in the upper half of the zone, Netherlands against Argentina, Brazil Croatia ; in the lower half of the zone, England versus France, and Morocco versus Portugal. Among the top 8 teams, there are 2 teams from South America, 1 team from Africa, and the remaining 5 teams are from Europe. However, judging from the match situation, South America and Europe each have the opportunity to get a final ticket.
After all the 18th finals ended, foreign media "fivethirtyeight" updated the latest winning probability and ranked according to SPI efficiency value. Brazil is unique to 93.5! Behind him is Portugal at 87.9, England at 87.6, Argentina at 87.3, France at 87.5, and Netherlands at 84.2. In contrast, both teams in Group F that entered the quarterfinals were not favored, with Croatia only 79 and Morocco's lowest: 74.4.
In the next quarter-finals forecast, Brazil's probability of advancing to the semi-finals is 77%, which is also the highest among the top 8 teams. It seems that there is no big suspense in the quarter-finals between Brazil and Croatia. After the return of Neymar , Brazil showed strong offensive firepower. In the game against South Korea, he scored 4 goals in just 36 minutes. Neymar attracted firepower, and Richarlison + Vinicius + Rafinia around him completed the final work, and the effect was good. In the 6-1 victory over Switzerland, Portugal also showed terrible offensive killing when Cristiano Ronaldo was not on the court. Young player Ramos scored a hat-trick, and B spent seven or eight times in one game, and Portugal played very smoothly. The probability of Portugal advancing to the semi-finals is 68%. The media is optimistic that Portugal can defeat the dark horse Morocco.
In comparison, Argentina is not that optimistic. It is predicted that Argentina will advance to the semi-finals only 58%, while England and France are closest in matches: England's probability of advancing to the semi-finals is 52%, and France's probability of advancing to the semi-finals is 48%! As for the Netherlands, Croatia and Morocco, they are not favored by the media. In the probability prediction of
, Brazil is also the only one with a probability of 51%! If Brazil beats Croatia, it will have an overwhelming advantage against Argentina and the Netherlands. Simply put, if the opponent wants to limit Neymar, he must encircle him heavily, but once he does this, everyone around Neymar can seize the opportunity. This is the terrible thing about Brazil! Portugal became the most optimistic team in the second half, with a 33% chance of advancing to the finals, with England, Argentina and France ranked 3-5 respectively.
The most important thing is the probability of winning the championship trophy. After the Brazilian team was released in the quarterfinals of 8, the probability of winning the cup reached 33%. This value is a break-up lead! In addition, no matter who advances to the final, the probability of their final win is only 14%, while Argentina ranks behind these three teams, with only 13%. Here we can see the current state and strength of each team. Argentina only has Messi and as its advantage. If Di Maria and return, Argentina naturally has greater hope. Here in Portugal, after Ronaldo became a substitute, the team found an offensive method that suited them, and it was out of control! England has been very stable from the group stage to the knockout stage. The support of Kane and , Foden and + Bellingham and Henderson and are in good condition. England also has the strength to win the championship this time.
In comparison, Croatia's probability of winning the championship is only a pitiful 4%, while Morocco is even lower, only a pitiful 3%. Obviously, entering the quarterfinals may be the upper limit for these two teams. After the top 8 is decided, each team will have a rest period of at least 3-4 days. For Brazil, Neymar's injury recovery will directly determine the fate of Brazil in this World Cup. For Portugal, although Ronaldo is the absolute leader of the team, now Ronaldo is about to learn to adapt to his identity as a green leaf.
