This article was first published "Jingsi has me". The author Jingsi authorized to push
to fight the epidemic. Let's talk about something else today. What do you say about
? I want to say TSMC, yes, it is the TSMC in Taiwan that specializes in producing chips. In fact, production is not very accurate, it should be called processing. In fact, the processing is not very accurate, it should be called OEM. What is OEM? It is when others draw the drawings, and it is just produced, just like we are familiar with a very well-known clothing brand. Although it is a clothing brand, it does not produce clothes. It only designs clothes and asks others to make them for him. Then he finds someone to sell them (it is not sold by himself, but is sold by the franchise stores he cooperates with). He does design and brand operation by himself.
Therefore, OEM is actually making wedding clothes for others, just like those processing factories that produce clothes for a certain clothing brand. The clothes made are pasted by other people's brands, and it seems that they have nothing to do with the processing factory.
But TSMC, the foundry, is said to be a wedding dress for others, but it is so awesome. How awesome is it?
TSMC, a company, has a market share of in the wafer foundry field around the world, with being more than 50%.
I secretly changed the argument here and replaced the habitual chip foundry with wafer foundry. The statement of wafer foundry is more accurate. We are used to saying that chips are only as big as fingernails. In fact, chips as big as fingernails are considered large, but we are used to saying that. The so-called OEM means that it is necessary to carve a very complex circuit diagram designed by others in advance on such a large place. But when carving, it is not a chip that takes a moment, but a large piece of thin, round stone, such as a piece of stone that can be carved hundreds of them. After the carving, we cut it into one by one, which is used to refer to as a chip the size of a fingernail.
The thin, round stone slice is called wafer . You heard it right, it is a stone slice. The main component is silicon. Silicon is actually the main component of sand, but after rearrangement and combination, the purpose is very different.
In short, TSMC's chip industry chain, in terms of foundry, a key link in the chip industry chain, his company accounts for more than 50% of the world's share.
However, this is not the best. To put it more in detail, in the highest-end field of wafer foundry, his company accounts for 90% of the world's share. This area is mainly concentrated on chips below 7 nanometers.
can be said without hesitation that TSMC is many times better than Huawei .
So, where is TSMC? It's from Taiwan. Taiwan belongs to China, so logically, TSMC is a Chinese company.
However, since we have not implemented actual management of Taiwan at present, this company has now gone to the United States under the pressure of the United States.
On December 7, TSMC held the relocation ceremony of its first new factory in the United States in Arizona, USA. The so-called migration machine means that the equipment is moved here, and installation and testing will be started soon. Previously, they had shipped special planes to transport the equipment from November, and also transported relevant senior engineers and their families. Anyway, it's a big move. Moving something like
is definitely a good thing for the United States, so Americans attach great importance to the so-called migration ceremony. The president of the United States named Biden went, Raymondo, Minister of Commerce, and some well-known American companies, , Apple , ADM, and Nvidia, all went. On the TSMC side, founder Zhang Zhongmou , chairman Liu Deyin , and president Wei Zhejia all attended in person.
In short, the situation is very big.
What is bigger than the situation is the plan announced by TSMC, which is to increase the original US$12 billion investment in the United States to US$40 billion. What’s more important is that very, very advanced chips are to be produced there. A 4-nanometer chip will be put into production in 2024 and a 3-nanometer chip will be put into production in 2026. The chips such as are currently not capable of producing.
In a word, good thing, I went to the United States.
Why did TSMC go to the United States? Is it because it makes more money in the United States? no. In April this year, TSMC founder Zhang Zhongmou publicly stated that producing chip in the United States is an expensive and wasteful and futile move, because it lacks talent and is prohibitively expensive.
Even at this relocation ceremony, Zhang Zhongmou's speech was full of dissatisfaction. He had this sentence, which said: " Globalization is almost dead, free trade is almost dead. ." And he clearly stated that geopolitics has completely changed the situation faced by semiconductor manufacturers.
After all, he doesn't want to go.
But he had to go.
Why? We don’t know much about the things behind
, but we don’t need to know those things to figure out the reason. If you don’t go, then let’s see how Meng Wanzhou’s was arrested in Chinese .
pair, if you don’t go, the executive may be arrested one day. So TSMC has to go.
TSMC is not only going to the United States, but also to Japan, just a few days after he completed the relocation ceremony of his new factory in Arizona, USA. Tokyo TV, Japan disclosed that TSMC did not rule out the possibility of building a second factory in Japan. TSMC responded: "It is not ruled out, but there is no specific plan at present." In response, the meaning of what the Minister of Industry Yasutoshi Yasutoshi said on December 9 can be simply translated into: Welcome, welcome, warm welcome.
