Ma Youyuan
Investment consulting license number: Z0015975
Shipping/container capacity
[Important information]
1. Dry bulk freight rate: BDI reported 1592 points on August 10, +1.8% month-on-month, -52.8% year-on-year.
2. Container freight rate: SCFI container freight index for the week of August 5th was 3739.72, -3.8% month-on-month, -11 year-on-year .5%, of which the container freight rate between Shanghai and the West is US$6,499/FEU, -2.9% month-on-month, and +17.0% year-on-year; the container freight rate between Shanghai and Europe is US$5,166/TEU, -4.6% month-on-month, and -30.4% year-on-year.
3. The People's Bank of China released the second quarter monetary policy report, pointing out that it must increase the implementation of prudent monetary policy and insist on not engaging in "flood irrigation"; the Central Bank expects that the increase in CPI will increase in the second half of the year, and we must be wary of structural problems. Inflationary pressures.
4. Due to the impact of high temperature and drought, the water level of the Rhine River has dropped significantly. It is expected that key locations will be almost impassable on August 12, and the European shipping artery is facing a crisis of interruption.
5. The 120-day "transition period" set by the EU to ban the import of Russian coal expires at midnight on the 10th, when the EU's coal embargo on Russia will officially take effect.
6. Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on August 10 showed that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July this year was unchanged from the previous month, with the previous value of 1.3%, and the expected value of 0.2%; the CPI in July increased by 8.5% year-on-year, with the previous value of 9.1%, Expected 8.7%.
[Market Outlook]
In terms of containers, the U.S. CPI in July was +8.5% year-on-year, lower than expected, and the month-on-month increase was flat. interest rate hike expectations in September 75BP have cooled down, but inflationary pressure is still high, affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and global high prices. The impact of inflation and demand-side pressure in European and American countries are gradually emerging. China's new export orders PMI in July was only 47.4, down 1.9 from the previous month. It is expected that export growth will weaken significantly in the fourth quarter. It is expected that freight rates will remain volatile and weak in the short term. In the medium and long term, the supply and demand pattern of container transportation will gradually reverse, and the medium and long-term trend of freight rates will decline significantly.
In terms of dry bulk cargo, the shipping capacity of dry bulk carriers cannot be significantly increased in the short term. On the demand side, affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and global high inflation, the demand for dry bulk cargo is facing greater pressure. Although the daily consumption of domestic power plants has increased recently under the background of high temperature weather, there is still less imported coal due to the inverted coal prices at home and abroad. Natural gas Against the background of rising coal power prices in Europe, demand for coal is still expected to increase due to energy shortages. However, coal inventories at European ports are currently high, and the import speed of coal may slow down in the short term. On 8/10, the EU The coal embargo has officially come into effect, and subsequent long-distance coal routes are expected to boost freight rates. In terms of iron ore, the profits of Chinese steel mills have recently recovered and short-term demand has improved. However, the demand for steel in major economies such as Japan and South Korea has slowed down in the context of recession, and the medium and long-term demand for iron ore is still facing greater pressure. Focus on China's infrastructure development in the second half of the year. In terms of grain, Ukraine ’s fourth batch of grain has been shipped, and we will follow up on the shipment progress. Overall, iron ore shipments are expected to increase in the short term and stabilize freight rates, but freight rates still face downward pressure in the medium and long term.
Soybean/meal
[External market situation]
The overnight CBOT soybean index fell 1.8% to close at 1,432.69 cents/bu, and the US soybean meal index fell 3.43% to close at 413.5 US dollars/short ton.
