On December 13, local time, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the U.S. consumer price index rose 0.1% month-on-month and 7.1% year-on-year in November.

On December 13, local time, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% month-on-month and 7.1% year-on-year in November. This growth rate is the smallest increase during the year. After the

data was released, the US dollar index fell back, and major commodities rose.

US stocks opened higher last night, and then most of the upward trend evaporated. As of this morning's close, the S&P 500 index closed up 29.09 points, or 0.73%, at 4019.65 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 103.60 points, or 0.30%, at 34108.64 points; the Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ) closed up 113.08 points, or 1.01%, at 11256.81 points. Tesla closed down 4%, and its market value once fell below US$500 billion.

WTI January crude oil futures closed up $2.22, or 3.03%, at $75.39 per barrel. NYMEX January natural gas futures closed up 5.28% at $6.9350/million British thermal units. Brent 2 crude oil futures closed up $2.69, or 3.45%, at $80.68 per barrel.

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index fell 1.06% to 104.015 points, with the intraday trading range being 105.095-103.586 points. Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.90% to 1254.82 points, with the intraday trading range being 1267.11-1250.53 points.

Domestic overnight trading generally turned red, with crude oil varieties rising sharply. Low-sulfur fuel oil closed up 3.5%, palm oil closed up 2.2%, and Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver both rose by more than 1%.

CPI Buying of U.S. Treasuries surged in the 60 seconds before the release. The authorities said they did not know the report was leaked.

In the dozens of seconds before the official U.S. CPI was released on Tuesday, purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds surged. In response, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said it had not heard of data being leaked in advance.

In the 60 seconds before the CPI data was released, trading volume in 10-year Treasury futures due in March reached 13,518 contracts, and yields had already fallen before the data was officially released at 8:30 a.m. New York time. Cody Parkinson, a spokesman for the Bureau of Labor Statistics, said by email that while the agency was not aware of any advance releases, some government officials did have access to the data in advance due to federal guidelines.

In late trading on Tuesday, the U.S. 10-year benchmark Treasury yield fell 10.28 basis points to 3.5085%, while the U.S. November CPI data dived to a daily low of 3.4123% when the U.S. November CPI data was released.

The two-year U.S. bond yield fell 14.46 basis points to 4.2329%. After the release of CPI data and before the opening of U.S. stocks, it fell to a daily low of 4.1327%.

Goldman Sachs has sharply lowered its crude oil price expectations for the first half of next year

OPEC The latest monthly report released on Tuesday lowered its crude oil demand expectations for the first quarter of next year. Global crude oil demand is currently expected to be 380,000 barrels per day lower than previously expected in the first quarter. Analysts believe that this provides further reason for the organization to reduce production in the future.

On the same day, Goldman Sachs, the "standard bearer of commodities," significantly lowered its forecast for crude oil prices in the first half of next year. Its forecast for Brent oil in the first and second quarters of next year was lowered from US$110 to US$90 and US$95, and its forecast for U.S. oil in the first and second quarters of next year was lowered from US$105 to US$85 and US$89. The latest data released by

shows that the API crude oil inventory in the United States for the week of December 9 was +7.819 million barrels, which was expected to be -3.913 million barrels, and the previous value was -6.426 million barrels. API Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 64,000 barrels this week, compared with the previous value of +300,000 barrels. API gasoline inventories for the week were +877,000 barrels, compared with +5.93 million barrels in the previous week. API distillate inventories were +3.9 million barrels for the week, compared with +3.55 million barrels in the previous week.

The United States has successfully achieved a "net energy gain" in a nuclear fusion reaction for the first time

On the 13th local time, U.S. Department of Energy officials announced that the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) in California, funded by the U.S. government, has successfully achieved a "net energy gain" in a nuclear fusion reaction for the first time, that is, the energy generated by the fusion reaction is greater than the laser energy that triggered the reaction.

It is reported that the experiment input 2.05 megajoules of energy into the target and produced a fusion energy output of 3.15 megajoules. The energy generated was more than 50% more than the input energy.