TSMC will build a factory in Japan, which is likely to be affected by the United States. We can imagine such a scenario where the United States wished that TSMC would move all to the United States, but it would not make money when TSMC moved to the United States. TSMC's founder Chang Zhongmou said it very clearly. So, the United States insists on letting him move, what should he do? He can only play Tai Chi . On the one hand, he moved a little to the United States, and on the other hand, he discussed with him that Japan is an ally with you, and everyone is yours wherever he moves. So can I move a little to the United States? Is it OK? The end may be a compromise.
In addition, the United States also knew that his family could not handle the chip , so they set up a chip four-party alliance, and Japan is one of the four parties.
Of course, the most fundamental reason behind this is that the DPP authorities in Taiwan not only do not have the ability to stop this problem, but also want to use this matter as a letter of fame in exchange for the United States' support for his separatist plot.
After all, the Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party authorities want to use such a treason to pave the way for their own separatist plot.
So, can this really fulfill the DPP’s wishes? Or, does this matter really have a negative impact on China's great cause of unification? The topic of
needs to start with the Chinese people's policies towards mainland China and Taiwan. This policy is simply summarized by the people as benefiting Taiwan and poor Taiwan. Benefiting Taiwan, preferential benefits, that is, good for Taiwan and promote its economic development. To be poor in Taiwan means not supporting his economic development and weakening his strength. For example, in the past two years, we have successively found that many agricultural products it transports to the mainland have many problems, so we will not buy many of their products. To put it into detail, I summarized it into: It is easy to benefit Taiwan, but it is difficult to poor Taiwan.
You heard it right, it is easy to benefit Taiwan and it is difficult to lose Taiwan.This sounds a bit disgusting, but I do understand it so.
is easy to benefit Taiwan, which is easier to understand, because China is now the second largest economy in the world and has a particularly strong purchasing power. Whether it is the final consumer goods or the intermediate products, it requires a lot of things. Buying more things from Taiwan will help Taiwan a lot. After all, Taiwan is a small place, and there are only so many things produced in total.
In fact, we are really trying very hard to benefit Taiwan now. In 2021, mainland China imported 1.6 trillion yuan from Taiwan and exported 0.5 trillion yuan to Taiwan. The trade deficit of mainland China is 41.1 trillion yuan, equivalent to US$170 billion.
We all know that when mainland China is doing business with the whole world, it is generally crazy to make a surplus. The United States is fighting a trade war with us because of the Chinese surplus, but we have a huge deficit in front of Taiwan, which will reach US$170 billion in 2021.
China's trade surplus with the United States in 2021 is US$390 billion, which is more than twice the trade deficit of mainland China with Taiwan in 2021.
What size is the United States? It is the world's largest power, and as a result, we made a surplus of US$390 billion. However, the trade deficit of mainland China with Taiwan in 2021 is actually nearly half of China's trade surplus with the United States in 2021.
So, this amount is very large.
The mainland's deficit with Taiwan, that is, Taiwan's surplus with the mainland, that is, Taiwan has made a lot of money. When calculating GDP, the contribution of trade to GDP is not used to calculate the total trade volume, but to use surplus or deficit. In short, the difference is used to calculate the contribution to GDP.
This shows that we are indeed very strong in benefiting Taiwan.
Now the Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party authorities do not recognize 1992 Consensus . They are getting further and further on the road of division. Many people naturally think that they need to repair it. Repairing him financially is a poor Taiwan. The specific way is to buy less of his things, and the specific reflection is to narrow the trade deficit. Is this solution of
?
I think it's okay to have a small fight, but it's not good to have big muscles.
The so-called small-scale fight means buying less agricultural products from him. For example, in 2020, the amount of agricultural products we imported from Taiwan was US$1 billion, a decrease of US$200 million from 2019.
But big moves cannot work, why?
Because chips account for a large part of the goods we import from Taiwan.
In 2021, the total amount of chips imported from Taiwan (broadly defined chips, including various semiconductor products) from the mainland is 1 trillion yuan, equivalent to US$160 billion.
This amount is roughly equivalent to the trade deficit of mainland China with Taiwan in 2021, because one is US$160 billion and the other is US$170 billion.
In 2021, we imported a total of US$250 billion from Taiwan, of which the chips are US$160 billion.
