According to the China Review News Agency, the number of local confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Taiwan continues to increase sharply, with Taipei and New Taipei becoming the hardest hit areas. Politicians from the Democratic Progressive Party criticized New Taipei City for insufficient screening and epidemic prevention hotels, but affirmed Taiwan People's Party Chairman and Taipei Mayor Ke Wenzhe for his advanced deployment. It is not difficult to understand the motive of "praising Ke and defeating Hou", and it is obvious that he has high hopes Using the three-legged pattern to break up Blue and White allows the Green Camp fisherman to benefit, but this operation also has risks.
If we look at Taipei City, except for the 1994 mayoral election when Chen Shui-bian won by relying on Zhao Shaokang and Huang Dazhou to divide the votes of the blue camp, the DPP has never won the Taipei mayoral seat alone. Although Tsai Ing-wen has won more than half of the votes in Taipei City in the past two general elections, county and mayor elections are not as "general elections" as Taiwan's leaders, and it is more difficult to handle cross-strait, reunification and independence issues. Originally, after a year of internal propaganda, the popularity of "Minister of Health and Welfare" Chen Shizhong had greatly increased, and he seemed to be a living chess piece for the Democratic Progressive Party to win the mayor of Taipei next year; but the recent outbreak of the epidemic has caused Chen Shizhong to fall from the altar, and the DPP has The party's chances of winning the Taipei mayor's seat in a one-on-one election next year are greatly reduced, so it has to find ways to split the opponent's camp. The first two parties to be divided are naturally the People's Party and the Chinese Kuomintang.
Although Taipei City is currently governed by the People's Party, deputy mayor Huang Shanshan, who is most likely to succeed Ko Wenzhe and is running, has been far behind Jiang Wanan, a possible candidate from the Chinese Kuomintang, in the polls. For the DPP, it would be best if it directly obtains a majority, but if that doesn't work, it can help the People's Party and let the People's Party take away more votes from voters who hate the DPP. This will reduce the number of votes won by the Chinese Kuomintang candidates and allow the DPP to win more votes. The party has the opportunity to repeat the situation in 1994 when Chen Shui-bian won the mayor of Taipei with only 43% of the vote.
However, "praising Ke and defeating Hou" may also be a high-risk double-edged sword for the DPP. Perhaps next year’s mayoral elections in Taipei, Hsinchu, or even Keelung will benefit the DPP candidates, but don’t forget to compare the non-districting of political parties with the “general election” in 2020. votes, it can be found that the majority of People’s Party supporters voted For Tsai Ing-wen, coupled with Ko Wenzhe's long-term pro-green background in the past, if the DPP praises Ke too much, and his performance is not up to expectations and is cast aside by the people, if Ko Wenzhe comes out to fight for the "election" in 2024, the majority will be divided by then Will my vote go to the KMT candidate or to the DPP candidate? It's actually hard to say.
Therefore, for the DPP, it is of course necessary to attack the Chinese Kuomintang and Hou Youyi, but the extent to which they should support Ke has to be carefully considered. After all, in the past, there was not much difference in the basic bases of the two major parties, blue and green. In 2016 and February The DPP's big victory in 2020 has its own special background. If Ko Wenzhe really attracts more green votes than blue votes in 2024, the DPP will lose the 2024 "general election" even if it gains a small profit in the 2022 local elections. , obviously the gain outweighs the loss.
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