U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm called the breakthrough a "milestone achievement" in a statement. This achievement is expected to help mankind take a key step in the process of realizing zero-carbon emission energy.

In addition, the director of California's Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory said that if this achievement is to be commercialized, nuclear fusion technology still has "significant obstacles" to overcome, and it may take decades of effort and investment.

180 Billion "Genius Rich" Arrested

On December 13, local time, Reuters reported that Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of cryptocurrency exchange FTX, was arrested in the Bahamas on Monday after he was criminally charged by U.S. prosecutors.

reports that the Bahamas Attorney General's Office said it moved to arrest Sam Bankman-Freed after receiving formal confirmation of the charges against him. He was expected to be extradited to the United States, it added.

A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney's Office in Manhattan confirmed that Sam Bankman-Fried was arrested in the Bahamas but declined to comment on the charges.

" The New York Times " quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that Fried will face charges of wire fraud, conspiracy to commit wire fraud, securities fraud, conspiracy to commit securities fraud and money laundering.

On December 13, local time, the U.S. government charged Sam Bankman-Fried with a series of financial crimes, saying that he deliberately deceived customers and investors to make huge profits for himself and others, while playing a central role in the company's bankruptcy. The charges listed in the 13-page indictment could put Fried in prison for decades, with a maximum sentence of 115 years, according to U.S. Attorney spokesman Nicholas Biase.

It is worth mentioning that FTX exchange is one of the largest trading platforms in the cryptocurrency field. Its headquarters was once located in Hong Kong, but later moved to the Bahamas. At the beginning of 2022, FTX's valuation was as high as US$32 billion, attracting support from many well-known investment institutions including SoftBank Group and Sequoia Capital .

With the valuation of FTX, the 30-year-old Sam Bankman-Fried once had a net worth of US$26 billion (approximately RMB 181.5 billion) and was called a "currency boss and genius rich man" in the industry.

FTX’s debt may involve more than 1 million creditors, including nearly $3.1 billion owed to the top 50 largest creditors and approximately $1.45 billion to the top 10 creditors.

BlackRock Chief Investment Officer Rieder: It may cause the Federal Reserve to suspend interest rate hikes in the next few months

BlackRock Chief Investment Officer Rick Rieder said that the inflation data released on Tuesday hinted to a certain extent that inflation is decelerating. He added that if similar or subsequent data "suggests a real trend," the Fed may "pause in the coming months" at a "still restrictive policy interest rate level ," but not a level that could unduly stress the economy, especially in industries sensitive to interest rates that have shown the effects of rate hikes.

U.S. November CPI data is released, optimism is rising

With the release of the last "inflation report" of the year in the United States, it also ushered in a critical moment to determine the "fate" of inflation. A report released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the U.S. CPI in November increased by 27.1% year-on-year, slower than expected, and the growth rate was lower than the expected value of 7.3% and the previous value of 7.7%. The core CPI of the United States in November increased by 6% year-on-year, and the growth rate was also lower than the expected value of 6.1% and the previous value of 6.3%. The

agency believes that a key indicator of the U.S. consumer price index recorded its smallest monthly increase in more than a year in November, indicating that the worst period for inflation may be over and strengthening expectations that the pace of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve will slow down.

Previously, most economists expected that the U.S. CPI in November would be 7.3% year-on-year. Although international energy prices have fallen, food and service prices are still at high levels, which will slow down the downward trend of U.S. inflation to a certain extent.

