The price adjustment window for the new round of domestic refined oil is 24:00 on December 19, which is tomorrow night. This will also be the last price adjustment of refined oil in 2022. In addition, as time goes by, there is only one working day left before the price adjustment window opens, which indicates that my country's gasoline and diesel prices will usher in new changes. The corresponding prices of No. 92 gasoline, No. 0 diesel and No. 95 gasoline will be redefined. At that time, car owners' refueling costs will also fluctuate. After the last round of price adjustment, the overall situation of "13 rises, 9 falls, 1 stranded" has been broken, and the retail price limit for refined oil in various parts of the country has undergone subtle changes.
Of course, according to the crude oil change rate of -6.85% on the ninth working day of this round of pricing cycle, it can be seen that the expected decline in oil prices is completely in the range of sharp drops, which is a big step beyond the red line of price adjustment. The specific decline is about 460 yuan/ton, which is slightly narrower than the 8th working day. However, the overall change is not large. Therefore, oil prices are still in a big drop. As the price adjustment starts closer and closer, there is no suspense in this round of oil prices to adjust and fall sharply, and the rest is only a matter of time. Obviously, judging from the latest expected decline in refined oil, domestic oil prices will fall again tomorrow night, achieving the tenth lower since this year, corresponding to the decline in gasoline and diesel prices.
is converted into a liter price. It is initially expected that the price reduction of gasoline and diesel is 0.36 yuan/liter-0.43 yuan/liter. The overall situation is still within the range of a sharp drop, laying the foundation for this round of sharp drop in refined oil prices. Since this is only the reference data for the ninth working day, the relevant values of the price adjustment on the last working day have not been announced yet. Therefore, the cumulative decline in the current oil price forecast is for reference only. However, it is worth mentioning that the new round of price adjustment has become a foregone conclusion. By then, the "10th drop" of the year will be achieved. The market gasoline and diesel retail price limit has dropped significantly, and the gasoline and diesel prices at gasoline and diesel stations across the country have shown a significant decline.
is estimated based on the national average price. It is estimated that the price of No. 92 gasoline is reduced by 0.37 yuan/liter, the price of No. 95 gasoline is reduced by 0.38 yuan/liter, and the price of No. 0 diesel is reduced by 0.38 yuan/liter. This means that my country's refined oil prices will fall tomorrow night. Car owners can save 18.5 yuan by filling a box of 50 liters of No. 92 gasoline. Therefore, it is more cost-effective for consumers to refuel after the price adjustment is over, which can spend a little less and can appropriately reduce the pressure of car maintenance.
In the overseas market, as the market's current concerns about the risk of the global economic recession increased, the Keystone pipeline of the US-Canada oil transmission "major artery" has gradually recovered, putting pressure on international crude oil prices. The prices of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil have been lowered to a lower price this year, so the crude oil change rate will continue to operate within the negative range, and this round of retail price limit for refined oil is likely to be lowered.
Specifically, as the signs of cooling down in the U.S. economy activity becomes more and more obvious, worse than expected economic data aggravates investors' concerns about the risk of the U.S. recession, and signs of Fed officials send out a "hawkish" signal, so international oil prices have shown a significant decline. As of the close of the trading day (16th), the price of light crude oil futures delivered on the New York Mercantile Exchange in January 2023 fell by $1.82 to close at $74.29 per barrel, a drop of 2.39%. The price of Brent crude oil futures in London, UK, fell $2.17 to close at $79.04 per barrel, a drop of 2.67%.
Furthermore, investors weigh the possible impact of the subsequent measures of the Federal Reserve and ECB interest rate hikes on the market at the macro level. Under the expectations of economic recession and turning point, concerns about recession risk ultimately gained the upper hand.
To sum up, according to the opening time of the new round of price adjustment window, it can be seen that domestic oil prices will fall again tomorrow night. As the market's concerns about the risk of global economic recession increase, the oil price forecast for the ninth working day of the pricing cycle is 460 yuan/ton, and the price of No. 92 gasoline is expected to be lowered by 0.37 yuan/liter, and No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel will also be significantly lowered. At that time, consumers' oil costs will further drop, completing the tenth decline this year.
