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The US stock market has once again staged a drama of "the better the economy, the worse the stock market".
Due to the better-than-expected economic data recently released, the U.S. stock fell sharply last night.
will also release the latest CPI data next week. Next, Fed interest rate meeting will determine whether to reduce the rate hike in December. It is expected that the stock market will still fluctuate this week.
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The three major U.S. stock indexes fell simultaneously last night, and Dow Jones Industrial Index fell 482 points, a drop of 1.4%, but it was the smallest among the three major indexes.
Currently, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 33,947 points, down from the lowest level of 28,660 points in October, and the increase narrowed to 18%. It just entered the technical bull market a few days ago, and now it has left the bull market range again.
S&P 500 index fell 1.8% last night. The index exceeded the 200-day moving average last week, but the decline this year is still 16%.
Nasdaq index once again performed the worst, falling nearly 2% last night, and the annual decline was as high as 28.2%.
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For the future trend, most analysts in the market believe that as long as the current Fed's interest rate remains at a high level, economic growth will be further hindered.
survey shows that more than half of investors believe that the S&P 500 index will still decline by about 20% in 2023, which is also in line with Wall Street investment banks' expectations.
Wall Street is worried that in the next 12 months, the unsatisfactory revenue and profits of listed companies included in the S&P 500 will affect its share price.
At present, the UK has confirmed to have entered a recession. In early 2023, Europe will also experience an economic downturn, and the United States may also experience a significant shrinkage.
At the same time, although the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine is likely to not escalate conflicts, it has not been effectively resolved, which will greatly affect the supply of energy and the development of global economy .
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However, on the other hand, the current good economic data in the United States makes investors feel helpless.
First of all, the GDP in the United States was revised in the third quarter, and the current annual rate reached 2.9%, sweeping the shadow of the month-on-month decline in the first two quarters.
The next employment data exceeded expectations by 30%, and individual income continued to rise to 0.7% month-on-month, which shows that the employment market performance is still strong and wages are still growing.
also announced the IM service industry pmi last night, which is more than 50 boom line . At the same time, the Ministry of Commerce's factory orders also strengthened simultaneously.
These economic data show that the Fed still has room for a significant rate hike. Therefore, it is not ruled out that the Federal Reserve will make an unexpected decision to raise interest rates next week.
In this regard, most investors surveyed believe that the long-term bond and technology stock have the opportunity to buy.
In addition, they also believe that in 2023, real estate risks will remain high. Affected by rising borrowing costs, potential buyers will exit the market, which also causes housing prices to fall further.
On the other hand, the ever-extending interest rate hike cycle makes it difficult for the market to rise, but the economy continues to decline.
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