[Related information]
1. Oil World: Compared with July last year, the United States and the four major South American exporters dropped by 850,000 tons. From September last year to July this year, the cumulative decline was 8.8 million tons. The biggest decrease is due to the decline in the number of purchases from China. At the same time, the number of purchases to Indonesia , Pakistan , Thailand, Turkey and Argentina has also declined;
2. Oil World: This year's Brazil soybean production has finally proved Higher than expected.The Brazilian Oilseeds Association increased its production estimate by 800,000 tons to 126 million tons, and revised up soybean production in some dry areas. This magazine raised Brazil's soybean crushing volume in 2022 to 48.9 million tons, from 47.8 million tons a year ago, and exports were raised to 77.2 million tons, compared with 86.1 million tons in the previous year;
3.USDA export sales report Report forecast: Analysts predict that U.S. soybean export sales are expected to increase by 200,000-900,000 tons in the week ending August 4, including -100,000-+200,000 tons in 21/22, and a net increase of 300,000 tons in 22/23. 700,000 tons;
4. My agricultural products: As of the week of August 5, domestic soybean stocks were 514.97 million tons, a decrease of 268,100 tons, or 4.95%, from last week, and a decrease of 1,595,300 tons, or 23.65%, from last year; soybean meal inventory is 896,900 tons, a decrease of 34,700 tons, or 3.72%, from last year, and a decrease of 3.72% from last year. A reduction of 93,900 tons, a decrease of 9.48%
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: Yesterday's US CPI data showed that inflation was lower than expected, commodities generally rose in night trading, but the macro attributes of the US beans themselves were relatively weak, the market rose and fell , and the pressure level continued to be maintained Previously judged at 1450 cents. The dry weather in the production areas continues, and China's import profit window continues to open. There is still support below the U.S. soybeans, and the shock judgment of 1,400-1,450 cents is maintained. The strategy recommends focusing on high-altitude or rolling operations;
2. Arbitrage: M91/M11-1 positive set continues to be maintained;
3. Options: sell M2301-C-3700 & buy M2301-P-3650 to hold (opinions are for reference only, not for action) Basis for buying and selling)
Oils and fats sector
[External disk impact]
Cbot The main price of US soybean oil increased by 1.61% to 65.66 cents/pound; the main price of BMD crude palm oil fell by 0.46% to 4106 ringgit/ton.
[Important information]
1. MPOB released a report at noon today, which was generally in line with market expectations. The ending inventory accumulated around 120,000 tons, and the report was overall neutral. It should be noted that the production recovery of Malay , which was supposed to be in the production increase season, is not as expected, which reflects the impact of Malay labor problems on production.
2.AmSpec: Malaysia's export volume of palm oil from August 1 to 10 was 339,669 tons, and the export volume in the same period in July was 308,290 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10.18%. 3.ITS: Malaysia’s palm oil exports from August 1 to 10 were 364,910 tons, an increase of 10.48% from the 330,310 tons exported in the same period in July. SPPOMA: From August 1 to 5, 2022, Malaysia's palm oil yield increased by 9.8%, the oil yield increased by 0.39%, and the output increased by 7.74%.
3. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture has proposed to the government to allow the country to export rapeseed to the Far East and the Baltic Sea enclave of Kaliningrad, which borders Asian countries. The Ministry of Agriculture said in a draft proposal released on Wednesday that exports would be allowed for one year starting from September 1. Russia produced 2.8 million tons of oilseed rape in 2021. It restricted the export of rapeseed from April 1 to August 31 to protect the supply of domestic rapeseed oil producers.
[Trading strategy]
1. Oil continued to fluctuate slightly yesterday, MPOB report In line with expectations, it is neutral. The current oil and fats will change in the short term according to the cost end, the quotation of the origin and the macroeconomic expectations. However, palm oil is affected by the willingness of the origin to buy ships and the arrival at the port is less than expected. Domestic oil and fat inventories continue to remain tight. The short-term support is more obvious, but the long-term trend is still bearish, so the current trend is range-bound. If the subsequent arrival of palm oil in Hong Kong is less than expected, it may drive the 09 oil and fat contract to run strongly. It is recommended to focus on short-term operations within the range.
2. Arbitrage: Continue to hold part of Oi-Y, with the target near 2300. If it falls below 1850, some of the previous holding orders can be taken first.
3. Options: Stay on the sidelines.
(The above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
Corn/Corn Starch
[Important information]
1. According to Mysteel agricultural product survey data, the operating rate of corn starch continues to decline this week, the demand from downstream industries is weak, the delivery speed of corn starch is slow, the factory production and sales pressure is high, and the production of corn starch continues to decline this week. , the operating rate hit a new low this year. This week (August 4 to August 10), the total national corn processing volume was 430,500 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from last week's corn consumption; the weekly national corn starch output was 200,300 tons, a decrease of 1.99 tons from last week's output. Thousands of tons. The operating rate was 39.21%, a decrease of 3.90% from last week.
2. According to Mysteel agricultural product survey data, the corn starch industry inventory continued to decline this week, and the decline was significant. The weekly starch output fell to a new low and the early low-price contracts in the Northeast region were shipped intensively, resulting in a significant decline in inventory. As of August 10, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises was 1.069 million tons, a decrease of 61,000 tons from last week, a decrease of 5.4%, a monthly decrease of 7.57%, and a year-on-year increase of 15.52%.