Why do you import so many chips from Taiwan? Because it can only be imported from it. As mentioned earlier, TSMC accounts for more than 50% of the world's share in the wafer foundry field. In the field of high-end chips, its company accounts for more than 90% of the market share in the world. There are several companies in Taiwan that do wafer foundry, which are not as powerful as TSMC, but they are also among the top 10 in the world. For example, Taiwan’s UMC is generally ranked third in the world, Taiwan’s LIJIC is generally ranked seventh in the world, and Taiwan’s world-leading is generally ranked eighth in the world.
Therefore, it is difficult to implement Taiwan in the economic field, because Taiwan is too powerful in the chip field, and this happens to be our shortcomings.
Therefore, if we want to implement the Poverty Taiwan Plan, we must do our own business and develop our own chip industry.
So in my previous articles, I often say that whether it is the struggle against the United States, the struggle against Taiwan independence elements, or the struggle against any monsters and monsters in the world, the most important thing is to do our own things well.
On the other hand, as long as we do our own things well, for example, after developing our entire chip industry, under the ideal state, we will not import chips and related products from Taiwan at all, then Taiwan's economy will collapse immediately.
speaks with the numbers from 2020. In 2020, Taiwan's foreign trade overall achieved a surplus of US$58.8 billion. In 2020, the amount of products imported from Taiwan only (chips in a narrow sense, excluding other semiconductor industries) reached US$73.5 billion.
In other words, if the mainland does not buy Taiwan’s chips, its annual surplus of 58.8 billion will immediately become a deficit of US$14.8 billion. His economy collapsed soon.
Once the economy collapses, the people will naturally complain, and the ruling foundation of the Democratic Progressive Party, which advocates Taiwan independence, will collapse.
Then maybe a party that advocates unity will come to power, and at least it will let the so-called "ununified, not alone, not martial" party like the Kuomintang govern. That is a little bit better than the DPP's rule.
So we found that when we think about the great cause of unification, we often fall on the "Woodwood". This is the final guarantee, and it is naturally right. But if we think deeply, we will find that as long as we do our own things well, unity may come naturally. Therefore, we must develop ourselves well as a strong backing for the reunification of our motherland.
However, it is easier said than done, but more importantly, it is not a day's cold, and it can't be done in three or two mornings.
How can we lose Taiwan and shake the public opinion foundation of Taiwan independence elements before we develop ourselves well?
To be honest, I really can't think of any good solution, such as how effective is it to import less Taiwanese agricultural products? Taking 2020 as an example, we imported less than 200 million US dollars of agricultural products in Taiwan compared with 2019. What is $200 million? It only accounts for about 1/300 of his surplus achieved in 2020. This only hurts the hair, not the muscles and bones.
so I really can't think of a good way.
But now there is a way, what is it?
Back to today's article, Americans forced Taiwan to transfer TSMC to the United States and Japan. Although
is just the beginning, the next trend may be inevitable. So we can think about it. When Americans force Taiwan to transfer TSMC to the United States and Japan, Taiwan's own semiconductor industry will collapse.
At that time, even if China wanted to buy chips in Taiwan, it was gone because it moved away and moved!
Then won’t Taiwan’s economy collapse?
Taiwan's economy collapsed, and he must have demands on mainland China, hoping that mainland China will import more other things from him. At that time, it may be possible to see 200 million US dollars of agricultural products. 200 million US dollars of agricultural products may be able to hit the arrogance of Taiwan independence elements.
is not like now, we buy less than $200 million in agricultural products. It looks very wronged on the surface, but in fact it doesn't take this matter as much as it is.
More importantly, his economy collapsed, where did he get the money to buy high-priced arms in the United States?
Also, the economy collapses and living standards decline, and its split back and confidence are weaker, whether it is a politician or an ordinary citizen.
At that time, an important driving force for the unification of East Germany and West Germany was that East Germany's economy was significantly behind West Germany, and the wealthy West Germany did not despise this poor brother and had to take the initiative to demand unity. So the two families hit it off and merged peacefully, and unified.
Therefore, the United States forces Taiwan to move to the United States and Japan is really promoting China's unification cause . And this promotion is not yet possible in mainland China.
Americans forced TSMC to move to the United States, which has another benefit to China's great cause of unification.
This still needs to start from the foundry process of TSMC, a company in the key link of the chip industry chain, with exclusively accounting for more than 50% of the market share, among which, in the high-end chip field, the market share even reaches 90%.
What does this mean? This means that one day if we launch a war of martial arts unification, if TSMC is accidentally blown up, or the Taiwanese independence elements are crazy, they will blow up him or not, but will affect the supply of chips during the war, which will have a serious negative impact on the economic development of countries around the world.
