first tell the conclusion: Using Taiwan's experiment as a window to observe the impact of new crown abandoning control. After abandoning dynamic zeroing, the number of new crown infection cases first increased in society according to the exponential growth model, reaching a peak in two months. The number of infected people will quickly drop to about half of the peak after lasting for one month. After two months, the impact of the first wave of new crown infection tsunami after the relaxation of control is completed. There is a process of death after the COVID-19 infection. The peak of death occurred in the third month after abandoning control and fell rapidly in the later period. The number of infections and deaths dropped to the trough after the fifth month. Then it entered a new normal of new coronavirus infection and death. If my country gives up control, it is predicted that about 546,000 people will die directly and 630,000 people will die indirectly under the impact of the first wave of infection tsunami. A total of 1.176 million people died in excess. It is roughly equivalent to 1 person per 1,200 people. Then it became normal, with about 2,300 deaths per day.
Since the first case of COVID-19 was confirmed in December 2019, the new crown epidemic has been going on for three years soon. In three years, all the students who have just entered university are about to graduate, and they have almost accompanied one generation. Although humans have developed the vaccine , there will be no signs of the end of the epidemic for a while. Through continuous iterative evolution, the virus has developed to the fifth generation of Omickron stage. It is generally recognized that the mortality rate is low, but it is extremely contagious. As of October 10, the cumulative number of confirmed infections worldwide has exceeded 620 million and the number of deaths exceeds 6.55 million.
At present, most countries or regions in the world have given up control and have no choice but to adopt a resigned response strategy. Only our country has insisted on adopting a dynamic zeroing policy of strict control and control so far. It goes without saying that because it is impossible to cut off the connection with other parts of the world, the virus continues to spread from outside. This has led to the continuous recurrence of the new crown epidemic, and many places have implemented static management, which has brought various inconveniences and troubles to people's work and life. While increasing the huge epidemic prevention costs, it also brings risks to economic growth .
Many people on the Internet asked, can we give up the control and dynamic zeroing of the new crown like other countries or regions? Many scholars are also studying and thinking about this issue. I believe that our government decision-making bodies are also making decisions through continuous comparison and trade-offs.
It is simple to give up control, but it has to bear the consequences of the sudden increase in the number of infections and deaths. Can we, or are willing to bear these consequences? The new crown has been epidemic for several years. Different practices of fighting the epidemic and "lying down" have been carried out around the world. A large amount of valuable observation data has been accumulated at the cost of life. In fact, to a certain extent, more scientific and reliable analysis and evaluation can be carried out.
This article selects real statistics from Taiwan for analysis and prediction. Only data, ideas, analysis and prediction results are provided here. In fact, understanding and understanding is a very difficult choice and decision whether it is insisting on control or lying flat. Everyone can judge which one is better based on the results of analysis and prediction.
Taiwan is the best window for us to study the consequences of lying down, and there are several reasons below. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, Taiwan has been adopting the same dynamic zeroing policy as the mainland, and is cautious. This situation lasted until April 8, 2022. In the context of the complete abandonment of epidemic prevention restrictions abroad, I don’t know whether it is to pursue “political correctness” consistent with the epidemic prevention policies of Western countries, or whether Omickron is too contagious and unable to do so, and announced that he would give up resistance and choose to leave it to fate. The time they gave up control happened to correspond to the Omickron epidemic stage. Before giving up control, they also suffered very few infections and deaths due to strict prevention and control. In addition, Taiwan is the same language and species as us, and their genes, personality, culture and eating habits are extremely similar. Therefore, we can use a very good sample to study and speculate on the consequences that will occur if we choose to lie down. In addition, Taiwan will quickly announce the number of deaths and crude mortality rates of that month at the end of each month, which will greatly facilitate timely data analysis. The data analyzed in this article are from the official websites of the Ministry of Health and Welfare and the Ministry of Interior.
Since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, Taiwan has long implemented the same strict control dynamic zeroing policy as us.Both the number of infections and deaths remained at a very low level. On April 8, 2022, Taiwan announced that it had abandoned its dynamic zeroing policy of more than two years. At this time, a total of 26,263 confirmed infections and 853 deaths. The total population in Taiwan by the end of 2021 will be 23.375 million, roughly corresponding to 11.2 infections per 10,000 people and 0.36 deaths. The total population of mainland China was 1.413 billion at the end of 21. By October 7, the total number of confirmed cases of new crown was 252,638 and the total number of deaths was 5,226. Corresponding to 1.79 infections per 10,000 people and 0.037 deaths.