3. According to CONAB, the national commodity supply company affiliated with the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, as of August 6, Brazil’s first crop of corn harvest rate in 2021/22 was 99.5%, compared with 99.4% last week and 100% in the same period last year. Brazil's second crop corn harvest rate in 2021/22 is 79.8%, revised to 61.2% last week and 61.5% in the same period last year.
4. Analysts expect the USDA report to show that all wheat production in the United States in 2022/23 is 1.791 billion bushels, of which winter wheat production is expected to be 1.203 billion bushels.
[Trading strategy]
1. Unilateral: The weather in the United States is hot and inflation is slowing, and U.S. corn rebounded slightly. In the later period, domestic grain surplus will gradually tighten, spot prices in the south have strengthened slightly, and futures prices are relatively underestimated, and are expected to rebound in shock.
2. Arbitrage: wait and see.
3. Options: Buy c2301-C-2740. (The above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
hog
【Market Information】
1. Spot quotation: Yesterday evening, the price of live pigs across the country was raised. The price of pigs in Northeast China was 20.2-20.4 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.2 yuan/kg from yesterday; in North China, the price was 21-21.2 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.2 yuan/kg; in East China, it was 21-21.2 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.2 yuan/kg; -21.2 yuan/kg, up 0.2 yuan/kg catties; 23.4-24 yuan/kg in South China, remaining stable; 21.4-21.8 yuan/kg in southwest China, remaining stable;
2. Piglet and sow price: As of the week of July 29, the sow price in two yuan was 1884 Yuan, down 4 Yuan, piglet price The price was 801 yuan, down 48 yuan;
3. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs : On August 10, the "Agricultural Products Wholesale Price Index 200" was 120.60, an increase of 0.06 points, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 121.29, an increase of 0.08 points. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 29.16 yuan/kg, up 0.9%; beef 76.86 yuan/kg, up 0.8%; mutton 67.05 yuan/kg, up 1.0%; eggs 10.49 yuan/kg, up 0.8%; white strip chicken 18.66 yuan/kg, down 2.1%;
4. Boya News: Farmers in the Northeast are still bullish and reluctant to sell, but it has little impact on the overall market. Boosted by the Ghost Festival , consumption in some areas of the country has improved, and the operating rate of butchery companies has increased slightly. The price of white pork in some wholesale markets in the north has increased by 200-500 yuan/ton, and the amount of pigs imported from abroad has increased, making procurement more difficult for butchery companies. Big, market sentiment is average.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: The recent decline in spot sentiment has begun to gradually weaken. Although the previous rise has overdrafted pig price expectations, the overall supply of live pigs is still tight in August. Pay attention to the support of the 19500 line, and participate in the rebound with light positions. ;
2. Arbitrage: With the current The price of goods has stabilized, and it is recommended that Qingcang participate in the LH91 full package (the above opinions are for reference only, not as a basis for entering the market)
chicken
[Important information]
1. White feather broiler chicken: The price of Shandong broiler chicken is expected to stabilize tonight at 4.65 yuan/jin. . ( Zhuochuang Information )
2. White-feather broiler chicks: Tomorrow, the price of chicken chicks from Shandong Dachang will increase by 0.1 to 3.7 yuan/feather. (Zhuo Chuang Information)
3. Split products: On August 10, the price of frozen large breasts in North China and Northeast China was stable, with a transaction price range of 10.6-10.7 yuan/kg (Zhuo Chuang Information).
4. Zhuochuang Information: Zhuochuang Information monitored the emergence of white-feather broiler sample companies in the week of July 29-8/4, with a total of 48.658 million chickens, a month-on-month increase of 0.52%, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.28%.
5. Zhuochuang Information: The average operating rate of key domestic white-feather broiler slaughtering enterprises in the week of July 29-8/4 was 65.65%, a month-on-month increase of 8.94 percentage points; the average storage capacity of frozen products was 71.71%, a month-on-month increase of 3.47 percentage points.
6. Zhuochuang Information: China’s white-feather broiler chicken production volume in July was 415 million, +2.7% month-on-month and -11.9% year-on-year. From January to July 2022, the total slaughter volume of white-feathered broiler chickens was 2.676 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%.
