Today is an important day, and Hong Kong stock was closed for one day, and northbound funds suspended trading for two consecutive days, which made the big A-share a little frightened. fluctuates at a high level for a day, but in the end there is no red market.
However, the index did not fall much, so it was considered a benign adjustment. stock 1,900 companies rose, nearly 2,700 companies fell, 79 companies 1 hit the daily limit 30 companies hit the daily limit , and makes money-making effect is relatively weak. The market rotation is accelerating. The tourist hotels that rose to the daily limit yesterday have fallen to the daily limit today! Yesterday, Dabaimala liquor and medicine, and today it is Dabaimala’s turn to Dabai’s infrastructure and electricity.
, and track stocks, automobiles and photovoltaics and rebounded, and no one participated. The high-level monster stocks and lost money and continued to hit the limit. The more exciting the previous ones were, the more miserable it was now! So don’t envy others for eating meat, there are many beats you should be!
Yesterday’s small survey on profit situation found that in the past two months of rebound, 35% of people actually lost money, and 18% of investors lost more than 20%. It is understandable that they missed the opportunity. I don’t know what stocks I bought when I lost 20%.
If you don’t make money in the upward stage, you have to be more careful in the downward stage . Big A has been rebounding for two months, and it is difficult to continue to rise in the short term. At this time, controlling the drawdown and saving profits is the main consideration. It is estimated that everyone can also feel from the operation in the past few days that it is easy to lose money and it is difficult to make money. Now it has passed the stage of buying and winning.
01
TSMC was cut by three major customers? Company response: No comment on market speculation or rumors
According to reports, TSMC has rarely seen three major customers adjust orders. At present, mass production of Apple's iPhone 14 series has been launched, but the target of shipment of the first batch of 90 million units has been reduced by 10%. In addition, Ultramicro Semiconductor (AMD) and Nvidia have shown to TSMC that it has to adjust its order plan due to the sharp decline in demand in the PC market and the decline of the "mining" boom. Among them, AMD has reduced a total of about 20,000 7/6 nanometer orders from the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of 2023. Nvidia requires delays and reductions in the first quarter orders. In response to this report, relevant departments of TSMC responded to Southern Finance All Media Group reporters saying that they do not comment on market speculation or rumors.
semiconductor industry is likely to enter a downward cycle, for three reasons: 1. High inflation in Europe and the United States, the economy is at risk of recession, and consumption shrinks; 2. There is no major innovation in the mobile phone itself, and people's replacement cycle has been extended from 18 months to 30 months; 3. The price of virtual currency plummeted, digging pits will no longer make money, and no one wants for mining machines.
semiconductor chip demand decreased. In the past two years, due to the US blockade, in addition to China's significant expansion of production, Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea, including Taiwan, also expanded production frantically. The final result must be overcapacity and a sharp drop in prices. But in terms of price wars, we in China have never been afraid of anyone. As long as the industry is entered by Chinese people, no matter how high-end products are, they can be priced at a bargain. This is the great contribution of us Chinese to the world. It is precisely because of the Chinese that the whole world can enjoy relatively cheap goods.
semiconductor industry may, like the panel industry in the future, not be able to escape the cycle of cycles. I hope that Chinese chip companies can make steady progress, learn BOE and TCL, defeat European and American competitors in a fierce price war, first win the low-end process market above 28nm, wait for the domestic lithography machine technology breakthrough, and then advance to high-end process.
TSMC stock price hit a low today, and the stock prices of many semiconductor companies, including Intel , also continued to fall. It will have some impact on A-shares, but our country's semiconductor companies still have the logic of domestic substitution. The 2025 plan is to 75% of semiconductor chips self-sufficiency, and it is still far from this goal. In addition, the rising demand for semiconductor chips in new energy vehicles and photovoltaic industries will make up for the losses of some mobile phones. Blade has always emphasized that the automotive chip sector must pay attention to it, and there is still a broad market space in the future .
02
Photoscopic module factory has been suspended on a large scale? People familiar with the matter: It did not appear, but the operating rate in July may be further reduced.
There was a news on the Internet today that photovoltaic module factories have suspended production on a large scale. During the reporter's verification, most leading companies denied the relevant rumors. Some market insiders reported that component factories are still mainly implementing previous orders, and production in will be adjusted in July, and there is a possibility of further reduction in the operating rate.
yesterday href hr2 just increased its price, and today there was a negative news. I wonder who this person in the matter is, do you dare to disclose his name? However, photovoltaic rebounds have already been a lot, and short-term adjustments are normal. As for the start of construction in July, we will continue to track it. In the short term, for stock , which has an excessive increase in , you can also make an short-term take profit, and it is your own to take the profits into your hands!
03
National Energy Administration Draft for soliciting opinions: Medium and large electrochemical energy storage power stations shall not use ternary lithium batteries and sodium sulfur batteries
The National Energy Administration recently released the "Twenty-five key requirements for preventing power production accidents (2022 edition) (Draft for soliciting opinions)" proposed that medium and large electrochemical energy storage power stations shall not use ternary lithium batteries and sodium sulfur batteries, and it is not advisable to use cascade utilization power battery ; when selecting cascade utilization power batteries, consistency screening should be carried out and safety assessment should be carried out in combination with traceability data.
If this draft of opinion is passed, it will be a direct negative for the ternary battery, which is good for the lithium iron phosphate battery, as well as the future sodium battery battery. Compared with lithium iron phosphate battery, ternary battery has a higher unit energy density, but is less safe. Last year, there was a fire in an energy storage station in Tesla in Australia, and there was an energy storage power station in Beijing before.
Whether in terms of cost-effectiveness or safety, lithium iron phosphate is more suitable for energy storage power stations than ternary batteries. If this draft of opinion is approved, it will have a huge impact on some companies that mainly do ternary battery energy storage business. CATL focuses on the ternary battery, and BYD is mainly lithium iron phosphate. Do you still remember the logic that brokerages praised Ningde last year? A large part of it is based on the energy storage market, and this logic may not work now.
Regarding the future market , the index has been high at and stagnation for five or six days. If it cannot go up, it will go down. It is also one of the characteristics of A-shares that will fall for a long time. CATL has taken the lead in making adjustments. If the energy storage cannot be used in ternary batteries in the future, it will be a big blow to CATL. CATL will adjust and , GEM, will also be brought down.
U.S. stocks continued to fall today, and the US stock market fell 30% in the past six months, underperforming the world. This may be the result that the US government wants. Because only when the stock market is no longer profitable, those who trade stocks want to return to their jobs and work honestly. The high inflation in the United States is, on the one hand, because the Federal Reserve's , the Federal Reserve has greatly exerted money in the past two years. On the other hand, there are fewer people who have paid money to work, logistics is not smooth, goods piled up in ports, and things cannot be shipped even if they have money, so prices naturally rise.
major A-shares are typical policy markets. When the country needs to rise, various positive factors will be issued. If the rise is too fast and too high, it will start to take the initiative to cool down. At this stage, it is still a stage where the policy side is loose. There are several negative factors today, which are not a policy side suppression. Short-term speculation is overheated. technical side needs to be adjusted and adjusted. If the adjustment is in place, it will continue to rise!