You think about it, half of the world and part of it, 90% of the world, are supplied by TSMC, but after the war, it cannot supply it normally, and the whole world will suffer together.
What will happen to the whole world? The whole world must oppose this battle. If we insist on fighting, then the minds of people all over the world may be thinking about fighting against us.
This is also a big concern for us to not easily launch a war of unification. If we think of the United States holding the hegemony of world public opinion, under such a background, the world economy will be greatly affected, and they will most likely put this blame on us. Of course we are not afraid that he will blame us, but he will cause real harm to us, and that should also be calculated for the cost of our unification.
So, now the United States is constantly hollowing out Taiwan's pillar industry. When the day it is really hollowed out, whether we fight this war or not will have little impact on the world economy . Then the attitudes of countries around the world towards this matter may not matter, and it will become, that is your internal affairs, I will not interfere, what do you do if you like.
Based on this logic, Taiwanese people have always called TSMC the sacred mountain of protection. Now, Americans are demolishing this mountain so that it cannot protect its platform.
So, from the objective consequences, The United States’ forced TSMC to move is indeed a support for China’s great cause of unification .
Some people may wonder, isn’t the United States supporting Taiwanese independence elements to engage in secession? Why did he still poach Taiwan’s corners like this?
This just confirms the point I have said over and over again over the years. Do you think the United States really cares about whether Taiwan is unified or independent? He doesn't care about that matter. What he cares about is whether he can use Taiwan as a chess piece to curb China's development and promote its own development. I have made such an extreme example in my past articles. I said that even if Taiwan Island sinks, as long as it is conducive to curbing China and the United States, he will not blink.
So, what the United States cares about is how to curb China and how to develop itself. Taiwan's TSMC's advanced technology in the chip field has made the United States very anxious. When China was not unified, this place was too far away from the United States and very close to China, and he felt that he could not control it. Once China is unified, TSMC will be controlled by China locally. There is no doubt that this will be beneficial to China and not to the United States, so he will try to get TSMC to move to him.
As for whether the Taiwanese independence elements will die or live, whether the separatist plot of Taiwan independence elements can be realized, and even whether China can be unified, from the current American style, you will know whether he cares or not.
I used to say this point of view, and some friends always expressed doubts, thinking that I was just talking bad things about the United States and trying to make the United States look like the dark. Then, the fact that TSMC is forced by Americans to start moving to the United States should be explained.
Americans do not care about Taiwan’s life or death, nor do they care about Taiwan’s unification or division. They only care about whether it can curb China and whether it is conducive to the development of the United States. This is an important logical point in our analysis of the struggle in the Taiwan Strait.
My previous articles have analyzed many strategies about the struggle of the Taiwan Strait from this logical point. For example, when we are strong to a certain extent and the United States supports Taiwan independence, it will lose more, and then it will use Taiwan as a bargaining chip to negotiate with China. At that time, as long as China gives him a little benefit, it will immediately give up this piece.
Therefore, the best strategy for the great cause of national reunification is to develop ourselves well, and then at the negotiating table, together with the Americans, use a scale to weigh the Taiwan independence elements, and then the United States will quote a price and strive to buy a good price. Of course, we will also pay a price and finally make a transaction.
This is the biggest inspiration that the United States has provided to us by forcing TSMC to move to the United States. That's what I want to say the most today.
I also want to say, if TSMC is in mainland China, do you see if the United States dares to do this? If excellent enterprises remain unmoved, economic development is guaranteed, and people's lives are guaranteed. Taiwan’s Long Yingtai once said, “I don’t care about the rise of a great country, I only care about the dignity of the common people.” From TSMC's tragic situation, we can see that without the rise of a great power, where can the dignity of the common people come from?
Finally, let me talk about a question that many friends are concerned about, that is, TSMC has moved out, and even if we are unified in the future, we will not get TSMC. How can we settle this account?
My point is that, with the virtues of the Americans and the crazyness of Taiwan independence elements, after we unify Taiwan, it will be difficult for us to get a complete TSMC no matter what trick the United States uses, and it will move it away.
Then someone might say, can we start the unification war now and take it down before he moves away?
I want to say that even if the war of unification is launched now, even if we can end the war with lightning speed, for a United States who does not want China to develop in any case, for a group of crazy separatists, who prevent the attack from the People's Liberation Army, can't they destroy TSMC by themselves? Or, he finally withdrew all his personnel and weapons to TSMC and insisted on it. Should we fight or not? When fighting, can you only fight bad people and not TSMC?
So, TSMC, such a good thing exists on the earth. In the context of the rampant robbers in the United States, no matter what, it cannot escape the tragic ending.