7. In the first half of 2022, 1.16 billion poultry were produced in Shandong Province, a year-on-year decrease of 6.0%; poultry meat production was 1.713 million tons, a decrease of 6.1%; poultry egg production was 2.157 million tons, an increase of 8.6%. At the end of the second quarter, the province's poultry population was 775 million, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%.
[Market Outlook]
On the supply side, 415 million white-feathered broiler chickens were sold in China in July, +2.7% month-on-month and -11.9% year-on-year. The sales of raw chickens continue to recover, but it is still not as good as the same period in previous years. The price of chickens continues to rebound, catalyzed by the National Day. Affected by the accelerated slaughter of raw chickens in Shandong in the early stage, it is expected that the number of raw chickens sold this week will decrease, supporting the strength of raw chicken prices. Although the slaughterhouse operation and storage capacity both increased last week, the inventory in the hands of dealers is currently low. It is expected that the subsequent divided inventory will gradually be transferred from the slaughterhouse to the dealers, and the inventory in the slaughterhouse will be digested. On the consumer side, the epidemic situation in Sanya, Zhejiang and other regions has still partially rebounded recently. Pig prices have fluctuated within a narrow range. The chicken consumer side is still under pressure. However, boosted by the double festival, segmented products are expected to stop falling and rebound. Overall, the industry chain is expected to perform strongly in the near future. On the cost side, in the short term, the fourth batch of Ukrainian grain has been shipped, and exports are gradually recovering. Grain exports are expected to reach 3 million tons per month within 4-6 weeks. Feed pressure is expected to continue to ease as Ukraine's exports resume. However, against the background of global inflation and food shortages, overall in the second half of the year, supported by high feed costs and rising pig prices, raw chicken prices are still expected to remain high.
eggs
【Important information】
1. Spot price: Yesterday, egg prices across the country were stable and fell. The average price in the main production areas was 4.47 yuan/jin, which was 0.07 lower than the price on the previous trading day. The average price in the main sales areas was 4.84 yuan/jin, which was lower than the price on the previous trading day. Down 0.07. Today, egg prices across the country have stopped falling and stabilized. The prices in the Beijing market are stable to strong. The mainstream wholesale prices of Shimen, Xinfadi, , Huilongguan and other mainstream prices are 206 yuan/44 pounds, which is the same as yesterday's price. As of 7 o'clock in the morning, the total arrivals on the Great Ocean Road are There are only 3 cars, the arrival is small, and the goods are shipped quickly. The mainstream wholesale price is 205-215 yuan/44 pounds, which is five yuan higher than yesterday's price. The Shanghai market is stable and falling today. The price of ordinary pink eggs is 218 yuan/45 jins, which is stable compared with yesterday. The price of red eggs is 130-131 yuan/27.5 jins, which is 3 yuan lower than yesterday’s price.
2. Zhuochuang data: The number of laying hens in the country in July 2022 was 1.194 billion, an increase of 1.1% month-on-month and 1.9% year-on-year, in line with expectations. In July, the monthly emergence of layer hen seedlings from sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for 50% of the country) was 34.94 million birds, a decrease of 2.9% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%.
3. According to Zhuochuang data: the number of laying hens eliminated in the country’s main production areas in the week of August 5 was 17.99 million, an increase of 10.9% from last week. According to Zhuochuang Information’s monitoring statistics on the -day age of culled chickens in key production areas across the country, the average age of culled chickens in the week of August 4 was 522 days, an increase of 6 days from the previous week.
4. According to Zhuochuang data: Egg sales in the national representative sales area in the week of August 4 were 7,372 tons, a decrease of 1.5% from last week.
5. According to Zhuochuang data: both production link inventory and circulation relief inventory increased in the week of August 4. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.12 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 0.8 days. An increase of 0.03 days compared with the previous week.
6. Yesterday, the prices of culled chickens in the main production areas across the country were mostly stable and a small part fell. The prices in the production area Hubei fell. The average price in the main production areas of Tao chicken was 5.79 yuan/jin, which was 0.02 yuan lower than the price on the previous trading day.
