Global macro
11 non-agricultural data exceeded expectations! US stocks three major stock index futures straight line diving
US non-agricultural employment population after the seasonal adjustment in November was 263,000, expected 200,000, the previous value was 261,000. After the non-agricultural data is released. The three major U.S. stock futures indexes plunged straight. As of press time, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 1.25%, S&P 500 index futures fell 1.59%, and Nasdaq 100 index futures fell 2.3%.
has the direction changed? US Treasury yield and the US dollar hit a low for many months
Due to the continued fermentation of dovish remarks by Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve , and the much-watched US PCE price indicators, the US Treasury yield and the USD index fell sharply again on Thursday, hitting a low for many months. At present, the Fed will slow down its pace of rate hikes at its interest rate meeting later this month. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which has "anchor of global asset pricing ", has hit its lowest level since September after falling to around the 3.50% mark. The ICE US dollar index further fell below the 105 mark overnight, setting a new low since July this year.
happy too early! Allianz Chief Advisor: Powell's speech was "misunderstood" and the market did not count the key risks
Allianz Chief Economic Advisor El Elian said that the recent rebound in U.S. stocks showed that the market "completely ignored" some of Powell's remarks about inflation, warning that investors may not count the key risks into the market. He explained that while inflation is on the decline, it is likely to remain at 4% next year due to ongoing supply chain problems and changing global dynamics. Investors have not priced this possibility, nor have they priced the resistance that credit and corporate profits could bring. "Let's not repeat the mistakes we did last year, when we all accepted the idea that inflation was temporary," he said.
Morgan Stanley: US stocks have not bottomed out, S&P 500 may fall 19% again
well-known shorts Morgan Stanley chief US stocks strategist said that the current rise in US stocks is expected to last until December, but he also believes that the S&P 500 may bottom out in the range of 3,000-3,300 points from the first quarter to the first half of 2023 (down 19% from the current level), when the Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates, and the S&P 500 will close at 3,900 points by the end of the year. The analyst expects that the combined effect of rising labor costs and weaker corporate pricing power will lead to a wave of lower returns in companies, which will put pressure on 's stock price .
After a bad year, Wall Street 20 first bearish U.S. stocks
According to a survey, Wall Street strategists' average forecast for the S&P 500 next year is down, which is the first time the overall forecast has been negative since at least 1999. The average forecast of strategists is that by the end of 2023, the S&P 500 will fall more than 1% from Thursday's closing point (4076.57 points). This shows that as the worst year since the financial crisis approaches the end of the U.S. stock market, most investors have become increasingly pessimistic.
Can global inflation return to 2%? Morgan Stanley CEO and President of World Bank : Inflation will still be a problem! While central banks in various countries have made some progress in reducing inflation, it may be difficult to get back to the 2% target level as supply chains, demographics and other challenges jointly push up prices. World Bank President Malpass also said in an interview on Thursday that inflation is still very worrying.
OPEC+ tends to keep production unchanged, oil prices may fall further
Amid growing concerns about the slowdown in the global economy and the uncertainty of Russia's mining capacity lingering, the market generally expects that OPEC+ may decide to keep production levels unchanged at its meeting this Sunday. Some analysts believe that international oil prices may continue to fall if the organization does not conduct further production cuts.
hot news
star tech stocks rose and fell differently before the market
UBS: significantly lowered the production expectations of iPhone 14, Apple may transfer OEM production capacity
According to UBS's forecast, $Apple (AAPL.US)$iPhone 14 series mobile phones may produce 16 million units less than expected this year, while iPhone 14 entry models face weak demand. UBS predicts that in order to meet the OEM needs of high-end models, Apple may also require , HSMC and Luxshare Precision to produce more high-end models; and these manufacturers usually focus on OEM manufacturers of low-end iPhone models.
took five years! Tesla's first electric truck started delivery
On Thursday local time, $TSLA (TSLA.US)$ held a delivery ceremony at its Nevada Gigafactory to deliver the first batch of Tesla Semi electric semi trailers to Pepsi . It is reported that Tesla's goal is to increase the annual production of Semi electric trucks to 50,000 by 2024, which will make Tesla one of the world's largest 8-level truck manufacturers.
Blackstone fell more than 1% before the market, and REIT encountered a large number of redemption requests and restricted investors from withdrawing investment
$Blackstone (BX.US)$ fell 1.39% before the market to $83.86. On the news front, Blackstone restricted the divestment of its $69 billion non-listed real estate earnings trust fund (REIT), after a surge in redemption requests, which has dealt an unprecedented blow to its business that helped it grow into an asset management giant. Sources said many investors in the REIT are worried that Blackstone is slow to adjust the valuation of the investment vehicle to accommodate publicly traded REIT valuations. It is reported that the fund accounts for about 17% of Blackstone's income.
does not hesitate to "pay a lot of money" to retain advertisers? Twitter plans to launch the largest advertising incentive in history
After Musk acquired Twitter, many companies withdrew their advertising on $Twitter (TWTR.US)$ or reduced advertising spending. To retain advertisers, Twitter will provide generous incentives for brand owners who advertise on their platform. Twitter may launch "the largest advertiser incentive ever" in December. If the brand’s advertising spending reaches a certain level, additional impression opportunities will be obtained. Under Twitter's new plan, customers with advertising spending of at least $500,000 will be eligible for value-added rewards equivalent to the amount of spending, with a cap of $1 million.
Mywell Technology fell more than 5% before the market, and its net income and Q4 revenue outlook were lower than expected
$Mywell Technology (MRVL.US)$ fell more than 5% before the market to $43. Maywell Technology's adjusted EPS in the third quarter was US$0.57, analysts expected US$0.59; net income in the third quarter was US$1.54 billion, analysts expected US$1.56 billion; adjusted EPS in the fourth quarter was US$0.41-0.51, analysts expected US$0.62; net income in the fourth quarter was US$1.33-1.43 billion, analysts expected US$1.62 billion.
AMCh Cinemas rose by more than 3% before the market, and the stock price hit the 200 daily moving average . A large number of bought call options in the market
$AMC Cinemas (AMC.US) closed up 13% yesterday, and rose by another 3.07% before the market today to $8.42. During the trading session yesterday, AMC theater stock price hit the 200-day moving average, while AMC theater call options trading activity was three times the average level in the past 20 days. In addition, apewisdom shows that AMC Cinema has been mentioned 112 times in the past 24 hours on Reddit's WSB page, a surge of 1,767%, ranking third.
Focus Chinese stocks
Hot Chinese stocks most popular Chinese stocks rose before the market
Shell was well received by institutions, and rose more than 3% before the market
$Shell (BEKE.US)$ rose 3.17% before the market 17.23 USD. Goldman Sachs issued a report pointing out that the strong performance of Beike's third quarter reflects the company's strong execution and operational capabilities, and promotes steady growth in the market share of and its profitability during the quarter. The bank expects that the net profit under Beike’s non-general accounting standards will reach RMB 5.4 billion next year, and the net profit of core housing transactions will exceed 2020.
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