can't sleep all night! Over the weekend, stock investors should have had a good rest and recuperated before facing a new round of market conditions next week; as a result, there was a big bad news in the securities market over the weekend. This bad news broke the calm of the weekend securities market and affected the self-confidence of stock investors. They are all preparing for tomorrow. a shares are worried about the opening market.
I believe that anyone who pays attention to the external market will know that the big negative coming from the securities market over the weekend is the US stock market plummeted, European stock markets plummeted, and global stock markets fell to varying degrees; the collective collapse of European and American stock markets was mainly due to the Fed release 9 The rate hike again in March triggered a wave of selling pressure in the stock market.
Big bad news
The big bad news coming from the securities market over the weekend is the collective plunge in European and American stock markets, especially the plummeting of the three major U.S. stock indexes. As of the close, the Dow Jones index fell 1008.38 points, a decrease of 3.03%; Nasdaq Index fell 497.56 points, or 3.94%; S&P 500 index fell 141.46 points, or 3.37%; the major indexes closed a big negative stick, popular stocks, Chinese concept stocks and technology stocks and other all-line fell down , and it was green.
The three major European stock indexes were also dragged down by U.S. stocks. The major indexes experienced sharp diving in late trading. As of the close, the British FTSE 100 Index fell 52.43 points, a decrease of 0.70%; The French CAC40 index fell by 107.30 points, or 1.68%; The German DAX30 index fell by 300.49 points, or 2.26%; the European stock market itself was very stable, but dived in late trading and expanded its decline, and also closed collectively.
Reasons for the crash
In fact, the plunge or sharp decline in European and American stock markets was mainly due to the expected U.S. interest rate hike in September, which triggered a wave of selling pressure in the stock market, causing panic among retail investors and igniting the fuse of the collective plunge in European and American stock markets.
This fuse was mainly caused by US Chairman Powell saying at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting that the Fed would continue to raise interest rates, which triggered a wave of market selling pressure. Other Fed officials also said that the Fed would continue to raise interest rates in September. This This is obviously adding fuel to the fire, and the market has become even more pessimistic.
The United States has been raising interest rates for several months in a row and continues to tighten its currency. This is a big negative for the U.S. market and the global market. Both of them have gone too far and dragged down the European and American stock markets.
Will A-shares plummet tomorrow?
According to the actual situation of A-shares themselves, the news, and the market conditions of external stock markets, A-shares will definitely fall tomorrow, and a fall is inevitable; of course, a fall will not necessarily lead to a big fall, so a small fall is inevitably unrealistic.
predicts that A-shares will collectively open lower tomorrow. After the opening, the selling pressure chips will come out and follow the trend to test the support. There is a high probability that it will stabilize at 3200 points; there will be tossing near the mark, and after a period of tossing, it will return to a state of shock and decline. It will continue to decline throughout the day. It opens weakly and fluctuates, and the probability of a slight decline in the end is high.
Why do you predict that the A-share market will open lower and fall tomorrow, but it will not fall sharply? In order to confirm the predicted view, there are mainly three supporting points.
first, European and American stock markets collectively closed sharply lower, especially the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively fell sharply. Affected by the negative impact of the decline in European and American stock markets, and the characteristics of A-shares following the decline but not the rise, it is certain that A-shares will open lower tomorrow. of.
The rise and fall of European and American stock markets will directly determine the opening of A-shares on the next trading day. As long as the rise and fall of European and American stock markets can basically determine the opening of A-shares on the next trading day, it can be inferred that A-shares will open at a lower price tomorrow. .
Secondly, A-shares dived in the late trading on Friday. This trend is definitely not a good thing. There is an abnormal rise or a crash in the late trading, which are both good things; a late-trading sneak attack will lead to the next day's opening high and moving low Be prepared, otherwise dive and hit the market at the end of the session, and get out of the market early for a lower opening the next day.
The plunge of A-shares in late trading on Friday shows that very large funds are fleeing and selling in advance, in order to cash out in advance and avoid the weakness caused by the collective lower opening of A-shares tomorrow; very large funds have risks that can be predicted in advance, starting from the late trading It can also be seen that A shares will fall tomorrow.
Third, although looks at the trend of A-shares tomorrow, it is inevitable to open low and go down with the trend, but a bearish trend does not necessarily lead to a big drop, and a small drop is not a bad thing. The difference is a small drop or a big drop, but it is predicted that A-shares will fall tomorrow. Just a small drop.
The reason is that there is support below the market , such as the support of the half-year line and the 90-day moving average. In addition, the weighted sectors will come out to protect the market , as long as these large-cap stocks do not crash the market. A-shares won’t fall sharply tomorrow, and they won’t be able to do so even if they want to.
summarizes the above three aspects of analysis, A-shares will open lower tomorrow and fluctuate and fall, but there will not be a big drop. The probability of a big drop is relatively low; the reason is that there is no panic wave in A-shares, and the weighted sectors will To protect the market, insurance and securities will play a role at critical moments. Once the market is protected, it will not fall sharply.
We should remain cautious in operations and wait and see. Whether it is a small drop or a big drop, the adjustment of A-shares is not over yet. Just do a good job in short-term risk control and save opportunities after the reserve level adjustment is completed.
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