Recently, a US investment institution released the latest research report pointing out that due to the reduction in server orders, power management IC (PMIC) may enter a downward cycle.
The report pointed out that the semiconductor giant TI has also re-strengthened its layout in the consumer product market including PCs. There is a high probability that PMIC oversupply will occur early .
reports that TI is notifying customers that the tight supply situation of PMIC will be relieved as soon as possible in the second half of this year. According to the latest supply chain survey results, TI can maintain normal delivery times as early as September, while other related suppliers will not be able to supply normally until the end of the year. The
report pointed out that under the current environment, the number of server OEM orders has decreased by 10% to 20%. In this context, PMIC-related suppliers will further face inventory and pricing strategy risks. By the third quarter of this year, inventory levels will be maintained for 4 to 6 months, which is higher than last year's average of 2 months, and this will impact on shipping prices .
It has long been reported that the shortage has improved, but the actual delivery time has continued to lengthen.
As early as November last year, when Micron took the lead in announcing the mass production of 176-layer 3D NAND, sources pointed out that after entering the fourth quarter of 2021, PMIC and flash memory The shortage of main control chips continues to improve (this may also contribute to the subsequent oversupply in the flash memory field).
However, in November last year, DDR5 memory continued to be out of stock. The main reason was also pointed to the serious shortage of PMIC. It is said that due to very limited production capacity, the delivery cycle takes about 35 weeks. Even the purchase price of the PMIC used in DDR5 is 10 times more expensive than the PMIC used in DDR4, which is staggering.
Until March this year, there were still reports of PMIC delivery delays being extended.
In December last year, Susquehanna Financial Group released a report stating that the overall chip delivery cycle continued to extend to 22.3 weeks in November, setting a record for the longest delivery time. Susquehanna analyst Chris Rolland pointed out in a research report that "...we had hoped for a significant reversal," but the delivery delays for PMICs and MCUs were particularly severe, causing the overall delivery time to be further lengthened.
As of March this year, Susquehanna’s new research report shows that the global chip delivery time increased by 3 days month-on-month in February, reaching 26.2 weeks. This means that chip buyers have to wait more than half a year on average, continuing to set the longest record. MCU is the most in short supply, with delivery time as high as 35.7 weeks in February, followed by PMIC, which is 1.5 weeks longer than February.
html There is a shortage of 18-inch wafers, but the cost of PMIC switching to 12-inch wafers is under pressure
In January this year, European investment institutions reported that mature wafer foundry processes may face oversupply starting in 2023, and the shortage of semiconductor production capacity will also be alleviated simultaneously. The report even pointed out that as market demand slows down and accelerates, overcapacity may even begin as early as the second half of 2022.
A major background to the tendency to alleviate the shortage of production capacity in mature processes is that including PMICs, display driver ICs, etc. are moving to 12-inch wafer fabs, which has continuously reduced the production capacity pressure of 8-inch wafer fabs. In addition, against the background of increasing overall semiconductor demand and the rising threshold of advanced process technology, foundries such as GlobalFoundries, UMC, and SMIC are also continuing to expand production in mature process fields to further alleviate production capacity pressure.
However, until mid-April this year, market news still showed that global PMIC was still in short supply. Part of the reason is that although some PMIC manufacturers are turning to 12-inch fabs for production, the cost-effectiveness is still not comparable to that of 8-inch fabs, resulting in 8-inch wafers still being the main source of PMIC production capacity.
SEMI Taiwan President Cao Shilun said that in the next five years, wafer manufacturers will add 25 new 8-inch wafer production lines to meet the needs of analog ICs, PMICs, panel driver ICs, power semiconductors including MOSFETs, MCUs and Application requirements related to various semiconductor components including sensors.
Original manufacturers either take over foundries or produce them in-house. PMICs are heading towards price cuts
In order to solve the problem of shortage of ICs such as PMICs, storage manufacturers have taken frequent actions.
It is reported that in the past, most PMIC chips were provided by Renesas. However, after Renesas’ supply became apparent that it could not meet market demand, Taiwanese manufacturers such as Richtek and Amtek also joined in the production of PMICs. But obviously, the huge market demand is still unmet.
To this end, Samsung started mass production of PMICs as early as 2021, and in May of that year it also officially released three PMICs that can be used for DDR5.
SK Hynix’s related actions can be traced back to at least 2017. In that year, SK Hynix announced the establishment of “SK Hynix System IC Company ” focusing on wafer foundry business, and cooperated with Taiwanese semiconductor IP supplier Liwang Reached a two-year embedded non-volatile memory (eNVM) contract worth NT$180 million to better participate in panel driver IC, PMIC, CMOS Competition in Sensor and other fields.
In the early days, SK Hynix System IC Company mainly used 8-inch wafer manufacturing technology. By October 2021, or because it was not satisfied with the development progress of its own wafer foundry business, SK Hynix announced a wholly-owned acquisition of Key Foundry, a professional Korean wafer foundry. Key Foundry all uses 8-inch wafers for its production and focuses on analog chip foundry. Its main products include semiconductor products such as PMIC, panel driver IC and MCU. At the end of May this year, the transaction was close to completion. After acquiring Key Foundry, SK Hynix's wafer foundry capacity will reach 200,000 pieces of 8-inch wafers.
In April this year, there was news in the industry that the prices of mature wafer foundry processes were frozen and increased. According to sources, mature wafer foundry process manufacturers have successively informed IC design customers that they will not raise mature process foundry prices in the short term. According to industry analysis, the frozen increase should be related to the weakening market demand for large-size panel driver ICs, driver and touch integrated chips (TDDI), and PMIC, resulting in rising inventories.
In May, storage manufacturer ADATA also stated that the supply situation of PMIC and graphics cards, which were previously severely out of stock, has been alleviated , which will help the demand of PC and other storage-related industries to get on the right track.
Soon after, some media revealed that some IC products, including PMICs, panel driver ICs, and low-end MCUs, were shipped at reduced prices .
In today's post-epidemic era, consumer electronics products are no longer skyrocketing. The world is also facing challenges from factors such as inflationary pressure and the Russia-Ukraine war, and terminal consumption continues to be sluggish. Against the backdrop of falling product volumes and prices, inventory backlogs have gradually become the norm.
and The PMIC shortage problem that has plagued the storage industry for a long time seems to have indeed moved towards oversupply ...
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