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Kweichow Moutai was listed for trading in August 2001, and August 2021 will be the 20th anniversary of the stock’s listing. Regarding the performance of Kweichow Moutai in A shares , from the past years, it can be said to be the most favorite target stock of value investors, and it has also brought very good wealth to traders who participated in the stock investment. Effect .
Recently, many professional institutions have given medium and long-term target prices for Kweichow Moutai . Which of these target prices is more reasonable? Let's have a discussion together.
has been on the market for 20 years, and the stock price has increased by as much as 81 times.
Since the listing of Kweichow Moutai , 2021 happens to be the 20th anniversary of the listing of the stock. From the observation of its annual K-line cycle, it has risen for 15 years, including this year. The current stock price adjustment has been a downward adjustment for five years. Compared with the performance of and in the A-share market, Kweichow Moutai is undoubtedly a stock with "king style" in the history of A-shares.
was listed for trading in August 2001. On the day of listing, the stock price hit a low of 32.85 yuan. After that, the stock price started a continuous bullish trend. At the current stage in 2021, it has reached a maximum of 2,627 yuan. It can be said that Moutai has the highest stock price increase in the past twenty years. Reached 81 times. In other words, if you buy 10,000 yuan of Moutai stock from the first day of listing, the maximum cash you can realize this year is 810,000 yuan.
The target price of Moutai given by professional institutions
Moutai is a good stock, but unfortunately after the Spring Festival of 2021, after the stock hit a historical high of 2,627 yuan, the stock price suffered a sustained decline. The stock price of
has dropped by more than 36% from the high of 2,627 yuan in 2021 to this week's closing price of 1,671 yuan. Just after Kweichow Moutai released its 2021 semi-annual report, many professional institutions have given Moutai new target prices and maintained the rating of " overweight ". At present, 25 securities firms have released relevant research reports to comment on the reported performance, and all of them hold a "bullish" attitude .
The more representative views are:
CITIC Securities research report : The company's 2021Q2 operating income/net profit attributable to the parent increased by 11.6%/12.5% respectively, in line with expectations. Due to the significant improvement in fundamentals, the upward movement of the valuation center has strong support from fundamentals, and the current valuation is highly cost-effective. The one-year target price of is maintained at 3,000 yuan, corresponding to 64 times PE in 2022, and maintains a "buy" rating.
Northeast Securities research report : Kweichow Moutai is expected to have an EPS of 41.41/ in 2021-2023. 46.05/51.18 yuan, corresponding to a PE of 41/36/33 times. The company's leading position is stable and its growth path is clear. The "buy" rating is maintained, and the target of is adjusted to 2072 yuan..
Guosheng Securities research report : Maintain Kweichow Moutai buy rating, target price 2330 yuan .
Nomura Oriental International Securities Research Report : Maintain Kweichow Moutai Overweight rating, target price of 2423.85 yuan .
Guotai Junan Research Report : The 2021 semi-annual report performance is in line with expectations, quarterly tax fluctuations have subsided, and the overweight rating is maintained. Maintain EPS of 40.99, 47.51, and 54.65 yuan from 2021 to 2023. Taking into account the operational stability and high-end brand moat of Moutai, we give 45XPE in 2022 and lower the target price to 2,138 yuan (previous value: 2,588.63 yuan).
In one sentence, the vast majority of institutions continue to be optimistic about the future stock price performance of Kweichow Moutai . Which target price for
is more appropriate?
Judging from the research report data provided by the five major securities firms above, only CITIC Securities has the highest target price, with a corresponding price-to-earnings ratio of 64 times. The target price given by other institutions is between 2,000 yuan and 2,400 yuan, and the corresponding price-to-earnings ratio is about 45 times.
However, in Monk's view, the target price given by the institution is not important. What is important is actually what is the market-recognized Moutai price-to-earnings ratio that is more reasonable? This is the key.
Looking at Moutai’s earnings per share (EPS) over the years, since 2017, earnings per share have continued to rise, with earnings per share rising by about 6 yuan every year, but it will rise by 5 yuan in 2020 (affected by the new crown).
’s 2021 semi-annual report EPS = 19.63 yuan. The second half of the year is the peak season, and it can also be estimated that the full-year earnings per share in 2021 will be about 41 yuan. So, will Moutai's EPS reach 47 yuan in 2022? This is an unknown number.
As we all know, Moutai's EPS has increased in recent years, mainly due to the continuous increase in sales prices, and the increase in output is only a small amount.
This has a very real question. Will Moutai’s sales price increase every year?
If the selling price of Moutai increases by 20% every year, then the target price given by CITIC Securities is likely to be achieved, and it goes without saying that the target price given by other securities companies will be achieved.
If Moutai maintains its current price and does not increase its price in the future, , then Moutai's EPS will be at most 50 yuan. In this way, when the target price is 3,000 yuan, PE=60 times; when the target price is 2,000 yuan, PE=40 times; when the target price is 2,400 yuan, PE=48 times.
Observed from the data of net profit growth rate and operating income growth rate, Moutai has basically shown a declining trend from to since 2017. In other words, although earnings per share are increasing, the trend of further increasing the growth rate is weakening, and the performance growth continues to be questioned.
What is strange is that the stock price of Kweichow Moutai has been rising sharply in the secondary market since 2017, although its growth has been weakening. Monk believes that it is a divergence trend .
Moutai has only one way to improve the trend of continued decline in growth, which is to significantly increase the sales price again, or significantly increase production (the reality is that it is difficult to increase production. If the production is increased to a large extent, there will be a price increase That is a more difficult contradiction). Will the market sales price of
Moutai rise indefinitely? So, what is Moutai’s P/E ratio and is it acceptable to the market?
This may be a matter of opinion. Because many institutions have fled the stock significantly in 2021, including northbound funds.
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