The game that the whole world has been enjoying these past two days is to find out where Pelosi is. It is reported that the number of global users tracking SPAR19 (allegedly Pelosi's landline) through the "flightradar24" software has exceeded 60,000. Right, they're all tracking where Pelosi has been? Due to so-called "security considerations," neither Pelosi's team nor the U.S. government disclosed the exact time of Pelosi's visit this time, and when she will visit Taiwan is even listed as unknown.
At this time, there were still less than 30,000, and now there are more than 60,000.
Release of smoke bombs
In order to so-called ensure security, the United States has racked its brains and used a variety of methods. The first is to release smoke bombs. Foreign media including Bloomberg and Deutsche Welle claimed that Pelosi would visit Asia on the 29th, but deliberately did not specify whether it was local time in the United States or Beijing time. Therefore, some bloggers speculated that Pelosi had left in the early morning of the 29th Beijing time. (US Eastern Time on the 28th), but in fact Pelosi announced and signed the US "Chip and Science Act" in the US House of Representatives in the early morning of the 29th Beijing time.
Not only that, the US military also cooperated and put up a fascination array. Early in the morning on July 30, a U.S. military C-40 (B737-700) business jet of the same model as Pelosi’s fleet took off from Japan and flew over the Western Pacific northeast of Taiwan. It seems that they want to play a "blind cat encounters a dead mouse" trick to confuse China.
And Pelosi’s real departure time is July 30, Beijing time. Pelosi’s fleet includes two special aircraft, including a U.S. Air Force C-40 (B737-700) business jet (SPAR19 AE503D) and a modified Gulfstream C-37B GV-SP (G550). Both aircraft belong to the 89th Airlift Wing of the U.S. Air Force and are mainly responsible for global special airlift missions for U.S. government and Department of Defense officials. U.S. congressional delegations often use such a dual-plane combination when visiting overseas.
Pelosi’s fleet took off from Andrews Air Force Base . It has arrived in Hawaii and will fly to Japan after taking a short rest. PS: Since the C-40 has a range of only more than 5,000 kilometers, it needs to be refueled in Hawaii. As for which plane Pelosi is on, according to Pelosi's level, it is most likely on the more luxurious and comfortable Gulfstream .
Regarding Pelosi’s threatened visit to Taiwan, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan would seriously violate the one-China principle and the provisions of the three Sino-US joint communiqués . China will definitely take strong measures Measures must be taken to respond resolutely and counterattack. Some Chinese experts have suggested that if U.S. lawmakers decide to proceed with the visit to Taiwan, a military response will be adopted.
The US military has expressed concerns about this. Although there is news that the US military will provide security for Pelosi's visit, according to the latest US aircraft carrier (two-attack) dynamics provided by the US media USNI, the US Navy's current aircraft carriers (two-attack) that can be dispatched normally include "Reagan" "USS" aircraft carrier strike group, "USS Lincoln" aircraft carrier strike group, "USS America" amphibious alert group, "USS Tripoli" amphibious alert group and "USS Essex" amphibious alert group. These 6 aircraft carriers (two attack aircraft) can carry more than 200 fighter aircraft in total. They are considered escort ships. Their strength exceeds the navy and air force of many countries, but this does not include China. You must know that China has more than 1,500 fourth-generation and above fighters in its navy, air force, and the world's second largest navy, as well as a triad ballistic anti-ship missile system that specializes in surface ships and . The power that the United States can use is simply not enough.
And judging from the latest news, it is basically certain that the US military’s will destroy this time. As of the time of publication of this article, the United States currently has only a simplified version of the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier strike group that can reach Taiwan waters in time, including a "Reagan" aircraft carrier, a Burke-class destroyer "USS Higgins" and a A Ticonderoga-class cruiser, the USS Antietam, and a supply ship, the USS Tippecano.To put it bluntly, the combat power of this formation is difficult to defeat the Indian Navy, let alone China.
And the US Navy's "Lincoln" aircraft carrier strike group currently has no sign of heading to the Taiwan Strait , not to mention that it is too late to turn back now. There was basically no movement from the US Seventh Fleet. Only the amphibious assault ship "Tripoli" left the port on its own according to its routine training plan. How will
visit Taiwan?
Therefore, if Pelosi insists on visiting Taiwan this time, she will most likely use a "sneak attack" method. For example, when flying to the next stop and passing through Taiwan waters, he suddenly used the excuse of plane failure and had to make an emergency landing in Taiwan as a "last resort". And in order to mislead China, Pelosi may also play a trick of "escape from the golden cicada". In the video reported by the media, she boarded this special plane, and then quickly changed to another inconspicuous plane after the filming. Then they made an emergency landing in Taiwan on the pretext that the plane had a malfunction, and several other planes continued to fly to the next stop.
And it is not ruled out that Pelosi directly took a civilian flight to sneak into Taiwan. In fact, these two strategies are relatively easy to crack. We only need to inform the airlines in advance and warn them that they must deny Pelosi boarding. If China confirms that a passenger plane is carrying Pelosi and her entourage, it will immediately block the plane. If the aircraft is blocked or even forced to land, the risks and consequences will be borne by the airline itself. Moreover, this method can also better defeat another trick of Pelosi, which is to sneak into Taiwan by taking civilian ships.
In fact, what needs to be guarded most is Pelosi taking a nuclear submarine to sneak into Taiwan from underwater. At present, we are concerned about its visits to Taiwan with aircraft or ships . We can monitor and intercept them very well in both ways, but nuclear submarines are very concealed, especially the United States' nuclear submarines, which are among the best in the world. The mute effect is very good, but my country's anti-submarine capability is relatively weak. If Pelosi adopts this approach, the likelihood of her successfully infiltrating Taiwan is very high.
So do we have a way to crack it? Of course there is. This is the Anti-Secession Law we passed in 2005. As long as the US military warship dares to enter Taiwan, it will automatically trigger the "Anti-Secession Law", and there will be no conditions for negotiation. Therefore, unless the United States is determined to go to war with us, it would not dare to do so. As mentioned above, the current deployment of US military forces does not show the slightest intention to use force with China. Therefore, the possibility of Pelosi sneaking into Taiwan on a nuclear submarine is zero.
It is destined to be a farce
Pelosi is a standard American politician who puts his own interests first. By hyping up the Taiwan issue, Pelosi has released enough smoke bombs and gained enough political capital. Even if she does not visit Taiwan in the future, she will not lose anything. Therefore, as long as we remain determined and do not give in, there is a high probability that Pelosi will use various excuses to cancel her personal visit to Taiwan, and instead send other members of the team or even through video connections to end this farce.
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