Author: Shijiangyue
As the world economy falls into recession, the United States and European countries are also facing severe inflation and soaring prices. Therefore, the several summits that the international community just ended mentioned that Ukraine and Russia should negotiate peacefully to achieve a ceasefire, bringing the Russian-Ukraine conflict to an end.
According to AFP , not only did Roman Catholic Pope Francis say he wanted to mediate the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, but the United States is also urging Ukraine to negotiate with Russia from time to time.
Of course, the promotional statements including US President Biden and French President Macron all emphasize that only Ukraine itself can decide the negotiation time and conditions, and neither party has clearly proposed the time limit for negotiation.
01 The West is trying to promote Ukraine-Russia negotiations? Kiev directly rejects
Let’s look at the Ukrainian side first. Kiev's current attitude is very clear, which is to require Russia to withdraw its troops in a full range and stop fighting to discuss negotiations. Ukrainian President Zelensky said otherwise, today's negotiations meant that Ukraine surrendered to Russia.
A key adviser at the Ukrainian presidential palace Mikhailo Podolak told AFP that after Kiev achieved a series of major military victories, Western countries are currently trying to push Ukraine to negotiate with Moscow , which is "strange" and equivalent to demanding surrender.
Podoliak said, "When you have the initiative on the battlefield, it is unexpected to receive such suggestions: they are like saying that you cannot accomplish everything through military means in any case, so it's better to negotiate."
American media also recently revealed that some senior officials have begun to encourage Ukraine to consider talks, but Zelensky has refused to hold talks so far unless Russia can meet the conditions proposed by Ukraine. The U.S. advised to reconcile include General Mark Millie, the highest general of the US military and chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Not long ago, Mark Miley said that in the true sense, military victory may not be achieved through military means. He believes that there is a window of opportunity for negotiation in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. In fact, Mark Mili's words are very clear. Judging from the current conflict situation, it is obvious that Ukraine wants to regain all places controlled by the Russian army, which is obviously impossible to achieve in a short period of time.
On the one hand, Russia is a major military power. Although conventional military forces have declined, the lean camel is bigger than a horse. If Russia's military manufacturing industry starts to operate, the production of conventional weapons ammunition and missiles will gradually increase. Then, the longer the conflict will delay, the more unfavorable it will be for Ukraine.
On the other hand, Ukraine can now win the counterattack of Khlsong . One of the important factors is that some countries such as the United States and Europe have provided Ukraine with a large number of relatively modern conventional weapons, which are supported by the United States and the West. However, the United States and Western countries cannot support Ukrainian weapons and funds indefinitely, and there is always a time when their own arsenals are about to bottom out.
Therefore, once the conflict continues and there is no possibility of a ceasefire, opposition within the United States and Western countries will rise rapidly.
In this way, Ukraine may face tremendous pressures both internal and external, and will be very passive in the future. At present, the Russian military is constantly cracking down on the infrastructure of energy, power supply and drinking water in Ukraine, paralyzing the public infrastructure in many Ukrainian cities, and the Zelensky government needs a lot of funds to rebuild.
02 The United States "changed its face" again, saying that Ukraine is important to the West
For the negotiations, Ukraine revealed that Moscow did not make "any direct suggestions" to Kiev on these talks, but instead tended to convey it through intermediaries and even mentioned the possibility of a ceasefire. This idea is meaningless to Kiev, who thinks it is a delaying strategy taken by the Kremlin to get a breather and prepare for a new offensive.
So, it can be seen that Russia and Ukraine have no trust at present, so it is difficult to reach the basis for negotiations on a problem.Ukraine believes that Russia does not really want negotiations, but is conducting a war preparation activity called "negotiation". The Ukrainian military said that during this period, the Russian army is renovating and training soldiers to find more weapons, and strengthening the Russian army's positions on the east bank of the Dnieper River .
Kiev believes that what needs to be done most at the moment is to be inspired by the momentum of victory. Although the arrival of cold winter and heavy snow worsened the local situation, the Ukrainian army's counterattack cannot stop. Since Khlsson's river crossing is very difficult now, the main attack direction of the Ukrainian army will turn to Zaporoze (south) and Luhansk (east) regions
. It is obvious that the United States is a veteran in betting and playing double-standard methods on both sides. Therefore, after Ukraine strongly stated that it is impossible to negotiate with Russia at this stage, the US military changed its attitude and emphasized the importance of helping Ukraine. Because they need Ukraine as the adhesive to gather the "Atlantic Alliance" and deal with Russia together.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Austin's latest statement is that Ukraine is very important to the United States and the West. There are four main reasons. First, Russia's choice of conflict is a direct threat to Europe. Secondly, Russia is a challenge to NATO allies. Third, Russia's behavior is an attack on common Western values and the rule of law. Finally, Russia undermined the rules-based international order .
So, based on these four reasons, the West’s support for Ukraine is also an investment in its own security and prosperity. Look, how quickly Americans change their faces.
03 Ukrainian lion opened his mouth and asked for a large number of heavy weapons
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg 21 also asked NATO member states to strengthen military support for Ukraine to ensure that the country is ultimately "an autonomous, independent and democratic European country."
Stortenberg said at the NATO meeting held on Madrid that day: "We need to realize that this war is very likely to end at the negotiating table at some point, and we also know that the outcome of the negotiation depends entirely on the military strength on the battlefield."
This actually echoes the US statement and seems to take care of Ukraine's feelings.
Stoltenberg said NATO must invest more money in defending Ukraine. "We must remember that the price we pay is calculated in money, and the price Ukraine pays every day is calculated in life and flesh, and supporting them is our obligation."
Stortenberg said that by the end of this year, NATO's additional defense expenditure since 2014 will exceed $350 billion. He said NATO must strengthen its military infrastructure in Europe and finally complete the procedures for joining NATO by Finnish and Swedish .
He also praised Ukraine for its military victory in the face of Moscow, but also warned that it would be wrong to underestimate the military capabilities of the Russian Federation.
He said: "It still has strong military capabilities and a large number of troops. Russia is willing to accept large-scale casualties and wants to cause serious harm to Ukraine. We have seen drone and missiles attack Ukrainian cities, civilians and critical infrastructure."
Zelensky delivered a speech to the conference via video, stressing the importance of NATO to Ukraine's military and economic aid and calling on allies to welcome Ukraine to join EU and NATO.
At the same time, as the severe winter hit Ukraine, Russia has been attacking Ukraine's power grid and other critical infrastructure from the air, causing millions of Ukrainians to suffer large-scale power outages. In Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, residents face severe cold but no heating or water supply.
The evacuation operation began more than a week after Ukraine recaptured the city of Khlsong and its surrounding areas. The liberation of the region marked a major battlefield victory, while evacuation highlighted the difficulties the country faced after Russia launched a violent shelling of its power infrastructure.
At present, Ukraine hopes that the West can provide more weapons in winter.Kiev has already made a list: the West needs to provide 150 to 200 tanks, about 300 armored vehicles, about 100 artillery systems, 50 to 70 multi-barrel rocket launcher systems, including the American "Haimas" system with extremely deterrent combat effectiveness.
In addition, Ukraine also hopes to obtain 10 to 15 sets of air defense missile systems. It is worth noting that Ukraine has proposed that the United States hopes that the United States will provide army tactical missiles with a range of 300 kilometers, and Ukraine's current weapon range is only more than 80 kilometers. Kiev said it bluntly that only by destroying the supply arsenal in the rear of the Russian army would be closer to the end of the war.
However, the United States also knows in its heart that providing Army tactical missiles would be a very risky move and it is likely to drag the United States into the water. Therefore, the possibility that the United States provides is slim.