“Both U.S. CPI and core CPI fell short of market expectations in November. Among the main components, energy prices further cooled. Global crude oil prices fell in November. The previous PPI energy component in November was -0.2% month-on-month, indicating that the CPI energy component may also accelerate cooling. Everbright Futures macro analyst Yu Jie said that the inflation data has accelerated its decline, especially the price of second-hand cars has turned negative year-on-year and the month-on-month decline has expanded, while the price of new cars has remained flat month-on-month, indicating that supply chain constraints have been further eased. Prices of services other than rent It fell 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to 7.3%, which was flat month-on-month, and service prices were relatively strong. “The year-on-year and month-on-month increases in rent prices have expanded. The increase in rent prices is due to the rapid increase in housing mortgage interest rates, which has led to a decrease in housing supply, and an increase in demand caused by home buyers turning into renters. "

" Whether it is CPI or core CPI, both year-on-year and month-on-month, both are lower than market expectations. This shows that inflationary pressure in the United States continues to ease, and the Federal Reserve may reach the end of raising interest rates sooner, which will continue to weaken the market's panic about the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. "Zheng Jianxin, a macro analyst at Guomao Futures, said.

After the data was released, market optimism increased, U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds rebounded sharply, and commodities generally rose. The U.S. dollar index fell short in the short term U.S. bond yields fell. The 10-year U.S. bond yield plunged, once falling to 3.419%. The U.S. dollar index fell more than 100 basis points. The three major U.S. stock index futures soared, and Nasdaq futures rose nearly 4%. Metal pulled higher, spot silver rose more than 2%, showing a typical contraction retreat transaction.

The fall in U.S. inflation is a high-probability event

The U.S. CPI fell more than expected, indicating that inflationary pressure has eased. Does it mean that inflation has peaked?

“From the better-than-expected performance of PPI in November, we can see that domestic inflation in the United States is extremely sticky. "In Zheng Jianxin's view, the release of November's inflation data can basically indicate that domestic inflation in the United States has really begun to cool down. In the future, as the lagging effect of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes gradually emerges, coupled with the impact of a high base, it is foreseeable that U.S. inflation will continue to fall.

In fact, the market has expected that inflation will further cool down. Global crude oil prices fell in November, and the PPI energy sub-item in November was -0.2% month-on-month, which means that the CPI energy sub-item announced next week may also accelerate the cooling. . The price of industrial products excluding fuel from the U.S. PPI has a high correlation with the U.S. core CPI. This indicator recorded 4.4% in November, which was significantly lower than the 5.5% in October. The implied inflation expectation of Treasury Inflation Protection Securities (TIPS) fell slightly to 2.26% after the release of PPI data, indicating that the PPI data made the market believe that inflation will further cool down.

It is understood that analysts from Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley have It is predicted that U.S. CPI may drop to normal levels next year, with Morgan Stanley predicting that it will be below 2% by the end of 2023.

Analysts from Wall Street financial institution Morgan Stanley expect that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) will accelerate its decline next year. Analysts from the agency have lowered their expectations for U.S. CPI in 2023. It is expected that by the end of 2023, the year-on-year growth rate of U.S. CPI will be less than 2%, officially falling back. to the Fed’s target.

Morgan Stanley said in the report that global demand may become weaker; the pressure on the supply chain is much less; inventories appear to be getting higher, which prompts more core commodities to be forced to sell at reduced prices; the risk of housing prices is much more balanced than before, and the basic effect will change substantially by then. Morgan Stanley said in a report: "We believe that the Federal Reserve will announce a pause in interest rate increases after raising interest rates to the expected range of 4.625% in the first quarter of next year. "

At almost the same time, another major Wall Street bank, Goldman Sachs, predicted that by the end of 2023, the U.S. CPI will drop significantly to "less than the normal level of 3%." At the same time, Goldman Sachs also predicted that the core PCE, which is currently about 5.1%, will drop sharply to 2.9% by then.

Trading Economics forecast data shows that in the long term, the U.S. inflation rate is expected to remain at 1.90%-2% by the end of 2023, far lower than the current high level.

"With the U.S. output gap falling in the past two months and the cooling of the real estate market, U.S. inflation data are more likely to fall back, but at the same time, because the unemployment rate remains low, the possibility of a recurrence of core inflation still exists. "Jing Chuan, deputy general manager of Wuchuan Zhongda Futures, believes that the gradual decline in U.S. inflation should be a high probability event.