[Operation Suggestions]
1. Unilateral: On the egg supply side, the production stock in July is still relatively low, and the stock is expected to remain low in the next few months. The egg production rate is low in high-temperature weather, and the egg inventory is low. Comprehensive It seems that the supply of eggs is tight. On the demand side, food factories have finished stocking up before the Mid-Autumn Festival . In the past two days, epidemics have begun to break out in various places. Summer consumption may decline slightly. The spot price of eggs will mainly fluctuate in the short term. However, there are still expected eggs such as stocking for the start of school before September. Prices are expected to have little room to continue falling. In terms of futures , the September contract fell below 4,000. This price corresponds to the expected low future inventory and peak season consumption. It has a valuable advantage. Yesterday, the short positions in the September contract were closed and the position dropped. The price may still increase in the short term. rose. The October contract was weak in August and September, but it has now fallen to a low level. You can consider short selling after it rebounds to a high level.
2, arbitrage: wait and see. (The above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
white sugar
[Important information]
1. Sugar production in the main sugarcane-producing areas in central and southern Brazil increased by 8.4% to 3.3 million tons in the second half of July compared with the same period last year, due to sugar mills increasing Great sugar production efficiency. A report released by industry group Unica on Wednesday showed that sugar mills allocated 47.7% of all harvested cane to sugar production, up from 46.2% in the same period last year, as sugar provides higher financial returns than ethanol sales. Sugar mills crushed 48.93 million tons of sugar cane in the second half of July, an increase of 4.3% compared with the same period last year, and ethanol production was 2.41 billion liters, an increase of 2.78% year-on-year. Sugar cane crushing and sugar production exceeded market expectations. Dry weather in July increased the sugar content of sugar cane and harvesting operations, which improved the performance of sugar mills. Unica said ethanol sales in July fell 6.6% compared with the same period last year. Recent changes in fuel taxes in Brazil have made ethanol less competitive than gasoline at the pump.
2. According to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as of August 2, the net long positions of hedge funds and large speculators raw sugar decreased again by 29,665 lots from the previous week to 34,438 lots, which was 20 The lowest level in early April this year, economic recession concerns and lower crude oil continued to stimulate fund to short . The total positions increased by 37,624 lots from the previous week to 760,093 lots.
3. The President of the Philippines has rejected a proposal to import up to 300,000 tons of sugar and declined to authorize it, his press secretary said on Wednesday, despite an earlier announcement by industry regulators approving the plan. The notice was posted on the Sugar Regulatory Authority (SRA) website on Wednesday afternoon but was later taken down. The initially announced plan included the purchase of raw and refined sugar, with the SRA stating that the cargo must arrive before November 30. In the crop year ending August 31, Philippines raw sugar production is expected to be 1.8 million tons, a 16% decrease from the previous year, which will lead to a sharp decline in stocks. The SRA said in June that the supply situation had worsened due to damage to sugar crops caused by Typhoon in December, other adverse weather conditions, and legal disputes over past approvals for imported sugar.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: US inflation data dropped, dry and hot weather may limit EU and domestic sugar production, and raw sugar continues to rebound. Domestic futures prices are discounted to spot prices. As domestic temperatures rise, consumption will gradually increase. Coupled with the reduction in imported supply, domestic supply will gradually tighten. Zhengtang may be expected to stabilize and rebound in the near future.
2. Arbitrage: wait and see.
3. Options: short-term buy SR301-C-5600. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for market entry)
cotton - cotton yarn
[External disk impact]
The price of the main ICE US cotton contract rose sharply overnight, and the December contract rose 1.43 cents/pound (1.44%) to 100.47 cents/ pound.
[Important information]
1. According to the China Cotton Information Network, up to now, most cotton areas across the country are growing well overall, and the weather conditions are more suitable for cotton growth. The number of Fuqian peaches and Fuqian peaches has increased compared with last year. Judging from the field survey of this website in July, Xinjiang cotton areas did not experience extreme weather during the growth stage of new cotton. The effective accumulated temperature is high, which is suitable for cotton growth. The proportion of autumn peaches is small, and Fuqian peaches and Futing peaches are well developed. The cotton growth process is advanced by about 7 to 10 days. If there is no extreme weather in the later period, the cotton bolls will basically mature and the probability of increasing production will be greatly increased. At the same time, based on the latest meteorological data and preliminary estimates of this website's production prediction model , Xinjiang's cotton yield per mu is expected to be about 390-410 kg/mu, a slight increase from last year.
