Currently, TSMC's 5nm chip production process is in a mass production stage, while 2nm development work is on the way and may soon succeed in the next few years.

Currently, TSMC’s 5nm chip production process is in a mass production stage, while 2nm development work is on the way and may soon succeed in the next few years. In terms of chip manufacturing, like and Samsung , it is one of the top manufacturers in the world, and it is very willing to spend money on scientific research.

Some people believe that TSMC, as the leading chip manufacturer, can help European, American and mainland companies to produce high-end mobile phones, computers, and server chips, and it is unlikely to face operational problems. For Taiwanese, TSMC is the leading local company and the big brother that will never lose in global industrial competition.

However, TSMC is a company after all, and it is highly influenced by Taiwan’s environment and deeply controlled by American technology. In terms of chip manufacturing processes below 10 nanometers, although technical help from the United States has been reduced, it has been unable to resist pressure from the United States. To be honest, this is the tragedy of TSMC. It is destined that the more funds invested in 2nm chips, the more losses it may suffer.

If we study carefully, we will find that TSMC’s customers are mainly in the mainland market. In the heart of the United States, it feels insecure to be close to the mainland and let it contract chip production. Therefore, many Americans require TSMC to move its factories out of Taiwan and produce next-generation 2-nanometer chips in the United States.

We all know that under the influence of the United States, TSMC is not friendly to mainland companies. On the 14nm chip process, we are in danger of being pressured by the United States to comply with the ban on Huawei . Even if TSMC has no intention of implementing its policy of suppressing Huawei, Taiwan will put pressure on it, reduce chip supply, or even directly cut off supply. For mainland enterprises, such risks are like a sword hanging over their heads, with no sense of security.

Therefore, for the sake of supply chain security, mainland companies have begun to rearrange their layout. On the one hand, it has reduced orders to companies in South Korea and Taiwan that are susceptible to U.S. influence. On the other hand, it has increased its share of orders from domestic suppliers and even dispatched technical teams to help partners carry out technological transformation. This means that TSMC is no longer the main supplier to mainland customers, and its future supplier status will inevitably be marginalized.

During the 2020 epidemic, a very obvious omen is that Huawei has reduced orders from TSMC, and SMIC is becoming a major supplier. The large number of order contracts has, on the one hand, cultivated the technological accumulation of mainland chip companies, and on the other hand, it has brought funds and markets for sustainable operations, giving TSMC a strong rival.

We can imagine that TSMC’s chip manufacturing process has reached 1 nanometer, and even smaller manufacturing technologies have been mastered. However, mainland companies have not outsourced it, and the US market cannot meet market demand. The results can be imagined. More importantly, the United States, which hopes that TSMC will build a factory in the United States, may want to acquire technology and turn this company into a U.S. domicile. If this is the case, TSMC's fate will become even more unlucky in the future.

We can also see an important issue from the global chip consumption in recent years. Mainland China is the world's major chip importer, and consumer electronics products continue to increase and the market size is increasing. TSMC is close to the mainland. Without this market, there will be no meaning for the existence of chips. However, faced with the choice of Chinese and American suppliers, TSMC is easily affected by factors outside the market and cuts off the supply of to Chinese companies. TSMC has not taken any practical actions to dispel the supply chain security concerns of mainland companies. How can it expect the largest consumer market in Asia to accept the 2-nanometer chip it finally developed? Therefore, despite the fact that TSMC has made great progress in chip manufacturing technology and is very talented in researching 2-nanometer chips, it may not have a sales market, it may not be able to find customers, and it will eventually become a failed scientific research investment.