The Federal Reserve’s policy guidance will reach an inflection point

The latest consumer expectations survey released by the New York Fed on Monday showed that Americans expect inflationary pressure to weaken in November, with inflation expectations falling to 5.2% from 5.9% in October. Inflation is expected to see a record month-on-month decline one year later; the inflation expectation level after three years has dropped from 3.1% to 3%, and the inflation level expectation after five years has dropped from 2.4% to 2.3%. The fall in inflation expectations provides the latest evidence for the Federal Reserve to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes.

"Fed spokesperson" Nick Timiraos said that the Federal Reserve has entered the second phase of the anti-inflation war and the pace of interest rate hikes is expected to slow down. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell faces the challenge of setting the next phase of interest rate policy, with two major dilemmas: how high to raise rates from now on, and how long to keep them there.

The Federal Reserve’s December interest rate meeting will be held on December 13-14. The meeting statement will be released at 3 a.m. on December 15, Beijing time. The focus this time is on the tone of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, the terminal interest rate level of the Federal Reserve’s current round of interest rate hikes, and the maintenance time of the terminal interest rate.

According to Shi Jialiang, an analyst at Founder mid-term futures , the U.S. employment data showed obvious signs of slowing down. Inflation fell more than expected in October, and the trend of inflation peaking and falling is more obvious, providing the Federal Reserve with a core basis for slowing down interest rate hikes.

"Expectations of a slowdown in the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes have increased significantly, and policy adjustments will reach the first turning point, that is, the rate of interest rate hikes will first decrease until they stop raising interest rates. The second turning point (interest rate cut) will be realized in the second half of 2023 depending on the degree of U.S. economic recession and the extent of inflation fallback. However, overall attention needs to be paid to changes in expectations. Policy shifts to expectations are the main logic of market operation." Shi Jialiang said.

"Based on the signals released at the interest rate meeting and Fed officials' views on monetary policy , combined with the performance of inflation, employment and other macroeconomic data, it is expected that the Fed will slow down the pace of interest rate hikes in December and increase the rate of interest rate hikes. Shi Jialiang believes that interest rates may be raised 1-2 times again in the first quarter of 2023, depending on inflation and economic performance, and the terminal interest rate may remain at 4.75-5% until the second half of 2023. Interest rates will be cut in the fourth quarter depending on the degree of economic recession and the fall in inflation in the second and third quarters.

In Jingchuan's view, after the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 50 basis points in December, it may maintain the pace of 3 to 4 25 basis point interest rate hikes in 2023. Whether it will stop raising interest rates or enter an interest rate cut cycle at the end of 2023 will require a discretionary decision between economic growth and inflation.

"With the epic pace of interest rate hikes by major central banks in Europe and the United States, policy interest rates in many countries have gradually approached or entered restrictive areas. At the same time, the economic fatigue of various countries is showing, and the overall situation is getting closer to recession. Based on this, there is a high probability that Europe and the United States will end raising interest rates in the first half of 2023." said Dai Chaosheng, a macro foreign exchange analyst at the Financial Derivatives Research Center of the Nanhua Research Institute.

Commodity trends may continue to diverge. Domestic demand drives stronger varieties.

With the release of core US inflation data in November, the market is concerned about how global commodities will behave under the influence of external macroeconomics.

"Generally speaking, an accelerated tightening of monetary policy is good for the U.S. dollar index and U.S. bond yields, but bad for precious metals. When the Fed's monetary policy tightens, risk commodities and safe-haven precious metals are both weak. But when the Fed's monetary policy is priced by the market, precious metals will be the first to show the negative impact of tightening monetary policy." Shi Jialiang said that once the Fed's monetary policy turns, it will have a negative impact on commodities. Although the accelerated tightening of monetary policy will curb inflation from the demand side, it will also have a direct impact on the economy. "Economic recession may be inevitable. Under the expectation of economic recession, risky commodities will still perform weakly."