2. According to feedback from some cotton supervision warehouses in Xinjiang, the volume of Xinjiang cotton truck shipments out of Xinjiang has continued to increase significantly (North Xinjiang Kuitun , Shihezi and other stations have performed relatively well), and railway shipments have also shown restorative growth. , at the end of the year, Xinjiang’s cotton shipment volume ushered in a long-awaited explosion. Aksu and Kuitun supervisory warehouses stated that the cotton truck outbound volume in the first week of August increased by 40-50% compared with mid-to-late July, and as the main contract of Zheng cotton recovered 14,000 yuan/ton, the sales and warehouse transfers of cotton processing enterprises Enthusiasm will remain high.
3, China Cotton Network Special News: As of the end of July, 90% of cotton planting in India has been completed, and the remaining cotton will be sown in August-September. The final cotton planting area is expected to be around 13.115 million hectares, a slight increase from last year. According to local people in India, the cotton planting area in India this year should be around 13 million hectares. The Indian Cotton Association predicts more than 13 million hectares, and the US Department of Agriculture predicts 13.2 million hectares (harvest area).
4. On August 10, the actual transaction of reserve cotton was 0 tons, and the transaction rate was 0%. Since July 13, the total planned incoming volume is 125,000 tons, the total transaction volume is 58,480 tons, and the total transaction rate is 46.8%.
[Operational Suggestions]
1. Unilateral: Cotton fundamentals are still relatively bearish, and cotton supply is sufficient. However, in the demand-side market, even after the epidemic prevention and control is relaxed and the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton is inverted, demand is still very poor, and product inventory is high. , the operating rate of textile mills is low, and the Xinjiang cotton problem has an obvious impact on demand. However, the current cotton price has been low and the value is highlighted, and the rate of high-quality cotton in the United States is very low, and the abandonment rate is high. The USDA report in August may once again reduce the production of US cotton, and US cotton is expected to strengthen in the short term. Long and short factors are intertwined, and domestic cotton will maintain a volatile trend in the short term. Cotton yarn follows the cotton market trend.
2. Arbitrage: short-term internal and external arbitrage, external strength and internal weakness.
3. Options: Cotton prices have fluctuated and rebounded. In the short term, a bearish strategy may be considered. (The above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
peanuts
[Important information]
The domestic peanut market operated smoothly yesterday. A small amount of peanuts are on the market sporadically in the Nanyang production area of Henan Province. The price of peanuts in currency is 5.6-5.8 yuan/jin. The price is for reference only. Markets in sales areas are gradually being launched, traders are in a wait-and-see mood, quotations in some areas are weak, and growers are obviously reluctant to sell.As for Chen peanuts, according to production areas, the price of cold storage finished products remains at 5.05-5.20 yuan/jin, and currency peanuts have basically bottomed out. The price of 308 currency rice in Northeast production areas is 4.75-4.80 yuan/jin. The price of currency rice in the Baisha production area in Henan is 4.50-4.70 yuan/catty, and the price of large peanuts is 4.45-4.60 yuan/catty. The transaction price depends on the quality; the price of currency rice in the Shandong production area is 4.30-4.50 yuan/catty. Arrivals at oil plants are sporadic, and Luhua factory has basically no arrivals and is in a state of complete shutdown. The transaction price of some factories is 8,600-9,000 yuan/ton; COFCO imported rice arrivals remain stable.
Peanut Oil: The domestic peanut oil market is running weakly, and oil factories have lowered their quotations to promote order transactions, but the effect is average. Individual customers in the south are picking up goods sporadically, and the number of new orders is still limited. The startup rate of domestic peanut oil companies is low, and the overall supply and demand pattern is obvious. In terms of price, the current domestic quoted price for first-grade ordinary peanut oil is 16,000 yuan/ton; the market price for small pressed strong-flavor peanut oil varies, with the mainstream quoted price being 18,000 yuan/ton.
[Operational Suggestions]
Unilateral: Yesterday’s peanut shock, the fundamentals have not changed much for the time being, it is recommended to continue to hold long orders in the 01 contract.
html March spread: The 10 contract is the delivery of old peanuts, causing futures to return to the spot. In view of the price difference between old and new peanuts, the 10-1 price difference may go lower. There are now signs of moving positions to another month, because the price of old peanuts is on the high side this year, but it will not go out of the -800 price difference last year. Last week, the part that tried to exceed -300 will continue to be held.
current strategy: The basis is around -650, but there is still room for growth in the peanut market, so you can choose a higher point to operate. Stay on the sidelines for now.
(The above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)