Taiwan announced in April that it would give up epidemic control and the changes in the number of new coronavirus infections and deaths per month from the end of September were shown in the figure below.
can be seen that after abandoning dynamic zeroing of epidemic control, the number of infected cases has increased sharply in society according to the exponential growth model, reaching a peak in two months. The number of infected people will quickly drop to about half of the peak after lasting for one month. After two months, the first wave of infection tsunami impact was completed after the relaxation of control. There is a process of death after infection. The peak of death occurs in the third month after abandoning control and falls rapidly in the later stage. The number of infections and deaths dropped to the trough after the fifth month. Then it entered a new normal of infection and death.
There is nothing new under the sun. Suppose we will follow similar evolutionary laws in Taiwan if we give up the epidemic control. Then the first wave of the epidemic tsunami after the release will last for about five months. The COVID-19 deaths in the first month will result in 724 deaths, 83,817 deaths in the second month, 265,079 deaths in the third month, 137,243 deaths in the fourth month, and 59,516 deaths in the fifth month. The infection and tsunami directly killed about 546,000 people. Then it became normal, with about 2,300 deaths per day.
This is the predicted direct death toll caused by the impact of the new crown epidemic. Regarding the deaths of a large number of people, many people say that under normal circumstances there will be many people who die, or the deaths will mostly have underlying diseases or the elderly. We need to pay attention to the number of more deaths caused by the new crown than normal, or the excess death rate is meaningful, so as to correctly evaluate the impact of deaths caused by the new crown. The statement
makes a lot of sense, so here’s the point. Let’s look at the time change chart of the number of deaths in Taiwan from January to September 2016 to September 2016.
Look at the time change chart of the rough mortality rate in Taiwan from January to September 2016 to 22. The crude mortality rate refers to the average death toll per 1,000 people in the total population in that month. Note that the proportion of deaths in the total population rather than the infected population.
00008 has been in the past 20 years, but the number of infections and deaths in the entire society has been very small in 20 years, which has little impact on the overall crude mortality rate and deaths. The 21-year rough mortality line has risen, but it is not very significant yet. Excluding the 21-year data, in the 16-20 years without the obvious impact of the new crown, the number of deaths and crude mortality rates in the same month each year fluctuated and changed, but the changes were relatively small. The lines drawn in different years were entangled, and there was no trend difference in rising or falling. In fact, the change curve of abandoning control for several months in April 222 is also intertwined with the previous years, and the difference is very small. But two months later, the death toll and crude mortality rate were significantly higher than the data for the corresponding months of the previous year. It clearly shows that the death toll and mortality rate has increased rapidly after abandoning dynamic zeroing. By averaging the crude mortality rate in the corresponding months of 2016-20, we can estimate the normal mortality rate in each month in the 5 months impacted by the epidemic tsunami, and subtract the estimated normal mortality rate from the 5 months impacted by the 22-year mortality rate data, which can obtain the excess mortality rate under the impact of the epidemic. The difference in the first month was not big. The excess mortality rates in the next four months were 0.152, 0.334, 0.178, and 0.168 respectively, and the cumulative excess mortality rate was 0.832‰. It can be calculated that if we abandon the policy of dynamic zeroing, the impact of the epidemic tsunami will result in a total of 1.176 million deaths, of which 546,000 deaths were directly killed by the new crown. The difference between the two is 630,000, which is the number of indirect deaths caused by the epidemic.
How to understand the number of indirect deaths? After abandoning control, the number of infections has increased exponentially under the impact of the tsunami of the epidemic, and a large number of patients flocked to hospitals, which will inevitably lead to a medical run, which will lead to difficulties in seeking medical treatment for people infected with the new coronavirus and patients with other diseases.The number of indirect deaths is understood as the number of deaths caused by medical runs, including additional deaths caused by COVID-19 but not hospitalization or other problems due to shortage of medical resources.
In short, taking Taiwan's practice as a window to observe that we give up dynamic zeroing, if our country abandons epidemic control, about 546,000 people will die directly under the impact of the epidemic infection tsunami, and 630,000 people will die indirectly. A total of 1.176 million people died in excess. For the total population of 1.41 billion, approximately 1 person died for every 1,200 people. Then it became normal, with about 2,300 deaths per day.
should be pointed out that this is the result of analogy analysis based on the data of large-scale practice obtained by abandoning epidemic control that has occurred in Taiwan. Considering that Taiwan’s per capita economic level, per capita medical resources and health care awareness are stronger than us, the prediction results here are conservative, and the consequences of our choice to lie down should be worse than the predicted results.
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