Securities said that beauty care has performed strongly in the consumer sector and is optimistic about the value of selected leading configurations in the long term. Long-term optimism: In cosmetics, high-quality brands that develop comprehensively through R&D/products/channels, the core recommendations are Bettany and Proya; in medical beauty , the leading consumables manufacturer with both R&D and qualification barriers, the core recommendation is Amic , Huaxi Biotechnology.
Huaan Securities said, (1) Cosmetics industry: The trend of cosmetics differentiation has become more obvious this year, and we continue to pay attention to leading cosmetics brands with strong R&D capabilities and brand power. Pay attention to: Bettany, Proya, Shanghai Jahwa, Marubi Co., Ltd., and Shuiyang Co., Ltd. (2) Medical beauty industry: With the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, the flow of people in offline medical beauty stores is expected to gradually recover. Pay attention to: Bloomage Biotech, Amic, East China Medicine , Haohai Biotech, Sihuan Pharmaceutical; pay attention to Langzi Co., Ltd. , etc., which are the layout of downstream medical and aesthetic institutions.
Market outlook configuration
CITIC Securities : Adhere to the balanced allocation of development of manufacturing, medicine and consumption
CITIC Securities pointed out that the development of manufacturing, medicine and consumption should be maintained in a balanced allocation, and short-term growth of manufacturing is more inclined to semiconductors and military industries. In terms of specific product selection, it is recommended to focus on: ① In the growing manufacturing field, it is recommended to focus on semiconductors (automotive semiconductors and materials), military industries (military electronics and materials) with improved operations and continued performance, and smart cars with continued increase in penetration rate and accelerated intelligence trend. (Intelligent hardware, new forces in car manufacturing), as well as photovoltaic and wind power, which resonate with domestic and foreign demand and have the highest consensus; in the middle and late quarter of the interim report, it is expected that the growth manufacturing market may be more biased towards semiconductor and military industries. ② The pharmaceutical industry may be affected by policies as the impact eases, and may usher in a period of valuation recovery. It is recommended to focus on innovative drugs, medical devices, CXO, and medical services. ③The consumer sector still focuses on two main lines. One is the restoration of industries damaged by the early epidemic (aviation, hotels, catering, tourism), and the other is the subdivided industries that still maintain high prosperity despite the local epidemic background (liquor, small home appliances, beauty products). Makeup industry chain, human resources service ).
West China Securities: In the medium and long term, the trend of the A-share center gradually moving up has not changed.
West China Securities pointed out that in the medium and long term, the trend of the A-share center gradually moving up has not changed. In terms of industry allocation, it is recommended to focus on two main lines of investment: 1) High-prosperity sectors that benefit from key support from national policies, such as "new energy (wind energy, wind power, UHV, energy storage, photovoltaic), new energy vehicles", etc.; 2) Estimation Consumer goods whose value has returned to a relatively reasonable range, such as "food, drink, medicine," etc. The theme focuses on "military industry, digital economy", etc.
Western Securities: Stay patient enough and embrace certainty.
Western Securities pointed out that for investors, it will be more important to grasp stylistic certainty in the second half of the year. In the short term, focus on consumption with relatively stable profit expectations (agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, home appliances, textiles and clothing, food and beverages) and infrastructure chains (environmental protection, public utilities, construction, etc.) that are expected to benefit from stable growth policies. In the medium term, inflation is still the most important investment thread throughout the year, and we will continue to pay attention to pan-agriculture (planting and seed industry, breeding industry, fertilizers and pesticides, agricultural materials cold chain logistics , agricultural mechanization, etc.) that benefit from rising inflation. , as well as leading consumer industries such as food and beverage, home appliances and pharmaceuticals with solid performance.
Guosheng Securities: Q3 The principle of tactical configuration is "taking performance as the starting point, focusing on winning rate and ignoring odds."
Guosheng Securities pointed out that for the market outlook, we maintain our previous view, that is, When the market enters a market environment where there is a top and a bottom, it may not be the best choice to bet on "the strong will stay strong" or "reversal of difficulties" unilaterally. Different from the second quarter, "space is more important than time" "The principle of Q3 tactical configuration is "taking performance as the starting point, focusing on winning rate and ignoring odds." Combining performance expectations, valuation matching and congestion, it is recommended to focus on subdivided industries: agrochemicals in the upstream, aviation equipment and communication equipment in the midstream manufacturing, and condiments, small household appliances, beauty care, and CXO in the downstream. At the individual stock level, it is recommended to pay attention at this stage: the interim report performance exceeds expectations combination and the "dividend + MAF" combination.
Haitong strategy: The nature of the recent adjustment is late in spring, and the mid-term trend will reverse upward without changing.
Haitong strategy points out: ① The market adjustment since the beginning of July is due to the fact that the fundamentals have not kept up with the market. Drawing lessons from history, they often give back half of the previous gains and trading volume. Shrunk by half. ② The adjustment triggers are poor mid-term reports and overseas fluctuations. The nature of the adjustment is a cold spring and will reverse the upward mid-term trend.③Remain patient. The growth of high-prosperity sectors such as new energy will still be upward in the mid-term, taking into account necessary consumption such as medicine.
Kaiyuan Securities: Maintaining a focus on the growth manufacturing industry with a market value of 30 billion to 60 billion and reasonable valuation
Kaiyuan Securities pointed out that in the early stage of liquidity recovery, we will seize the manufacturing opportunities in the economic structure that may be the first to recover, and we are still firmly optimistic about the "new semi-military" ” represents the growth style. Pay special attention to the mid-cap growth with a market value of 30 billion to 60 billion, and recommend the allocation of industries with a double increase in "gross profit margin + revenue" and reasonable valuations, including: batteries, motor electronic control, energy storage, photovoltaics, wind power, mechanical equipment and military industry, etc. ; In addition, the fundamentals of branch line allocation are highly dependent on liquidity brokers.
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