In fact, commodities have strong cyclical characteristics, and their trends are often highly consistent with the economic cycle. They perform poorly during the economic downturn and perform strongly during the economic upturn.

It is worth noting that once the Federal Reserve starts to slow down or does not raise interest rates, it will have a short-term positive impact on commodities, but the slowdown in interest rate increases does not mean that interest rate increases will stop, and the negative impact on the economy will still exist.

"The risk of the global, especially overseas, economic downturn or even recession in 2023 is still high, and commodity demand will continue to face downward pressure. However, as domestic epidemic prevention policies are further optimized and steady growth policies are stepped up, the domestic economic recovery will indeed It is highly qualitative and may be able to offset the downward pressure on overseas economies to a certain extent. "Zheng Jianxin said that from the supply side, driven by high profits, capital expenditures in the upstream mining industry have grown rapidly in recent years, and production capacity will be gradually released in the next two years, and the constraints faced by the bulk commodity supply side will gradually weaken.

In his opinion, the mid- to long-term trend of commodities is still relatively cautious. Of course, the trends among different varieties will continue to diverge, with commodities mainly driven by domestic demand performing better than those driven by external demand.

In this regard, Jingchuan also believes that products will still show a trend of differentiation in the future. "Due to the continued interest rate hikes in the United States and Europe, future recession and demand decline are inevitable, and globally priced commodities will likely experience recessionary trading." Jingchuan said that commodities represented by crude oil will be under pressure to decline. At the same time, as China enters a phased recovery stage, China's independently priced products, represented by black series, will see a certain rebound.

"The recent decline in commodity basis is obviously the result of the market's expectations for China's economic recovery, which has also led to the rebound of commodities. However, whether the pattern of strong expectations and weak reality will change, you need to continue to observe changes in China's economic data." Jingchuan said that if the Federal Reserve significantly slows down its interest rate hikes or does not raise interest rates, the market will rebound in the short term. However, as the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 50 basis points, once the expectations are realized, the market momentum will weaken.

In Jingchuan's view, the current global economy still shows a mismatch, the driving force of commodity prices is insufficient, and the future differentiation pattern is difficult to change. At the same time, as the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction is continuing after it raises interest rates, the risk of a local financial crisis or even a systemic financial crisis in the next year still exists. "If systemic risks arise, it will be difficult to avoid having an impact on the domestic market. The market must make risk disposal plans to nip problems in the bud." Jingchuan said.

There are divergences in the future direction of the U.S. dollar index.

CPI data showed that the U.S. inflation rate slowed year-on-year in November, and the Federal Reserve may decide to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes at the end of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. The U.S. dollar index still faces further downside risks.

The U.S. Dollar Index is an indicator that comprehensively reflects changes in the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies. Its currency attributes are mainly affected by factors such as differences in fundamentals, interest rate parity, and capital flows.

reporters learned that the Fed is slowing down its interest rate hikes, and there are still some differences in the market as to whether the U.S. dollar index is trending downward or oscillating at a high level.

"We tend to believe that the US dollar will maintain high oscillations, mainly because the domestic fundamentals of the United States still have a certain degree of resilience, while the difficulties faced by the Eurozone are greater than those of the United States. The weaker fundamentals in Europe will bring certain support to the US dollar index." Zheng Jianxin said.

According to Yu Jie, the US dollar index has a certain rebound pressure as the Federal Reserve slows down interest rate hikes. However, judging from fundamental differences, it is still difficult to say that the US dollar index has reached its peak. "In the latest forecast of IMF, the economic growth rate of major overseas economies in 2023 has generally been reduced, with the euro zone and the United Kingdom experiencing the most obvious economic declines, mainly due to the strongest recession expectations due to soaring energy prices and geopolitical conflicts. Moreover, the euro is the currency with the largest weight in the U.S. dollar index. Against the background of increasing downward pressure on the European economy, the depreciation of the euro will also boost the strength of the U.S. dollar index." Yu Jie said.

This article comes from Futures Daily